CBS 2 School: Miss Independent
When Kelly Clarkson hit pay dirt with "Miss Independent," her smash hit back in 2005, she apparently was not just talking about herself. Mr., Mrs. and Miss independent will hit the big time again tomorrow when they determine the outcome in countless midterm elections.
Partisan identification remains as one of the leading indicators of our vote. Yet more and more voters do not see themselves aligned to one political party over another. The rise of these independent voters has changed both campaigns and elections.
Voters swinging from one party to another has put all incumbents on watch. Loyalty to a party label has been replaced by the expectation for results. Whoever is in power now knows that relying on their party base is no longer enough to hold on to political power. Elected officials realize that targeting independent voters is essential to winning.
No political tent appears big enough if all you have is a party label.
Independent voters appear poised to hurt the Democratic Party this Tuesday.
According to the Pew Research Center the Democratic Party has held the edge over the Republican Party in party identification every year since 1939 except twice. The first time since 1939 that Republican identification was larger than Democrat identification was in 1995. In that year Republicans took majority control of the Congress for the first time in fifty years.
2009 marks the second time since 1939 that more Americans saw themselves as Republicans than Democrats. This does not bode well for Democrats on Tuesday.
But bigger than this is the number of Americans who claim neither party.
Looking at ideological trends make it look even worse.
In the most recent Gallup Poll, 55% of Americans lean Republican while 40% lean Democrat. When Republicans retook the Congress back in 1995 the same Gallup Poll had 49% leaning Republican and 44% leaning Democrat.
When measuring conservatives versus liberals Gallup reveals where the independent voters have moved. 48% of surveyed Americans consider themselves conservative. 32% see themselves as moderate. Only 20% call themselves liberal.
Television ads labeling Obama and the Democrats as liberals could be the game changer. Independent voters rooted out Republicans in 2006 and 2008. They are prepared to root out Democrats in 2010.
To the independent voters on Tuesday Republicans will be singing Clarkson's "Since U Been Gone." It looks like the Democrats will be singing "Walk Away."
