Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 12
By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) As a reminder, this piece can be utilized for daily fantasy football and/or season-long leagues. The idea is to create one-stop show for sleepers at each position, no matter what league you're playing. Best of luck to everyone in Week 12.
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett, Colts (vs. Titans) — Brissett is coming off a bye and gets a solid matchup against a Titans defense that was just scorched by Ben Roethlisberger for 299 yards and four passing touchdowns. They rank 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks and 26th in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA. The Colts have an implied team total of 20.25 points and are three-point home underdogs, but this game has sneaky shootout potential in my mind. (FanDuel: $6900; DraftKings: $5400)
Andy Dalton, Bengals (vs. Browns) — The Browns are a putrid pass defense, ranking 31st in aFPA and 24th in pass DVOA. They're also the definition of a pass-funnel defense, ranking first in run DVOA. The Bengals are eight-point home favorites and have a team total of 23 points, not to mention Andy Dalton threw three touchdowns in Denver last week and now has five touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two games, which both came on the road. (FD: $7200; DK: $6000)
Running back
Dion Lewis, Patriots (vs. Dolphins) — Lewis continues to lead the way in the Patriots backfield in touches, regardless if he leads in snap share. Miami has been struggling against the run of late and fell to 15th in run DVOA to go along with its No. 31 ranking in pass DVOA. New England boasts a 32.5-point team total and is currently a 17-point favorite. Lewis is going to have ample opportunities to score and bleed the clock. There's significant value in his price, and he was finally part of the passing game last week, something we hadn't seen in the previous weeks. (FD: $6200; DK: $4800)
J.D. McKissic, Seahawks (at 49ers) — McKissic is almost land man standing in the Seattle backfield. While Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy are still around,they've done nothing all season. McKissic has now led the backfield in snaps the last two weeks and led the team in touches last week. The 49ers are the most giving defense of them all when it comes to opposing running backs, ranking 32nd in aFPA and 23rd in run DVOA. McKissic also provides the benefit of pass-receiving skills and fits much better in this new high-flying, Russel Wilson-led offense that revolves around the passing game. With Seattle coming in as big-time road favorites, you could make the argument Rawls or Lacy or even Mike Davis could run the clock with a large lead and pile up fantasy points, but none of them have shown the ability this season. Give me McKissic at these prices. (FD: $5500; DK: $3700)
Receiver
Corey Coleman, Browns (at Bengals) — The Bengals are stingy against opposing receivers, but this play is about value. Coleman made his debut after coming off injured reserve and saw 11 targets, catching six for 80 yards against the stingiest defense of them all in the Jaguars. If he can do that against Jacksonville, he can provide value at these prices against Cincinnati. With the Browns being eight-point underdogs, they'll be throwing a lot, per usual, and that'll benefit Coleman. (FD: $5800; DK: $4300)
Mike Wallace, Ravens (vs. Texans) — Wallace has back-to-back games now with touchdowns and seems to be over his injury woes. Wallace has the type of skill set that has been punishing the Texans all year and is sitting in a great spot with his deep speed to get in the end zone for a third week in a row. Going back to Paul Richardson, Tyler Lockett, Sammy Watkins and more, the Texans have allowed all of these speedy receivers to get behind them for scores. They rank 27th in DVOA to No. 1 receivers, 31st to No. 2 receivers and 31st in aFPA to the position. The Ravens are 7.5-point favorites, and the Texans rank No. 1 in aFPA to running backs. (FD: $5600; DK: $4400)
Tight end
Jared Cook, Raiders (vs. Broncos) — Cook has seen at least five targets in every game this year but one and hit double-digit points in two of his last four games. He'll get a Broncos defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA to tight ends and 27th in pass DVOA to the position as well. The Broncos defense hasn't played well over the last three games, and the Raiders will be looking to rebound after getting crushed by the Patriots. The Raiders are also five-point home favorites and sporting a team total of 24.25 points. (FD: $5500; DK: $4600)
Tyler Kroft, Bengals (vs. Browns) — You start your tight ends against the Broncos, the Giants and the Browns if you want to have fantasy success at a difficult position. Kroft isn't seeing high volume, but he's seeing important volume with targets inside the red zone. He has four touchdowns on the season, including two in his last five games, and the Browns are rank 30th in aFPA and 32nd in pass DVOA to tight ends. (FD: $5700; DK: $3900)
Just missed: Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Latavius Murray, Devontae Booker, Josh Doctson, Kenny Stills, Kyle Rudolph and Julius Thomas.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and weekly guest of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
