Shepkowski: Second Half Run Would Be Uncharacteristic
By Nick Shepkowski--
(WSCR) The all-star break finds the White Sox sitting five games behind division leading Detroit and another 4.5 behind second place Cleveland. With everything that has gone wrong in the first 92 games for the Southsiders its not difficult to think of a way they turn things around after the all-star break.
I mean, its illogical to think that Adam Dunn won't come out of his now 78 game slump, right?
And there is no way Alex Rios finishes the season with the lowest on-base percentage of American League everyday starters.
And to think Gordon Beckham and Brent Morel would start to contribute something offensively is a fair thought as well, correct?
Those are all arguments to be had in support of the White Sox finding their way in the second half. For the record I'm guessing Dunn finishes with higher than a .160 batting average and Rios finishes with a higher OBP than its current .262 showing. I'm not as sold on Beckham or Morel's offensive abilities.
However, one constant has remained since Ozzie Guillen took over as manager of the White Sox in 2004: They're a bad baseball team after the all-star break.
The White Sox have had some incredibly strong starts under Ozzie and have traditionally played great in June, where Ozzie has a career .580 win percentage. Respectably, only once before this year had an Ozzie-led team gone to the all-star break with an under .500 record. For the most part, the White Sox have been a very good first half team under Ozzie.
There in lies the problem with the 2011 version of the Southsiders.
In the seven previous seasons under Ozzie Guillen the White Sox have never had as high of winning percentage after the All-Star game as they did previous to the mid-summer classic.
| Year | Pre All-Star Break Record/Win Percentage | Post All-Star Break Record/Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 46-38 / .547 | 37-41 / .474 |
| 2005 | 57-29 / .662 | 42-34 / .552 |
| 2006 | 57-31 / .647 | 33-41 / .445 |
| 2007 | 39-47 / .453 | 33-43 / .434 |
| 2008 | 54-41 / .593 | 35-33 / .514 |
| 2009 | 45-43 / .511 | 34-40 / .459 |
| 2010 | 49-38 / .563 | 39-36 / .520 |
| 2011 | 44-48 / .478 | ???? |
The goal isn't to prove that games in August and September count differently in the standings than games in April and May do, because obviously they do not. It would, however, be a pleasant change for White Sox fans to see their team have an impressive second half for a change.
With the Tigers and Indians starting to slowly pull away and with the Twins charging and getting within 1.5 games of the Sox, it sure does seem like this baseball season is headed in the same direction as so many before it.
