Durkin: What To Watch For During Super Bowl 50
By Dan Durkin--
(CBS) And then there were two.
Every year, 32 teams share the collective goal of Super Bowl glory, yet only two get the chance to be world champions.
Super Bowl 50 presents a compelling matchup between the Carolina Panthers (17-1) and Denver Broncos (14-4).
If you're unable to watch the big game on CBS, we'll carry the radio broadcast on the WSCR 670 The Score airwaves Sunday. Kickoff is at 5:30 p.m., while our coverage starts at 3 p.m.
Here are some aspects to focus on during the big game.
What to watch for when the Panthers have the ball
If you can't block them, read them
Two weeks ago, Broncos outside linebackers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware made life miserable for the Patriots offensive line and quarterback Tom Brady. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' goal was simple: get pressure with as few rushers as possible (three or four) so that he could use combination coverages to smother Brady's top targets and scramble his progression as he scanned the field for targets. His plan worked like a charm. In the end, the Broncos hit Brady 20 times, the highest total in any game in the 2015 season.
The Patriots had no threat of a running game and a stationary target who rarely leaves his launch point in the pocket. Knowing they didn't have to fit gaps in run defense, Miller and Ware jumped snap counts and rushed relentlessly up the field to bend the edge and get into Brady's face.
Unfortunately for Phillips, deploying that same game plan against Cam Newton and the Panthers simply won't be possible.
Playing lighter fronts and leaving the A-gaps (gaps between the center and guard) open against Newton and the Panthers' diverse running game would get a defense gashed. Playing "2-man" coverage (man coverage underneath, Cover-2 zone over the top) against Newton will leave underneath defenders with their back to the ball and allow Newton to steal easy yardage.
Dealing with Miller and Ware is the biggest focus for the Panthers as they prepare their game plan. There's an old adage that says, "If you can't block them, read them." That means you can neutralize some of the get-off speed of Miller and Ware and up-field pursuit by leaving them unblocked and reading them as the Panthers are wont to do with their zone-read packages
Nothing will slow a set of edge rushers down quicker than a quarterback who's a threat to run. They can no longer pin their ears back and rush straight up the field. If they do so, they will create running lanes for Newton and Co. and flip the math to favor the offense. Playing Newton 11-on-11 is difficult enough, let alone with 10 or fewer.
The question Phillips is contemplating with his assistants is who are we more concerned about running the ball: Newton or a running back?
If it's the former, Phillips will have the ends attack Newton at the mesh point and force the dive. The rub there is you now have a numbers advantage for the offense on the dive, as they have an extra blocker at the point of attack.
If it's the latter, Phillips will crash the ends down on the running back and use his linebackers a safety to scrape over the top and gap exchange with the defensive end. The rub here is Newton is bigger and quicker than the linebackers and safeties on the field, so a missed tackle in the open field can lead to an explosive gain.
Of all the matchups, this will be the most intriguing to follow.
Max protection
Scoring 500 points isn't an easy feat to accomplish in 16 games, yet that's exactly what the Panthers did. Those numbers were slightly inflated thanks to an opportunistic defense that generated a league-high 39 turnovers in the regular season, returning four for touchdowns. They've carried that style of play into the playoffs, generating nine turnovers and two pick-sixes.
Giving the ball back to their offense more frequently with good field position has been crucial to the Panthers' dominance. What's most impressive is they've reached such great heights despite not having a strong offensive line.
Jordan Gross' retirement in 2014 left the team in a lurch last season. They slogged through the season with Byron Bell, who was promptly released after the 2014 season concluded. They turned to Michael Oher of "The Blind Side" fame, and he's on his third team in as many seasons. Oher has played admirably this season, but he's still vulnerable to speed around the edge.
Opposite Oher is Mike Remmers, who entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2012 and has played for seven different teams. He didn't make his first start until last season with the Panthers.
These two will be tasked with defending the edges against Miller and Ware, who bend them better than combination in the league. However, they'll get plenty of help by design. The Panthers are fond of using six- and seven-man protection schemes.
