Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 11
By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) As a reminder, this piece can be utilized for daily fantasy football and/or season-long leagues. The idea is to create one-stop show for sleepers at each position, no matter what league you're playing. Best of luck to everyone in Week 11.
Quarterback
Jay Cutler, Dolphins (vs. Buccaneers) — The Buccaneers rank 28th in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA and 25th in 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Cutler is a risky proposition any time we start talking about using him, but as 2.5-point home favorites and with a healthy receiving core, Cutler can provide salary relief and upside at the quarterback position. (FanDuel: $6600; DraftKings: $5400)
Joe Flacco, Ravens (at Packers) — Trust me, I'm not feeling comfortable writing down Flacco and Cutler, but their matchups and price points have them worthy of being in the sleeper/value conversation. The Packers rank 23rd in pass DVOA and just let Bears rookie Mitchell Trubisky throw for a career-high 297-yards. Flacco will be trotting in with a full complement of weapons, and that may include Danny Woodhead, who has been out since Week 1. The Ravens are two-point favorites on the road, and I believe we can squeeze 225 yards and two scores out of Flacco this week, even though that's happened just once this year -- last week. (FD: $6600; DK: $4900)
Running back
Rex Burkhead, Patriots (at Raiders) — The Patriots are sporting at 29.5-point team total, and Burkhead is coming off a game in which he led the running backs with 51 percent of the snaps and had 13 touches. Burkhead continues to play a jack-of-all-trades role now that he's fully healthy, and the arrow is pointing up. Over the last three weeks, his snap rates have risen from 18 percent to 31 percent to 51 percent. The Raiders rank in the bottom three in aFPA to running backs, 28th in pass DVOA to running backs and 24th in run DVOA. (FD: $5700; DK: $3600)
Tevin Coleman, Falcons (at Seahawks) — With Devonta Freeman expected to miss Monday's game and possibly more, Coleman sets up as a solid value given the number of touches he'll see. Coleman had 21 touches last week, scoring a touchdown and totaling 88 yards. He now gets a tough Seattle defense that ranks seventh in aFPA and 10th in run DVOA, but the Seahawks also have some injuries of their own with Richard Sherman and Cliff Avril done for the year and Earl Thomas still in question. The injuries set up well for Matt Ryan and the passing game, which could also take pressure off of Coleman given the inability to stack the box. He's a better value on FanDuel. (FD: $5900; DK: $5800)
Receiver
DeVante Parker, Dolphins (vs. Buccaneers) — Once again, the value here is more on the FanDuel side than DraftKings. The Bucs have been religiosuly taken to town by perimeter receivers this year, and it was no different last week when the Jets' Robby Anderson tallied four reception for 85 yards and a touchdown. Parker is the outside threat for the Dolphins, along with Kenny Stills. He's second on the team in averaging 7.5 targets per game and should find himself in a positive situation, as the Bucs rank 25th in DVOA to No. 1 receivers. (FD: $6200; DK: $6500)
Danny Amendola, Patriots (at Raiders) — The Raiders rank 32nd pass DVOA and 28th to other receivers in pass DVOA, making this a nice matchup for Amendola. Chris Hogan is likely to be out again this week, and while the running backs and tight ends are heavily involved in the offense, Amendola will be a key target underneath. He saw four targets last week, but that was due to his brutal matchup with Chris Harris Jr.. This week will be a much different story. Oakland also ranks 24th in aFPA to receivers, and New England is slated to score almost 30 points. (FD: $5400; DK: $5700)
Tight end
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (at Dolphins) — Brate didn't pan out so well last week, but he's in another phenomenal spot as the Dolphins consistently get beat by tight ends. They rank 23rd in pass DVOA and 30th in aFPA to the position, and the Bucs are struggling to run the ball, which means they should rely more on the passing game to move their offense. Miami has been getting lit up and rank 21st in rush DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. (FD: $5500; DK: $4200)
Tyler Kroft, Bengals (at Broncos) — Kroft has seen at least four targets in every game but one since taking over for the injured Tyler Eifert. In the one game he didn't reach four targets, he still tallied 79 yards while catching the only two balls thrown his way. This is a prime matchup, as the Broncos are much like the Giants and Browns when it comes to be dominated by tight ends. Denver ranks 25th in DVOA and 29th in aFPA to the position. (FD: $5300; DK: $2900)
Just missed: Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dion Lewis, Doug Martin, Jamison Crowder, Jeremy Maclin, Coby Fleener and Austin Hooper.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and weekly guest of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
