Bernstein: NFL's Inflating Passing Offense
By Dan Bernstein--
(CBS) NFL passing numbers are through the roof, at a time when it has seemingly never been more difficult to identify and develop competent professional quarterbacks. Figure that one out.
Even as teams increasingly struggle with the proliferation of college spread systems, teaching remedial courses in reading and recognizing defenses to rookies and youngsters forced into action by injury and attrition, offenses just set all-time records through the air.
NFL teams set new per-game passing records for attempts (35.7), completions (22.5), yards (243.8) and touchdowns (1.64) in 2015, according to an analysis by The New York Times. A record 12 quarterbacks threw for 4,000 yards, and a record 11 had at least 30 touchdowns. What's more, interceptions were at record lows, too — only 2.4 percent of passes were picked off — while the league's completion rate was at an all-time high of 63 percent. For the sixth consecutive year, NFL quarterbacks set a new high-water mark for passer efficiency rating: an astounding 88.4.
All this happened with some big names either out of the mix or on the decline. Peyton Manning is old and hurt, Tony Romo is missing and Aaron Rodgers lacks both blockers and receivers. More teams than ever struggle to protect passers, as new practice-contact restrictions make it harder for offensive lines to learn and maintain cohesion over the course of the year. Among the quarterbacks contributing to these record levels of production were Week 17 starters Kellen Moore, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, Austin Davis, Case Keenum, Ryan Mallett, Zach Mettenberger and Tyrod Taylor.
So what's going on here?
To hear 670 The Score senior NFL analyst Hub Arkush tell it, the NFL has engineered this. He said Tuesday that the league is making sure this keeps happening.
"It leads me to one conclusion," Arkush told the Boers and Bernstein Show. "The more the league chooses to manufacture those numbers by refusing to give defensive backs a fair shake, the more likely we are to see this kind of performance. I'm not trying to take anything away from the quarterbacks — there are some guys who really came on this year — but the bottom line is that defenses and secondaries in particular are playing with a handicap."
Years ago, old-school coaches, eschewing the risks of downfield passing, offered up the old adage that said, "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." The line, credited to Darrell Royal and later echoed by Woody Hayes, refers to completion, incompletion and interception as potential outcomes. But that math has now changed, drastically.
"It's at least four things," Arkush said. "Two of them are good, and the fourth may be the best in that you get free production from bad pass interference calls. I used to think offensive holding was the one mis-called the most, but I think officials have gotten better at that. They have also gotten better at making sure the receiver has every advantage in the passing game. The league would deny it, they'd say the officials are told to call it right, but I find that hard to believe, the more games you watch."
However it has worked out, either by passive evolution of the game's aesthetic standards or the active machinations Arkush is alleging — a business fine-tuning it's product to meet the perceived demands of the market — the general proliferation of the passing game has continued despite increasing headwinds in quarterback development.
In the next five years, we'll see the aging out of a generation of stalwarts at the position: Manning, Romo, Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning just to name the first to mind. That's not even to mention the resurgent Carson Palmer or other long-timers 30 or older in the tier below like Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith and Matt Ryan.
Will these current trends hold over time? How far will the NFL continue to go to keep these levels of inflation constant? Those are the questions.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's "Boers and Bernstein Show" in afternoon drive. You can follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein and read more of his columns here.
