Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 12
By Jack Thomason--
(CBS) Let's take a look at this week's sleepers/value plays for both season-long and daily fantasy leagues.
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer, Houston Texans (vs. Saints) – Hoyer's playing the Saints and gets the start for the Texans if healthy. Not much more is needed to be said, but it would be boring if that's all I wrote. The Saints rank 32nd in pass DVOA, and Hoyer has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. The only game he didn't was against the Bengals, in which he left with a concussion. The matchup is prime for the taking, and Hoyer has stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins to throw to and a healthy Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts, too. Fire him up, and don't look back. ($7,100 on FanDuel; $5,000 on DraftKings)
Josh McCown, Browns (vs. Ravens) – Johnny Manziel has been demoted to third string for his party antics during the bye week. With that, McCown has been reinstated as the starter, and the last time he played the Ravens in Baltimore, he dropped 457 yards and three scores on them. Now, he gets the Ravens' 27th-ranked pass defense, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The Browns are coming off a bye, and the Ravens have just lost starting quarterback Joe Flacco and starting running back Justin Forsett to season-ending injuries. Give me McCown all day at $6,300 on FanDuel and $5,000 on DraftKings.
Running back
Thomas Rawls, Seahawks (vs. Steelers) – Marshawn Lynch isn't expected to play Sunday, and Rawls is coming off a monster 255-total-yard performance in which he hit pay dirt twice. While that can't be expected again, the volume will be. He may not see 33 touches again, but 20 to 25 carries is a reasonable expectation. The Steelers boast the sixth-best DVOA rush defense, so this is no cake matchup. But at his price, with the volume and the Seahawks' offensive philosophy, Rawls makes for a solid play at $6,300 on FanDuel and $4,500 on DraftKings. The Seahawks are opening as four-point favorites at home, and that's always a positive for the home running back.
Javorius (Buck) Allen, Ravens (at Browns) – This situation is similar to Rawls', as Allen is now the lead dog for the Ravens' offense. He's a dual-threat running back, so game flow shouldn't hurt him, and the price is right. He's carrying a $6,300 tag on FanDuel and a $4,600 tag on DraftKings, both reasonable for a running back coming off of a 27-touch (five of which were receptions), 115-yard performance. Now he gets to take on the Browns' 29th-ranked run defense, per the DVOA metric. Yes, please.
Receiver
Devin Funchess, Panthers (at Cowboys) – The rookie Funchess ranks 11th in fantasy points over the last three weeks, scoring in two of three games and seeing more playing time of late. Funchess led the 10-0 Panthers in targets last week with eight, catching four balls for 64 yards and a score. He played a season-high 78 percent of the offensive snaps and ran a season-high 35 routes as well. As long as Corey (Philly) Brown is out again, you can slot Funchess in your lineup and feel comfortable about him being a primary target for Cam Newton. He's averaging 58.7 receiving yards over his last three games and seems to have earned an expanded role. MVP candidate Newton will need him down the stretch. He sits at $5,900 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings.
Stevie Johnson, Chargers (at Jaguars) – It's the same old story with Johnson, whose ceiling may very well be capped -- but his floor, in the point-per-reception setting, is rock solid. Last week, he tallied seven receptions for 54 yards and saw a team-high eight targets. This week, he will face off against the Jaguars' pass defense that's 30th in DVOA and once again should lead the Chargers in targets. To play Johnson as your WR3 in season-long leagues or daily fantasy is a great value. (FanDuel: $5,600; DraftKings: $4,500)
Tight end
Brent Celek, Eagles (at Lions) – After Zach Ertz went down with a neck injury, Celek soaked up 10 targets and caught seven balls for 79 yards. He was the top receiver on the team and had the most targets as well. While I'm not a big fan of his price tag on FanDuel ($5,800), I do like his price point on DraftKings ($3200). Ertz is looking doubtful for Thursday's show down with the Lions, which will mean Celek is the primary tight end. The Lions rank 26th against the tight end in DVOA.
Julius Thomas, Jaguars (vs. Chargers) – Last week, Thomas saw eight targets for the second time in three weeks since the Jaguars' bye and scored his second touchdown of the season. He has been hit or miss all season long -- mostly miss, but the volume is starting to show up and he will face off against a Chargers team ranking 29th in DVOA against the tight end. His prices on FanDuel ($5,300) and DraftKings ($3,400) are something to take advantage of this week.
Others considered: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Hasselbeck, Spencer Ware, Shaun Draughn, Travis Benjamin, John Brown, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Kyle Rudolph.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
