Cubs vs. Mets: Some Reason For Hope, Not Fear
CHICAGO (CBS) -- When a team falls into a best-of-seven series hole, like the Cubs have in the NLCS against the Mets, pending doom casts a dark, fearsome pall.
Or does it?
The visceral response is to look at the past and the numbers, which show that only about 20 percent of teams have come back to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first two games.
Looking at it that way, fans couldn't be blamed for feeling a sense of despair. Yet, there is reason for hope.
Consider Cubs manager Joe Maddon, who likes to say he's fond of the one-game winning streak. Mentally, that's a much better place, especially considering that more often than not, teams down 0-2 rally to win Game 3.
The Cubs' offense has gone quiet, but neither loss showed any sort of fundamental breakdown.
Looking at Game 2, a single pitch and a single catch changed the game.
The pitch was Cubs ace Jake Arrieta's breaking ball to Daniel Murphy, the Mets second baseman whose two-run home run was simply a stellar piece of hitting.
Fox Spprts' Dave Cameron did a fascinating analysis, looking at more then 14,000 similar pitches. I would suggest reading it, but suffice it to say that putting that pitch in play is a rare feat. The chances of hitting it out of the park are nearly infinitesimal.
While less fluky, Curtis Granderson's fine piece of fielding, robbing a home run for Chris Coughlan, is the type of singular play that defines winning and losing in Major League Baseball.
And while Maddon also tells his players to focus on the process, not the outcome, let's look at a couple of historically favorable outcomes for the Cubs.
The Mets weren't the greatest road team during the regular season, barely above .500. And the club hasn't won a game at Wrigley Field in more than two years. Although, it's not like they play as many there as division rivals.
Milder weather at the start of Tuesday's Game 3, with a bit of a breeze to favor the Cubs' powerhouse left-handed batters, like Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber, can't hurt.
Perhaps the most important reason for optimism?
The team's mental approach.
That brings us to Maddon's comments after the wild-card gamevictory in Pittsburgh.
"I really believe the process is fearless," he said. "If you're really focusing on outcome and just winning, then you can become fearful."
