Joniak's Journal: Patriots Are Dominant In October
By Jeff Joniak-
(CBS) The Bears (3-4) hit the road to face the Patriots (5-2) on Sunday. Here's what's on my mind heading into the contest.
First impression
"This is when football season starts to really feel like football season, and the mental and physical toughness really start taking a toll," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said this week. "This is where you see what your team is all about."
My first impression of Brady's quote resonates with me because it carries significant weight coming from the Patriots icon. If you haven't heard, the Patriots are on an 18-game home winning streak in October, dating to 2005, and are an NFL-best 40-9 overall in October since 2003. The New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers are in the conversation for being the best October team as well, with at least a .659 winning percentage during that month since 2003. Coincidentally or not, every one of those teams won a Super Bowl since 2003.
Second thought
One of the best Sunday storylines will be how the Patriots defend Bears running back Matt Forte. Even Forte admits to the expectation that Bill Belichick will devise a plan to reduce his impact in the passing game.
Forte leads the NFL in receptions with 52 and remains the league leader in yards after the catch. Every defense wants to make an offense one-dimensional, and for the Patriots it might begin with trying to make Forte one-dimensional. I fully expect Forte to get his carries Sunday. New England will be without linebacker Jerod Mayo and defensive end Chandler Jones. The Patriots are 28th in the league giving up four yards or more on first down, and they allow 4.76 yards per carry on first down, which ranks 27th.
Third degree
New England is one of five teams in the NFL that hasn't allowed a late touchdown in either half. Their nine late-half points allowed are second-best in the NFL. The Bears have permitted two touchdowns at the end of the first half but nothing in the second half.
It's a momentum stat to consider, especially on the road. The Patriots have scored four touchdowns at the end of the first half, while the Bears have scored 10 points. Rolling that momentum into the second half has been good for the Bears, who are tied for second in the NFL with 24 points on their first possession after halftime. The Patriots have scored 10 points on those initial second-half possessions.
Fourth-and-short
Long fields haven't led to points for the Bears; 22 of their 77 possessions have opened inside their own 20, but they have only scored three times for 14 points and a touchdown percentage of just 4.5 percent on those drives. New England's long field production ranks among the best in the NFL. In 17 drives starting inside their own 20, the Patriots have scored seven times. Their 45 points on those drives ties for the league best, and their touchdown percentage of 35.3 percent leads the NFL, according to Stats Inc.
Jeff Joniak is the play-by-play announcer for the Bears broadcasts on WBBM Newsradio 780. Follow him on Twitter @JeffJoniak.
