Spiegel: The Most Important Pitch Of The White Sox Season
By Matt Spiegel--
(CBS) It once was considered poor sportsmanship for a pitcher to try to fool a batter. Actually, the common parlance was "ungentlemanly."
That unwritten rule went by the wayside in the '60s. That would be the 1860s, when the slow ball started being thrown.
Since then, pitching has been not just about overpowering a hitter but about confusing them. Warren Spahn once said that, "Hitting is timing; pitching is upsetting timing."
In the post-Babe Ruth era, the change-of-pace pitch spread rapidly, as home runs became frighteningly possible. The best changeups in the game can make the best hitters look like a bunch of Gas-House Gorillas. Baseball Bugs Bunny knew the truth.
And here we are, pinning a large portion of hopes on one side of town on that pitch. The changeup is the most important weapon in the arsenal of the White Sox's starting rotation.
Last year, Chris Sale began to utilize it more than ever.
Sale throws a circle change (think Frank Viola, Johan Santana and Tom Glavine). He throws that at 86 mph or so, and he generates an incredibly high percentage of swings and misses with it -- far more than most other pitchers' changeups.
In 2013, Sale threw changeups less than 20 percent of the time in five of the seven baseball calendar months, according to Fangraphs.com. Over the course of the season, he threw changeups 19 percent of the time.
In 2014, Sale threw it more than 30 percent of the time in three of the seven months. For the season, his changeup usage percentage was 28.6 percent, per fangraphs.com.
This served multiple purposes. Sale's slider rate dropped dramatically, from an average of 30 percent to around 18 percent. That's the pitch that poses danger to his elbow and shoulder more than any other.
And the increased variety made Sale better than ever. His swinging strike percentage went from 10.8 to 12.9. Batters swung at more of his pitches both in and out of the strike zone, and yet his contact rates went down. That's dominance.
From the batter's box, Sale's mechanics must look like a toolbox thrown at you violently. Limbs and weapons fly toward the plate, and somewhere in there lurks the ball.
With that filthy slider at 81 mph, two kinds of heat at 96 or 98 and now that absurd changeup, you get three put-away pitches from Sale. That leads to few balls in play and lots of embarrassed batters shaking their head as they walk back to the dugout.
Sale's first start, on Sunday, showcased 72 strikes on 98 pitches, more than one-quarter of which were his circle change.
Sale's not the only White Sox hurler who has turned his focus to the changeup. This spring in Arizona, top prospect Carlos Rodon learned to mix in the changeup, on orders from pitching coach Don Cooper and those above him.
In college, Rodon didn't have to bother. He had two types of fastballs at 96 mph (a four-seamer and a sinker) along with a devastating slider. It was all he needed.
In the big leagues, as a starter, you better have three pitches. Dwight Gooden dominated with just fastball and curveball from 1984 to 1986. Lately, Justin Masterson and R.A. Dickey have had success with just two pitches, but Masterson's sinker and Dickey's knuckler are sometimes all they need to throw.
It's a short, short list of those starters who can find success with two pitches.
So Rodon has worked on his changeup, which averages about 83 mph.
"I didn't know it was that good until I started throwing it, then I built confidence with it," Rodon told Scott Merkin of MLB.com last month. "You have to throw the pitch. You throw it as much as you can, and you get the feel for it."
In a dominant spring training start against the Royals, Rodon struck out nine over four innings. I and many others came away seriously impressed. He threw 67 pitches that night, but just four were changeups, showing that his top two pitches are pretty darn good.
Last Saturday in his first start for Triple-A Charlotte, Rodon had nine strikeouts over five innings on 87 pitches, allowing just two hits. A
"My fastball command was real good," Rodon told the Charlotte Observer after the game. "My slider wasn't at its best, but the changeup was a lot better. I don't know, I threw 14 changeups and 17 sliders, but those 14 changeups were better than most of those sliders."
That's progress, and quickly.
Look around the league, and you see how many starters have successfully incorporated the changeup. The league average is around 10 percent, but here are some of the starting pitchers who were top 30 in changeup usage percentage in 2014: Felix Hernandez, Sale, Francisco Liriano, Henderson Alvarez, Cole Hamels, James Shields, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Scott Kazmir, Jered Weaver, Zach Greinke, Yordano Ventura and Johnny Cueto.
Rodon needs to feel fully comfortable throwing it to big league hitters, and that won't come until he shows the ability to spot it exactly where he wants. How many more starts like Saturday's does he need to get there? We'll have to see, but even if he doesn't dominate with the same type of results, if his changeup command stays high, he'll be out of Charlotte very soon.
And when Rodon gets here, the White Sox will have another terrifying name for opposing lineups to see in the probables.
Matt Spiegel is a host on the Spiegel and Goff Show on 670 The Score from 9 a.m.-1 p.m. on weekdays. Follow him on Twitter @MattSpiegel670.
