Westerlund: The Bulls' Conundrum, Now & Later
By Cody Westerlund--
(CBS) A staple of the Tom Thibodeau era in Chicago was his gruff personality, a trait that would routinely manifest itself in his media sessions.
Ask Thibodeau a question he knew had merit but didn't want to address – for example, how do you compensate for Pau Gasol's troubles in defending the pick-and-roll? – and he was apt to follow with one of his reliable, catch-all phrases.
"The magic is in the work," Thibodeau would say grumpily, or perhaps he'd give a variation of, "It's about building winning habits."
Current Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg has his own coping mechanism of sorts for the probing queries. Ask him a question he knows has merit but doesn't want to address – for example, how do you compensate for Pau Gasol's troubles in defending the pick-and-roll? – and he may just change the topic altogether.
"A big thing early, the other thing was the glass," Hoiberg responded on Jan. 20 when he was directly asked about Gasol being exploited in the pick-and-roll. "They controlled the offensive rebounds."
There's a common theme in the responses of Thibodeau and Hoiberg. Since the start of 2014-'15, neither coach – of polar opposite personalities – has had the answers for the Bulls' maddening inconsistencies, which have been marked by slow starts, late collapses, little communication, questions of leadership and much more.
Displaying his status as a top-five coach in the league and with a 2014-'15 team that was at least healthy to start the season, Thibodeau still grinded 50 wins out of the Bulls and a trip to the second round of the playoffs before being unceremoniously fired last May for a "departure from the culture" of trust and communication.
Following Tuesday's news that All-Star guard Jimmy Butler will be out three to four more weeks for a reeling squad that's lost 12 of its last 17 to fall to 27-24, Hoiberg will need to muster up all the magic he has to lead the injury-plagued Bulls to 45 victories in his rookie NBA coaching season.
The catch, of course, is that he's no magician. Hoiberg's a sharp basketball mind with a clear sense of what he wants to do – and a misfit roster that has shown no ability to replicate what its coach wants or to listen all that well.
Hoiberg's preferred read-based, free-flowing offensive system has too often devolved into Derrick Rose-Gasol pick-and-pops or various isolations for Butler. It was Butler who by mid-December had reportedly already approached Hoiberg to ask for more plays to be run through him, a move that Hoiberg agreed to but also one that was a clear departure from a read-based system.
However successful any of these sets may be on a given night, they do little to foster the bigger-picture vision that Hoiberg carries. It's also an example of the difficulty of trying to retool a system on the fly when winning a title is the ultimate goal.
At one point in the second quarter of Monday's dispiriting 108-91 loss to the Hornets, an early February game that carried playoff implications, the Bulls were relying on a lineup that featured a player best suited for the D-League (Cam Bairstow), a rookie (Bobby Portis), a journeyman point guard (Aaron Brooks), a 2013 first-round pick who's shown little development (Tony Snell) and a 2014 first-round pick who's proved to be a shooting specialist but not starter material yet (Doug McDermott).
This was due in large part to injury – Hoiberg was even dealt the unplayable hand of Rose being a late scratch with "general body soreness" – but it nonetheless marked the depth to which the Bulls have sunk lately.
As the trade deadline approaches on Feb. 18 and the Bulls show no signs of life, a move wouldn't be surprising. What would be surprising is if the Bulls could nab any sort of asset that's vital to their future.
For this is the ultimate conundrum: The Bulls are in a poor situation now and later, if we're to view them through the prism of championship contention that management and Hoiberg have previously referenced.
With Butler out for nearly another month, there's little to suggest this current team has much hope. It's to the point many don't even want to watch anymore – literally.
On Monday, it was revealed that the Bulls' local television ratings have dropped 29 percent over last season's midpoint, according to the Sports Business Journal. You can debate how much a cultural shift toward cord-cutting has in that, but it's clear that many have tired of the current product on the floor. That the injured Rose waited until the second quarter Monday to join the team on the bench and watch the ugly loss was a joke that simply wrote itself.
As for the future? It may be a hard truth to accept, but a roster likely can't begin to be reflect Hoiberg's preferred style until the third year of his tenure. That's because the Bulls have limited assets and a confluence of other hurdles to clear, some self-inflicted and some outside their control.
