Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 12
By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) Let's check out the Week 12 sleepers and daily fantasy value.
Quarterback
Carson Palmer, Cardinals (at Falcons) — No one is excited to see Palmer's name here with the way he and the Cardinals have been playing offensively, but the Falcons rank 22nd against the pass in DVOA, and the Cardinals have a solid Vegas team total (23.25) while on the road. At this price, 250 yards and a couple scores will be all he needs to exceed value. Arizona will be playing in a game that carries huge playoff implications. (FanDuel: $7100; DraftKings: $5100)
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers (at Dolphins) — Kaepernick continues to show a solid floor and a quality ceiling. He's averaging just fewer than 20 points per game in typical quarterback scoring formats. The 49ers never really have a significant team total implied by Vegas, but their defensive woes allow for them to play from behind often, which is a positive for Kaepernick's fantasy stats. They also run the fastest-paced offense in the league, which allows for more plays and more opportunities for fantasy goodness. (FD: $7200; DK: $5700)
Running back
Rashad Jennings, Giants (at Cleveland) — Is it that time again? Last year, Jennings came on strong at the end of the season when the Giants committed to him, and they're starting to do it again. His snap counts have been on the rise weekly since returning from injury, and he was at his best Sunday when he was salting away the game and the Bears knew the run was coming. He totaled 129 yards on 26 touches and scored a touchdown as well. That's a week after he had 18 touches and 109 total yards against the Bengals. Now he gets a Browns defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the run and was just lit up by Le'Veon Bell for 201 total yards and a score on 36 touches. (FD: $6600; DK: $5600)
Wendell Smallwood, Eagles (vs. Packers) — Smallwood was hand-picked by this Eagles organization, and he's currently last man standing with injuries to Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews. Over the last two weeks, Smallwood has seen 30 touches for 149 yards. While the Packers have been a stingy run defense, ranking fifth in DVOA, Smallwood has opportunity for a large workload and the game script in his favor. The Eagles are three-and-a-half point home favorites, and Smallwood can do damage in the running and passing game. (FD: $5700; DK: $4300)
Receiver
Jordan Matthews, Eagles (vs. Packers) — The Packers' decimated secondary can't stop anyone right now, and Carson Wentz should target Matthews heavily. Matthews runs 73 percent of his routes from the slot, meaning he'll be facing off with Micah Hyde, who has been burned repeatedly this year. Matthews has seen an abundance of targets in the last four weeks, averaging 11.25 per game and no game under 10 during that span. (FD: $5600; DK: $5000)
Steve Smith, Ravens (vs. Bengals) — Smith is the clear No. 1 receiver for the Ravens. Even at age 38, coming off an Achilles injury, he continues to marvel. Over his last six games, Smith is averaging six receptions for 72 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. The Bengals rank 20th in pass DVOA and per Pro Football Focus' CB/WR chart, Smith has a plus matchup this week against Josh Shaw. The value is better on FanDuel than DraftKings, but either way he's worth it. (FD: $6300; DK: $6000)
Tight end
C.J. Fiedorowicz, Texans (vs. Chargers) — Quietly, Fiedorowicz has become a reliable option at the tight end position. In five of his last seven games, he's seen seven or more targets. And since Week 4, he's seen at least five targets in every game. Over the same span, he's topped 60 yards three times, has scored three touchdowns and has at least five receptions in four of seven contests. The Chargers rank 14th in DVOA against tight ends, making Fiedorowicz a solid play at his price point. (FD: $5200; DK: $3300)
Will Tye, Giants (at Browns) — Tye caught two balls last week, with one going for a touchdown, and at his price with a matchup against the Browns here, I could see him scoring another and grabbing four balls for 40 or so yards. The Browns rank 30th against the tight end in DVOA, making Tye worthwhile as a near minimum-priced option and punt play at the position. (FD: $4600; DK: $3000)
Just missed: Scott Tolzein, Josh McCown, Chris Ivory, Matt Forte, Rishard Matthews, Tyler Boyd, Zach Ertz and Austin Hooper.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
