The Bernstein Brief: PECOTA 2015 Has Arrived
By Dan Bernstein-
CBSChicago.com senior columnist
(CBS) For metrically inclined baseball fans, today is opening day.
Baseball Prospectus has released the 2015 results of the PECOTA projections, providing one system's glimpse into the immediate future, for better or worse.
The Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (conveniently based on the name of the representitavely average Bill Pecota) isn't an opinion, and it has no human biases or feelings. It doesn't love your team or hate it as it processes past performance and the statistical arcs of comparable players to project a range of likelihoods.
Your 2015 Cubs turned up in playoff contention, second in the NL Central at 82-80. The White Sox project to 78-84, but they appear competitive in an AL Central that has the Tigers first with just 82 wins and the Indians second at 81-81.
The city's major acquisitions compute tepidly, however, with Jon Lester slated for 2.2 WARP and Jeff Samardzija at a mere 0.8.
Even for a conservative, well-regarded forecast model such as this, there's plenty of margin for error. So adjust your optimism or pessimism accordingly.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's "Boers and Bernstein Show" in afternoon drive. Follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein and read more of his columns here.
