Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 14
By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) As a reminder, this piece can be utilized for daily fantasy football and/or season-long leagues. The idea is to create one-stop show for sleepers at each position, no matter what league you're playing. Best of luck to everyone in Week 14.
Quarterback
DeShone Kizer, Browns (vs. Packers) — Kizer has four games with more than 19.5 points this year. He's tied for a league-leading five rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. He's got weapons in Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman and David Njoku and provides a lot of stability with his legs, ranking fourth in the NFL among quarterbacks in rushing yards. Now that we're in Week 14, he's getting a little more comfortable in the offense and will face off against a Packers defense that struggle against the pass. Green Bay ranks 31st in 4for4's adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks and 21st in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA. The Packers also rank 29th, 26th and 22nd to WR1, WR2 and tight ends in pass DVOA, respectively, setting up for Kizer to have a potential big game at home. There's upside in these prices. (FanDuel: $6400; DraftKings: $4900)
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (vs. Lions) — While the Lions rank 16th in pass DVOA, they're quietly sporting a ranking of 28th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Winston is making his second start since returning from injury. Last week, he knocked off the rust by throwing 270-yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay. This week, he's home and potentially squaring off with a Matt Stafford-less Lions team. The current spread and game total is unavailable while we wait for information on Stafford's availability, but this is a good spot for Winston, and I wouldn't hesitate to use him. His FanDuel pricing is superior to DraftKings, as he's the 21st-priced quarterback rather than the 15th, respectively. (FD: $7200; DK: $5900)
Running back
Peyton Barber, Buccaneers (vs. Lions) — While many of assumed Jacquizz Rodgers would be the starting running back last week with Doug Martin out, it was Barber who stole the show. He piled up 23 carries for 102 yards and added another 41 yards on four receptions.Martin hasn't rushed for triple digits since Week 11 of 2015, so there's a good chance this backfield is now Barber's. At the least, they'll give him another chance to seize it for good after that performance. The Lions are working with the 25th-ranked rush defense, according to DVOA, and 20th in aFPA to running backs. Get Barber in your lineup if Martin is out again. (FD: $5500; DK: $4500)
Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (vs. Patriots) — Drake put on a show as the feature back in Miami last week, racking up up 141 total yards on 26 touches, including a 42-yard touchdown scamper. Drake played 74 percent of the snaps and received 84 percent of the touches, making him an official workhorse. No matter the game script on Monday against the Patriots, Drake will be involved. Vegas has the Dolphins as 11-point underdogs, but the Patriots also 32nd in run DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA to running backs. The Dolphins can get blown out, and Drake can still get his. Volume is king in fantasy, and Drake's going to see plenty of it. (FD: $6200; DK: $5400)
Receiver
Josh Gordon, Browns (vs. Packers) — There aren't many human beings who can walk onto an NFL field after a three-year hiatus and throw up 85 yards on four receptions against a top-ranked cornerback and pass defense. Then again, Gordon is a physical specimen and not nearly an average person. As I mentioned earlier, the Packers rank 29th to No. 1 receivers in pass DVOA, and they rank dead last in aFPA to receivers, as well. In Gordon's first game back, he led the team with 11 targets, which was also good for ninth-best on the week, and he also played 76 percent of the snaps. His FanDuel price is where the true value lies, but both are good when talking about the type of monstrous upside he provides. (FD: $6700; DK: $5500)
Martavis Bryant, Steelers (vs. Ravens) — With JuJu Smith-Schuster set to serve a one-game ban for his hit on Vontaze Burfict, Bryant should be thrust into the No. 2 role once again. When Smith-Schuster sat out with a hamstring injury a couple weeks ago, Bryant saw six targets, catching four balls for 40 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens are without star cornerback Jimmy Smith for the rest of the season, and Antonio Brown is dealing with a toe injury. There should be ample opportunity for Bryant to show off the size and speed he possesses en route to a good fantasy day. The Steelers are currently five-point home favorites with an implied team total of 23.25 points. (FD: $5800; DK: $4500)
Tight end
Jack Doyle, Colts (at Bills) — The Bills rank 12th in pass DVOA to tight ends and 19th in aFPA to the position. That being said, they were just torched by Rob Gronkowski and have shown their weakness against tight ends at times. And Doyle is always a favorite target of Jacboy Brissett. He didn't fare too well against the Jaguars last week, catching three balls for just 16 yards, but he did see five targets and has seen at least that many in every game this year but one. Look for Doyle to get back on track and provide value at his price. (FD: $5400; DK: $4900)
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (vs. Lions) — With James Winston back under center, Brate was relevant again. He may have only caught two balls, but they were both for touchdowns and he tallied 39 yards. Who cares how many passes you're catching when they're going for scores? We know Winston loves to target Brate in the red zone, and the Lions are awful at covering the tight end position, allowing 15.9 points per game (aFPA) and ranking 31st in pass DVOA. Heck, they even let Ben Watson get in the end zone last week. (FD: $5400; DK: $4100)
Just Missed: Jacoby Brissett, Blaine Gabbert, Alex Collins, Jay Ajayi, Dede Westbrook, Ryan Grant, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Trey Burton (if Zach Ertz is out).
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and weekly guest of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
