Ostrowski: Week 7 Vegas Perspective
By Joe Ostrowski-
(CBS) Bookmakers can put away their Geno Smith voodoo dolls for now. He didn't screw up a winner for Vegas by throwing another late pick-six in a loss. The Jets didn't beat the Patriots, but they covered the point spread for the first time this season.
Last week, three interceptions returned for touchdowns late in games was great news for most bettors and bad news for the books. It locked in the Broncos, Cardinals and 49ers as winners against the spread.
Keep in mind that the wiseguy and public action may have already moved some point spreads.
Sharp (expert) money
(Last week: 1-1; season: 4-7-1)
Redskins (-5.5) over the Titans
Browns (-5.5) over the Jaguars
Bills (-6) over the Vikings
Public money
(Last week: 3-0-1; season: 7-6-1)
Seahawks (-7) over the Rams (82 percent)
Cardinals (-3.5) over the Raiders (81 percent)
Colts (-3) over the Bengals (80 percent)
Browns (-5.5) over the Jaguars (80 percent)
Line moves
Five games have already moved at least 1.5 points before getting to the weekend. Adjustments in games off the radar usually indicate some big sharp plays.
Fading the Jaguars has worked in five of their six games. Cleveland has gone from 4-point road favorites to six-point favorites against Jacksonville. It was the exact same line and movement for the Bills and Vikings. Buffalo went from -4 to -6.
My picks
(Last week: 1-2; season: 8-7)
Cincinnati (+3) at Indianapolis
What happened to the Bengals defense? Since coming off its bye and hearing chatter about being the best team in the NFL, Cincinnati has given up 80 points and 936 yards in two games. Mohamed Sanu will likely fill in for A.J. Green again, but he'll have to deal with Colts' Vontae Davis, who Pro Football Focus grades as the league's fourth-best cornerback. I don't need to bore you with statistics that explain how great Andrew Luck is.
Pick: Colts -3
New York Giants (+6.5) at Dallas
This line is an overreaction to the Week 6 results. It was the best of the Cowboys and worst of the Giants. For a New York win, they need to get Larry Donnell involved in the offense again; especially with Victor Cruz out for the year. Since his 3 TD night against Washington, Donnell has one catch in two games. Dallas' defense has given up 42 receptions and 6 touchdowns to tight ends.
Pick: Giants +6.5
Miami (+3.5) at Chicago
The Dolphins' run game is sixth-best in the NFL. The Bears' rushing defense ranks 10th but wasn't tested against Green Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta. The 6-foot-4 Brandon Marshall and 6-foot-3 Alshon Jeffery have huge height advantages over Dolphins cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan. Soldier Field sees a Bears victory for the first time in 2014.
Pick: Bears -3.5
Survivor picks
(Last week: 2-1; season: 9-3)
Congrats if you're alive after now that we're one-third of the way through the season. Not many had New Orleans below .500 with Dallas, San Diego and Arizona among the best.
1) Ravens over the Falcons
2) Seahawks over the Rams
3) Browns over the Jaguars
Joe Ostrowski is a host, producer and update anchor at 670 The Score. He hosts his show on Fridays starting at 10 p.m. Follow him on Twitter @JoeO670 and feel free to ask him questions.
