Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 13
By Jack Thomason--
(CBS) There are no bye weeks remaining, and injuries have struck us all. This marks a crucial week for those attempting to make the playoffs, lock up a bye or who have the chance to play spoiler. If you're in need of some spot starts because of injury, looking for a plus matchup in general because of lack of depth or just want to know some cheap options to use in daily fantasy, I have what you need.
Let's take a look at this week's sleepers/value plays for both season-long and daily fantasy leagues.
Quarterback
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (vs. 49ers) – Last week, the 49ers defense put up a good fight, but it was an emotional division game that ended in a loss to the Cardinals. Now San Francisco travels to Chicago, which is coming off a monster win against rival Green Bay. The Bears have been impressive of late, and they're gaining momentum offensively and finally getting healthy. Cutler will have his chance against the 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense and should put up some nice numbers at his price point. It's easy money slotting him in this week with Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery back in action. The Bears have a lofty team total of 25 points. ($7000 on FanDuel; $5100 on DraftKings)
Matt Hasselbeck, Colts (at Steelers) – Fresh off a 315-yard, two-touchdown performance, Hasselbeck continues to show he still has it. The Steelers are fresh off allowing five passing touchdowns to Russell Wilson and sport the 19th-ranked DVOA pass defense while carrying the ninth-best run defense. With the passing game the way to attack Pittsburgh and the fact that 32-year-old Frank Gore is slowing tremendously, this game sets up nicely for Hasselbeck to put up fantasy points. He's a better value on FanDuel, but I'd be OK with his price tag on DraftKings as well. ($6500 on FD; $5300 on DK)
Running back
David Johnson, Cardinals (at Rams) – This really can't be deemed a "sleeper" pick, but at prices of $5900 on FanDuel and $3400 on DraftKings, Johnson is a "value" all day long. With recent injuries to Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington, Johnson is thrust into the starting role for the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense (35.5 points per game). He also has eight multi-purpose touchdowns on limited touches this year (four rushing, three receiving and one kickoff return), and the Cardinals are six-point favorites while on the road. While Stepfan Taylor will be involved, the Cardinals have shown a propensity to use Johnson at the goal line this year, so I wouldn't expect that to change. They may want to find out what it is they have in this physical specimen, so expect the Cardinals to unleash the beast.
Shaun Draughn, 49ers (at Bears) – Picking a road dog running back is never the smartest play, but there are a few aspects that can no longer be ignored with Draughn, who has 60 touches in his last three games. Let me repeat: He has 60 touches in the past three weeks, good for an average of 20 per game, and he hasn't totaled fewer than 77 yards in any of them. He's also first in the NFL in targets (16) and receptions (13) for running backs over the last two weeks. Lastly, Draughn owns 100 percent of the 49ers' backfield and matches up with a soft Bears run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. Even though the 49ers have a team total of 18 points projected, this presents the best matchup and opportunity to score for Draughn over his first four games as the starter. Sign me up at $5900 on FanDuel and $4000 on DraftKings.
Receiver
Anquan Boldin, 49ers (at Bears) – I know, another 49er, what am I thinking? Well, this one is almost as easy as Draughn. Taking out the two games Boldin was injured for and going back to Week 5, Boldin has seen at least seven targets and has only one game under 93 yards. Those are rock-solid WR2 numbers, and he's averaging 12.8 points per game in .5 PPR scoring leagues over that span. Boldin sits at a silly price of $6000 on FanDuel and $4100 on DraftKings and takes on a Bears defense that ranks 16th in pass DVOA. While the Bears have been good against the pass lately, the volume is there for Boldin to return on those prices. The Bears also rank 25th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers.
Danny Amendola, Patriots (vs. Eagles) – Amendola's likely to play this week after sitting out last week, and star tight end Rob Gronkowski isn't going to play. That coupled with the Patriots playing an Eagles team that has allowed 90 points combined in the last two games should sum up why Amendola is a great play at his price. The Eagles have all but packed it in, allowing 10 passing touchdown between Jameis Winston and Matt Stafford in the last two weeks -- and neither is Tom Brady with an angry team coming off its first loss of the year. ($6700 on FD; $4700 on DK)
Tight end
Scott Chandler, Patriots (vs. Eagles) – You know the drill here. The Patriots are thin on pass catchers, and their most prolific offensive weapon is out for this game. Chandler was already a huge part of the offense last week, seeing 11 targets and plucking five of them out of the air for 58 yards and a score. That was with Gronkowski healthy. Now Chandler will be playing the 1A tight end role and should dominate targets and red-zone opportunities against a porous Eagle defense. The Eagles have been strong against tight ends, ranking 11th in DVOA, but there will be too much volume for Chandler to not end up a value at his price point, especially on DraftKings. ($5300 on FD; $2500 on DK)
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (vs. Seahawks) – Rudolph has come to life in the last couple of weeks, totaling 18 targets, 13 receptions for 159 yards and a touchdown. These are season-highs for him in targets, receptions and yards. While the offense clearly runs through ageless Adrian Peterson, Rudolph has become a safety blanket for Teddy Bridgewater and the second pass option behind Stefon Diggs. At $5100 on FanDuel and $3700 on DraftKings, Rudolph makes a nice play against the Seattle defense that ranks 29th against tight ends.
Others considered: Matt Schaub, Ryan Tannehill, Jay Ajayi, Alfred Blue, Seth Roberts, DaVante Parker, Vance McDonald and Will Tye.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
