Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 10
By Jack Thomason–
(CBS) As a reminder, this piece can be utilized for daily fantasy football and/or season-long leagues. The idea is to create one-stop show for sleepers at each position, no matter what league you're playing. Best of luck to everyone in Week 10.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers (vs. Jets) — James Winston has been shut down for a few weeks, and that leaves Fitzpatrick as a cheap quarterback option in a good matchup. Fitzpatrick will get a Jets defense that ranks 31st in 4for4's schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. They also rank 21st in Football Outsiders' pass DVOA. Fitzpatrick will likely be without Mike Evans, but he's a savvy enough veteran has enough weapons to produce fantasy points at his current price. (FanDuel: $6100; DraftKings; $4900)
Eli Manning, Giants (at 49ers) — If ever there's a time to use Manning, this is the favorable matchup to do it. The 49ers rank 27th in pass DVOA and 23rd in aFPA to quarterbacks, making this a good spot for Manning regardless of his lackluster weapons. (FD: $6700; DK: $5100)
Running back
Orleans Darkwa, Giants (at 49ers) — Another Giant? That's a theme of this article. The 49ers allow the most points to opposing running backs, and Darkwa has been leading the way in the Giants' backfield. He's seen 59 percent of the touches over the last four weeks, including 60 percent this past Sunday, when he had 18 touches for 79 yards. That came in a game in which the Giants trailed the entire way. The Giants are one-point road favorites this week, and that should keep Darkwa involved the entire time. (FD: $5300; DK: $4500)
Matt Forte, Jets (at Buccaneers) — Forte is leading the way in the Jets' backfield, with 45 percent of the touches the last four weeks. The big benefit is that he's averaging six targets per game. The Jets are 2.5-point road favorites, which should give Forte an opportunity to grind out the clock, much like he did against the Bills last week. Even if New York were to get down, Forte is heavily involved in the passing game and still carries value. The Bucs are ranked 29th in pass DVOA to running backs, 22nd in rush DVOA and 23rd in aFPA to running backs. (FD: $5600; DK: $4400)
Receiver
Sterling Shepard, Giants (at 49ers) — Shepard is a much better value on FanDuel than DraftKings, as he's ranked as the 41st receiver as opposed to the 20th, respectively. The 49ers rank 24th, 24th and 26th in pass DVOA to No. 1, No. 2 and then other receiver spots, respectively, making this a solid matchup wherever Shepard lines up. He's coming off a nine-target, five-catch, 70-yard performance and will look to build on that this week. Tight end Evan Engram was the only player to out-target (10) Shepard last week, and the 49ers' best defense in the passing game is against tight ends. (FD: $5700; DK: $5500)
Martavis Bryant, Steelers (at Colts) — This is a speculation play given that Bryant was running with the first-team offense in practice Monday, but this matchup against Indianapolis is so juicy it's worth a shot as a what-the-heck flex or tournament play. The Colts are ranked 25th in aFPA to receivers, 22nd to No. 2 receivers in pass DVOA and 25th in overall pass DVOA. The Colts have also been beat deep religiously this season, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Steelers take a couple shots to Bryant to restore confidence, grease the squeaky wheels and to jump-start that part of their offense. (FD: $5100; DK: $3900)
Tight end
Vernon Davis, Redskins (vs. Vikings) — There are a lot of statistics surfacing to show Davis is a top-six fantasy tight end in games that Jordan Reed doesn't play in, and I'm not sure how that's still going overlooked. The Seahawks were No. 1 in pass DVOA to tight ends and Davis still went for six receptions and 72 yards and likely would've had a bigger game if not for a nagging injury he suffered early on. The Vikings rank 20th in pass DVOA to tight ends and 14th in aFPA to tight ends. As long as Reed is out, Davis is a play. (FD: $5300; DK: $4700)
Eric Ebron, Lions (vs. Browns) — The Browns are the worst team in football at covering tight ends, according to aFPA. The Lions' strength is their pass offense, relying on Matt Stafford's arm to keep them in the hunt. That's also the Browns' defensive weakness, so I think all of the Lions' pass catchers should have a good day. Ebron would be the one who qualifies as the sleeper or value play. He's been a part-time player in seeing roughly 50 percent of the snaps of late, but he has out-targted fellow tight end Darren Fells in two of the last three games. (FD: $5300; DK: $3100)
Just missed: Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, James White, Thomas Rawls, Robby Anderson, Demaryius Thomas, Hunter Henry and Tyler Kroft.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and weekly guest of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter@jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.
