Ostrowski: Week 6 Vegas Perspective
By Joe Ostrowski-
(CBS) Vegas is just reeling us in to squash us, aren't they? Last week, we discussed all the "overs" that have been coming in. Week 5 was another money-maker for the public, as favorites went 10-4-1 against the spread.
Those trends didn't stop on Thursday night. The road-favored Colts covered against the Texans, and the over hit midway through the third quarter in Houston.
Sharp (expert) money
(Last week: 0-2; season: 3-6-1)
Broncos (-8.5) over the Jets
Vikings (-2) over the Lions
Public money
(Last week: 1-2; season: 4-6)
Broncos -8.5 over the Jets (90 percent)
Patriots -3 over the Bills (83 percent)
Packers -3 over the Dolphins (81 percent)
49ers -3 over the Rams (81 percent)
Line moves
As you can see, everyone is all in on Peyton Manning's offense. The Broncos-Jets line was on the move immediately after it opened on Sunday evening -- a 3.5-point adjustment for Denver at some shops. This could be a double-digit spread come Sunday.
Heavy money came in on Minnesota with Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush sitting out for Detroit at Friday's practice. The 2-point move made the Vikings the favorites.
My picks
(Last week: 1-2; season: 7-5)
Denver (-8.5) at NY Jets
This will be just the second road test of the year for the Broncos, but I really shouldn't have used the word "test." Denver's offense wasn't slowed down a bit on the road in 2013, averaging 36 points per game. Rex Ryan's defense has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns and a 108 quarterback rating. Hello, Peyton.
Pick: Broncos -8.5
Arizona (-3.5) vs Washington
The Cardinals should be down to the third quarterback on their depth chart, Logan Thomas. Carson Palmer flew to Denver for treatment, and Drew Stanton was limited all week after suffering a concussion last Sunday. Against the Broncos, Thomas had 10 dropbacks with seven incompletions, two sacks and a touchdown. This game is still off the board at some books, waiting on the Palmer news.
Pick: Redskins +3.5
Bears (+3) at Atlanta
Another Bears games with a pair of disappointing teams. Marc Trestman has told the world that they plan on getting the ball in Brandon Marshall's hands more. It probably doesn't matter, because the Falcons defense is giving up 30 points and 407 yards a week. I just can't get past Matt Ryan's 99 quarterback rating and 38-10 record at home. Plus, Atlanta is 20-5 against the spread after losses of six points or more.
Pick: Falcons -3
Survivor picks
(Last week: 2-0; season: 7-2)
I've said many times to "stick with your studs" when discussing fantasy football. It's the same line of thinking with survivor pools this week, even if they're on the road. We can't pick on 0-5 Jacksonville since they're playing 1-4 Tennessee.
1) Broncos over the Jets
2) Seahawks over the Cowboys
3) Chargers over the Raiders
Joe Ostrowski is a host, producer and update anchor at 670 The Score. He hosts his show on Fridays starting at 10 p.m. Follow him on Twitter @JoeO670 and feel free to ask him questions.