On the current roster, Butler and Portis are Chicago's two building blocks for the long term. McDermott could turn into a reliable starter, but that jury's still out. Hoiberg badly wants Nikola Mirotic to display consistency so he can be a stretch-four, but he's regressed this season. Past those players, there's little.
At this rate, the Bulls will hold a mid-teens/early-20s pick in the 2016 draft. That offers a chance to net a nice player but probably not a franchise-altering one. The top-10 protect first-rounder that the Kings owe the Bulls seems unlikely to convey this year as Sacramento further spirals into dysfunction. That pick is set to be conveyed one way or another in 2017 – still top-10 protected, it turns into a second-rounder to Chicago if Sacramento is again among the league's 10 worst teams. That'd be of little value.
Without lofty draft picks or appealing current players to move, a trade of consequence will be tough to pull off. And remember, the Celtics can outbid anyone for a star, should they choose to do so.
That leaves free agency as a crucial path to improvement. It's a tricky endeavor for Chicago, which has traditionally settled for second-rate players on the open market.
If Gasol opts out and the Bulls renounce all their free agents, they figure to have around $21 million in cap space this summer. The trouble is the free-agent market is weak, and because of the impending cap spike, a load of teams will have money to throw out players. Simply put, the demand will far exceed the supply of quality players.
How poor is the depth of the free-agent class? In compiling the top 100 free agents of 2016, SB Nation's Tom Ziller recently slotted injured Bulls center Joakim Noah at No. 18 – and that ranking is more like No. 15 because the likes of LeBron James and Tim Duncan are almost certain to stay with their current teams despite opt-out clauses.
There are other variables at play for the Bulls in free agency this summer. Rose still being under contract for next season would seem to make it difficult to attract a high-profile point guard. That remains a vital position in Hoiberg's system, and the inability to count on consistency from Rose – or on nights like Monday, the availability of Rose – is delaying progress.
One intriguing free-agent option would be Warriors forward Harrison Barnes, who like Hoiberg is an Ames, Iowa native. The Bulls need more players with solid all-around skills – from Gasol to Noah to McDermott to Aaron Brooks to Kirk Hinrich to even Rose in some ways, the Bulls are too one-dimensional. Barnes is a quality defender, has good athleticism, shoots nearly 40 percent on 3-pointers and has the versatility to shift from small forward to power forward, allowing his team to play small ball.
The problem is Barnes is a restricted free agent whom Golden State can retain by matching any offer. His availability appears to depend on whether Kevin Durant is truly open to leaving the Thunder. If he is, the Warriors are the front-runners, according to The Vertical, and then may part with Barnes. The Bulls have no control over any of that.
There will be other notable talents on the open market, like Al Horford, Mike Conley, Nicolas Batum and likely DeMar DeRozan, but there will be thick competition.
In any case, the Bulls' free agency pitches in the coming years will rely on management, Hoiberg and presumably Butler doing the recruiting. And that raises another issue – after his embrace of the spotlight and his role as a leader and franchise player, would Butler's heart truly be in a recruitment of a star bigger than himself? If the Bulls can't ever net a star bigger than Butler, can they compete for a title?
These are all lingering questions, to be answered another day, but Bulls management must be weighing all of them as the trade deadline approaches.
These days are gloomy enough. They mark a stark departure from just eight months prior. It was back on June 2 at Hoiberg's introduction as the 19th coach in franchise history that the grandiose words flowed freely. That's always the vibe at introductory press conferences, but the Bulls weren't shy about noting their expectations. General manager Gar Forman spoke highly of the roster, and Hoiberg made the expectation clear.
"Absolutely this team is ready to compete for a championship, along with those core players, and then like Gar said, you add some pieces here and there and you get a good young player in the draft," Hoiberg said then.
"I love this roster. I absolutely love this roster."
It's much harder to believe that here in early February, amid these weeks of reckoning.
Cody Westerlund is a sports editor for CBSChicago.com and covers the Bulls. Follow him on Twitter @CodyWesterlund.
