The Difference
Approximately a quarter of the 2010 baseball season is left, and the Sox now sit four games behind division-leading Minnesota after beating them convincingly last night at Target Field.
The psychological swing for the team and its fans is palpable, with a losing streak broken and a deficit of less intimidating proportion to be overcome.
But it's more than that, as the difference between 4 games back and 6 is measurable, per history.
Our self-appointed show statistician/archivist (Scott in Davenport, IA) reports that the Sox chances of making the playoffs are not good. But last night's win gained them ten full percentage points of probability -- 17% vs. 7%.
Granted, these projections are not making use of the PECOTA projection algorithm, which affects the hard numbers positively for the Sox. Baseball Prospectus's monte carlo simulation gives them a whopping 1% boost, to 18%. Yay!
And if the bullpen continues to struggle (now JJ Putz is hurt?), it's hard to envision them tightening things up enough to compile the wins they need on the remaining schedule.
Steve Stone joins us at 2:00 today to preview the three-game series at KC.
Score legal expert Eldon Ham will help us with the details of the Roger Clemens federal prosecution (man, I love typing those four words together), and we should have a guest from Wrigley Field before Braves/Cubs.
We may replay yesterday's interview of Tommie Harris at some point in the show, for those who missed his wide-ranging, candid comments.
So come out the Blarney Stone in Oak Forest today for the Bud Light "Who Needs Two?" Tavern Tour, and get your weekend going with some cold beer and the chance to win tickets.
