Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 16
By Jack Thomason–
(670 The Score) As a reminder, this piece can be utilized for daily fantasy football and/or season-long leagues. The idea is to create one-stop showfor sleepers at each position, no matter what league you're playing. Best of luck to everyone in Week 16!
Quarterback
Drew Stanton, Cardinals (vs. Giants) — The Cardinals are going back to Stanton as their starting quarterback, and he's in play as a sleeper for no other reason than being minimum price on both sites and facing off against the Giants., who rank 25th in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA and 28th in 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. The Giants just allowed four passing touchdowns and 237 yards to eagles backup quarterback Nick Foles. It won't take much for Stanton to hit value at these prices, and the Cardinals are 3.5-point home favorites. (FanDuel: $6000; DraftKings: $4500)
Andy Dalton, Benglas (vs. Lions) —There hasn't been anything much of late to celebrate with Dalton. Going to Minnesota was a known difficult matchup, but many folks, including myself, expected much more two weeks ago at home against the Bears. Now Dalton will play a Lions team that ranks 26th in aFPA to quarterbacks and 16th in pass DVOA, yet his price is suppressed due to the poor performance in the last two weeks. The Bengals are five-point home underdogs, and Dalton historically has played better against uncommon opponents. (FD: $6900; DK: $4800)
Running back
Mike Gillislee, Patriots (vs. Bills) —With Rex Burkhead doubtful to play after a knee injury, its quite possible we'll see additional work for James White and Gillislee as complements to Dion Lewis. There's some discussions around concern for Bills players retaliating to the cheap shot that Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski took on Tre'Davious White a few weeks back, giving him a concussion. That being said, there's a possibility of a run-heavy approach, which would likely lend some playing time to Gillislee. The Patriots are also 12.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 29.75 points. If Gillislee is active (he should be), I could see him being the sledgehammer who salts the game away if the Patriots are up as New England focuses on keeping key players healthy for their playoff run. It helps that the Bills are ranked 31st in aFPA to running backs and 28th in run DVOA. (FD: $4500; DK: $3900)
Kerwynn Williams, Cardinals (vs. Giants) — As mentioned above withStanton, this play is about the Cardinals being 3.5-point home favorites and the Giants defense. New York has allowed eight straight games of 100 yards or more on the ground and ranks 24th in run DVOA as well as 30th in aFPA to running backs. Williams continues to see the bulk of the work as far as rushing attempts and is the favorite for goal-line work, if healthy. Be sure to check back on his quad injury to ensure he's ready to play. (FD: $5700; DK: $4300)
Receiver
Keelan Cole, Jaguars (at 49ers) — We might as well try again! I was so confident it would be Dede Westbrook last week who popped against the Texans. Instead, it was Cole who went for seven catches for 186 yards and a score. With Marquise Lee out of the lineup, Cole and Westbrook will be the starting receivers for the Jaguars, who have a solid matchup against the 49ers, who own the No. 31 ranking in pass DVOA. They also rank 27th, 26th, and 30th in DVOA to the respective receiver positions. Jacksonville is a four-point road favorite with an implied team total of 23.25 points. I like Cole to show off his skills again in this one. (FD: $5300; DK: $4700)
Kendall Wright, Bears (vs. Browns) — Over the last two weeks, Wright has caught 17 passes on 24 targets and has tallied 188 yards receiving. Believe it or not, the Bears are 6.5-point home favorites over the Browns with an implied team total of 22.25 points. I'm sure we'll see plenty of Jordan Howard in this one, but the Bears still need to score points to earn that 6.5-point spread, and Wright has been the go-to receiver for Mitchell Trubisky of late. I like his chances of producing at this cost, given the Browns rank 28th in pass DVOA. He's better suited for PPR leagues but can be used on FanDuel as well. (FD: $5100; DK: $3800)
Tight end
Vernon Davis, Redskins (vs. Broncos) — Davis has been awfully quiet of late outside of the touchdown he had two weeks ago, but this is a great matchup that fantasy owners have been exploiting for most the season. The Broncos rank 25th in aFPA and 26th pass DVOA to tight ends and with the rest of their secondary likely to lock down Redskins' receivers, Davis should see plenty of looks. Washington is a 3.5-point home favorite with an implied team total of 22.25 points. (FD: $6000; DK: $3400)
Tyler Kroft, Benglas (vs. Lions) — The Bengals are five-point home underdogs and should have to throw to keep up with the Lions, which gives Kroft one value here. He's far more affordable on DraftKings, but he's really a touchdown-or-bust option. He's here because the Lions have been giving up plenty of scores to tight ends and rank 26th in aFPA and 25th in DVOA to the position. Kroft hasn't done much for most of the year, but in plus matchups for tight ends against the Browns (twice), Broncos and Steelers, Kroft has made it into the end zone. (FD: $5300; DK: $2600)
Just missed: Mitchell Trubisky, Joe Flacco, Mike Davis, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Wallace, Dede Westbrook, Ricky Seals-Jones and Ben Watson.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and weekly guest of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
