Bernstein: Is A White Sox Trade Worth Doing, Now?
By Dan Bernstein--
CBSChicago.com senior columnist
(CBS) Bolstering a contender sounds a whole lot better than trying to slow a tailspin into oblivion. It's one thing to have the luxury of shoring up something already solid and quite another to begin a salvage operation.
Such is baseball context, however, and the whipsawing 2016 White Sox are weighing the possibilities of the early trade market against this shifting backdrop, trying to assess a growing number of apparent needs as they figure out where and what they are.
Recent speculation has centered on the Padres, with 670 The Score's Bruce Levine reporting negotiation regarding a deal for right-hander James Shields, the 34-year-old veteran starter who's still owed nearly $58 million through 2018, with a club option for 2019. Shields' current advanced peripheral numbers are in line with his respectable career averages (3.90 FIP for 2016, 3.83 career), and he's a proven workhorse with nine straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched. He'd likely cost something less than a top-level prospect, and the White Sox have some payroll flexibility.
But to what end?
Now losers of 15 of their last 19 games and seven straight, the White Sox sit in third place in the same AL Central division that they led by six games as recently as May 9. They're 23rd of 30 MLB teams in position-player WAR, 21st in wOBA, 24th in defensive runs saved and 20th in base-running runs. Their pitching numbers are top-heavy due to the dominance of Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, but even that two-man firewall against a losing streak now has been breached twice in a row.
There now are holes appearing everywhere, and leverage dwindles with the obviousness of desperation.
Jimmy Rollins is done. The former MVP is barely replacement level now and can't be an everyday shortstop on a good team. His .226/.282/.336 line has to go in favor of something more, and if that's the .269/.282/.388 provided by Tyler Saladino, you can see the negligible difference.
Brett Lawrie is back to playing like Brett Lawrie, Adam Eaton's hot start has cooled, a fourth outfielder is starting in center, there's two backup catchers and only one reliable source of power. Meanwhile, Jose Abreu's WAR is an alarming -0.5, and his isolated power (Slugging percentage - batting average) is a ghastly .144, a remarkable deviation from his career .223.
So if you are general manager Rick Hahn, where do you start?
You can launch manager Robin Ventura if you want, but sliding bench coach Rick Renteria over one seat is unlikely to change some of these statistical vectors. Ventura's body of work is unimpressive enough to merit dismissal, certainly, and his in-game decisions can be maddening. Case in point: Sunday's idea of having Melky Cabrera sacrifice bunt with two on and no outs in the seventh, a move that lowered their win expectancy by 0.8 percent. It's not too much to ask of a manager that he makes the team more likely to win and not less.
It's probably true that this team is better than it has shown in the last three weeks and not as good as it looked for the first six. The White Sox can still figure out how to contend in a division that lacks a clear alpha dog. But the schedule is daunting, with June's slate of games against the Mets, Tigers, Nationals, Royals, Indians, Red Sox and Blue Jays, with no clearly weaker opponent until the Twins reach town on June 28.
That's four weeks for Ventura and the current roster to prove to management that they deserve fortification befitting a genuinely competitive team.
Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score's "Boers and Bernstein Show" in afternoon drive. You can follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein and read more of his columns here.