Unselfish role players like running back Mike Tolbert and tight end Ed Dickson are vital, physical, responsible pass blockers asked to fortify the perimeter of the pocket. The Panthers use all seven in various slide and turn protections to give Newton time in the pocket to stretch a team vertically.
Through two playoff games, their plan is working. Newton has been sacked only two times and knocked down once.
The downside to using max protection is that there are only three receivers out in routes. But the threat of the run creates single-coverage opportunities, and Newton's ability to make deep throws late in the down has brought an explosive pass element to the Panthers' offense. The Broncos have three excellent cover cornerbacks in Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby, whom they trust to hold up throughout a pass route.
What to watch for when the Broncos have the ball
Prepare to get mugged
Panthers coach Ron Rivera played linebacker on the mid-1980s Bears. Those legendary defenses were coordinated by Buddy Ryan and his attack-first mentality. The Bears' signature "46" front had defensive linemen covering the center and both guards head up.
As a coach, Rivera -- and Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott -- learned from Jim Johnson in Philadelphia. Johnson's trademark was the "mug" or double-A gap pressure package.
Both schemes were designed to scramble protection schemes and stress offensive lines to get to the quarterback. The Panthers frequently use their mug look and have built a variety of alternate pressure packages from it.
By "sugaring" the A-gaps with linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, the Panthers will force the Broncos to account for as many as six rushers, which will require a tight end or running back to protect first before releasing into a route, known as a check-release.
This will be problematic for the Broncos for a number of reasons. The biggest issue is their offensive line isn't particularly big in the middle, and Peyton Manning doesn't have the ability to move laterally, so pressure up the middle is the hardest for him to deal with.
The Broncos use a zone-based running scheme, which favors speed and leverage over size. The Panthers' best pass rusher is defensive tackle Kawann Short, who will be a handful for center Matt Paradis and guards Louis Vasquez and Evan Mathis.
Pay attention to which way Paradis turns and who the running back is assigned in the protection count.
If the Broncos provide help in the middle with their guards or slide their protection, that will put the running back on the defensive ends, which is an advantage to the Panthers. If the Broncos man block the mug looks, the running back will have to deal with a linebacker up the middle.
The Panthers will run fire-zone, five-man pressures off of this look as well to get a free runner and take away a hot receiver. Look for the Panthers to use this look early to get indicators on how the Broncos plan to deal with it, and they'll also try to get into Manning's face to speed up his decision-making and potentially force an errant throw.
Attacking from the slot
The Panthers' defense thrives on mistakes by their opponent, particularly in the passing game. Their 24 interceptions were the most in the regular season, and they've added six more during the playoffs.
Manning isn't anywhere near the quarterback he was a few seasons ago. He resembles a photo copy of a photo copy on the field. You can make out certain parts of what the original was, but the rest is blurred and distorted. He's struggled to work the ball down the field and has become a game manager, which isn't an insult given the dominance of Denver's defense.
When you examine the Panthers defense, they have star players at every level. However, their weakness is their secondary, particularly their slot cornerback. Injuries to Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere have left them paper thin at the position. They've turned to castoffs Cortland Finnegan and Robert McClain to fill this role, both of whom can be exploited.
Pay attention to which receiver the Broncos deploy from the slot. While he's been a massive disappointment throughout the playoffs, Demariyus Thomas is still a game-changing talent who's faster and bigger than the Panthers' slot corners. Emmanuel Sanders is a shifty route runner who loses no speed going into and coming out of his breaks, and he could dominate on option routes.
The Broncos offense is the worst unit in this game, but they should be able to attack the Panthers from the slot.
Final thoughts
The Broncos defense is the best unit playing in this game. Will they be able to get safe pressure on Newton? That's the big question. The Panthers offense will be able to move the football, and they're deadly in the red zone given Newton's talents and offensive coordinator Mike Shula's willingness to feature him as the primary runner.
This game will be decided by what happens when the Broncos have the football. If they're able to move the ball on the ground and bleed the clock and keep the game close into the fourth quarter, they'll have a puncher's chance. If Manning turns the ball over, this game will get out of hand.
The pick: Panthers 27, Broncos 20
Dan Durkin covers the Bears for CBSChicago.com and is a frequent contributor to 670 The Score. Follow him on Twitter @djdurkin.
