Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 14
By Jack Thomason--
(CBS) Some of these players may still have a chance to be on waivers. At this point in the season, this article is mostly about value plays within daily fantasy and, to a lesser degree, some players who you may be thinking about playing who are on your bench. As the season wears on, it gets harder and harder to pick sleepers in season-long leagues because the majority of quality players or players who could be considered sleepers are already rostered.
Let's take a look at this week's sleepers/value plays for both season-long and daily fantasy leagues.
Quarterback
Johnny Manziel, Browns (vs. 49ers) – Manziel has been renamed the starting quarterback for the Browns, and his price ($6400 on FanDuel and $5000 on DraftKings) is awfully enticing if you want to punt the quarterback position. Manziel and the Browns host the 49ers, a team that ranks 30th in pass defense, per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. In Manziel's last start, he faced Pittsburgh on the road and threw for 373 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Manziel's auditioning for next year's starting position and always presents upside given his dual-threat ability.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (vs. Chargers) – The Chargers rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, and Smith has the Chiefs on a roll. He's another dual-threat quarterback who can give you points on the ground and through the air. Last week, Smith had 162 yards and two touchdowns through the air and added 23 yards and a score on the ground. There's a lot of value to be had in this matchup at Smith's price($6800 FD, $5100 DK). Even without the rushing touchdown, Smith hit value in Week 13.
Running back
David Johnson, Cardinals (vs. Vikings) – It's the same story as last week, but until the price rises, Johnson's going to be a value play. You should ride the hot hand. Johnson took on a tough St. Louis defense on the road last week, totaling 24 touches, 120 yards and a touchdown. He's the clear lead back for one of the NFL's top offenses and gets a date with Minnesota's 25th-ranked rush defense perDVOA. It's at home, where the Cardinals are early 7.5-point favorites. The Vikings are also on a short week after getting dismantled by the Seahawks at home. With Johnson sitting at price tags of $6500 and $4300 on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively, I'll have him anywhere.
Darren Sproles, Eagles (vs. Bills) – Maybe it's a dash of recency bias, but the Eagles chose to use Sproles as their lead back because they were facing a tough run defense with bigger linebackers in New England. Well, the same could be said for the Buffalo Bills' defense that the Eagles will match up against this week. Just think back to when the Patriots tore apart the Bills with Dion Lewis -- Eagles coach Chip Kelly may be looking to do the same. Couple that possibility with Ryan Mathews' concussion issue (he's expected back in Week 14 but may take a lesser load) and DeMarco Murray going to the owner of the Eagles to complain about playing time, and we just may see Sproles as a steal at $5100 on FanDuel and $3500 on DraftKings.
Receiver
Stevie Johnson, Chargers (at Chiefs) – The Chargers are 10-point road dogs, and that should mean plenty of passing while playing catch-up. That would create plenty of opportunities for default No. 1 receiver Johnson, as long as he's healthy for this game. Johnson's battling a groin injury, so be sure to check back in on whether he's ready for this Sunday's game. If he is, play him, given his price of $5800 on FanDuel and $4600 on DraftKings. Before last Sunday's injury-plagued game, he had three straight seven-reception games.
DaVante Parker, Dolphins (vs. Giants) – Parker showed the elite talent that made him the 14th overall pick in this past draft when he jumped out of the building to catch a 47-yard score last weekend. The Giants are allowing the most passing yards per game (315) and rank 27th in pass defense DVOA. Parker has been targeted 15 times the last two weeks and is getting hot at the right time. More chances will continue to come his way, and the Dolphins are current home underdogs (+1.5). His price is $5900 on FanDuel and $4000 on DraftKings.
Tight end
Austin Seferian-Jenkins Buccaneers (vs. Saints) – Seferian-Jenkins is playing New Orleans -- need I say more? Last weekend, he caught three balls for 31 yards and saw six targets, which was second on the team. Seferian-Jenkins also dropped a would-be touchdown and did all this while playing only 30 percent of the snaps. He did miss the previous nine games with a shoulder injury, so he was likely being eased back into playing. Now after a week to shake off the rust, Seferian-Jenkins gets the Saints, who have been abused by all passing offenses and the tight end position. Consider this one a gift. ($5500 on FD; $2700 DK)
Zach Miller, Bears (vs. Redskins) – The price would surely be higher if Martellus Bennett had gone on injured reserve earlier than Tuesday, but he didn't, and we now get an opportunity to take advantage of the scenario. While quarterback Jay Cutler's primary target is Alshon Jeffery, he's long been a fan of Miller, who's enjoying a breakout in recent weeks and has the job all to himself now. The Redskins rank 21st in DVOA against tight ends, so there's opportunity for Miller to return value on his price. ($4900 on FD; $2700 on DK)
Others considered: Blaine Gabbert, Tyrod Taylor, Shaun Draughn, James White, Tyler Lockett, John Brown, Vance McDonald and Will Tye.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
