Bernstein: Breaking It Down
By Dan Bernstein--
We have spent the better part of the week, now, talking about ourselves as much as we have the Bears and the Packers.
Football metacriticism has its time and place, but let's strip away the analysis of fandom and feelings for the moment and examine what's going to matter.
It always seems as if pregame "keys to victory" and "players to watch" are quickly forgotten after a Sunday of unpredictable collisions, bounces, and decisions that determine those truths, yet I'm employing such a framework to get into what I see as important details.
Here are five Bears who matter most, and why.
Julius Peppers: The expensive athletic freak has been worth every penny of his contract to this point, and is the best player on a good defense. Blocking schemes are tuned to him as the primary force to be stopped, and his arsenal of rushes – edge speed, in-line leverage, bull-rush, end/tackle twist – are the subject of tense film-room whispers in Green Bay.
It seems as if Aaron Rodgers leads the league in near-miss sacks (those plays where a defender breaks through with a clean shot at him, only to be left grasping at air), and Peppers must make the most out of the handful of opportunities he will have for high-impact plays. Rodgers may be the league's most accurate passer, but nothing nullifies that skill like having a giant man throw him on the ground and fall on him.
Matt Forte: Something as simple as a couple more yards after first contact can alter playcalling drastically. Offensive coordinators love second-and-short chances, especially early, as play-action can be used to slow the rush and buy enough time to find some downfield shots. The Packers' defense has vulnerabilities to the wheel route and others that similarly attack the exposed flat, and it is there that Forte can exploit a matchup.
Brian Urlacher: Running straight back in the middle seam is his primary job in pass coverage, and Rodgers will read his hip-turn as his main key on the post route. He will attack the run through his gap, and here is a concern of mine – the Packers have gashed the Bears in the past using what's called "lead weak to the bubble," where the tailback follows the fullback to the open side of the formation opposite the tight end, and there is usually a double-team of the tackle on that side. Urlacher has been susceptible to isolation blocks before.
Jay Cutler: If he was being evaluated as a potential political candidate, consultants would describe him has having high ratings of both approval and disapproval, and could sum up his game in their vernacular – "high positives, high negatives." He is under contract through 2013, and would be well-served by the kind of performance Sunday that both cements his place in Bears history and quiets the ongoing storm over his personality, work ethic and inconsistency. He has the most to gain of any single Bear.
He tends to look for Greg Olsen when pressured, but it's unlikely his buddy will be open against a defense that has taken him out by treating him like a wide receiver and covering him with a physical corner. Earl Bennett is a more probable hot-read, as is Forte. Cutler's poise, awareness, and feel for the pass-rush will be a determining factor in the outcome.
Devin Hester: What's left to say? He's the best return man the NFL has ever seen, and he's in the prime of his career. The Packers may try to pen him in with directional punting, at their own peril.
The ball descends from the peak of its arc…we instinctively assess the likelihood of a return based on the space between he and his pursuers…realize he's taking this one, and lean closer to the TV. The first guy misses…there's a slight reversal into a hole you didn't think was there, that unmistakable, anticipatory thrum at Soldier Field starts to swell, he accelerates in a step and there's a buzzing in your head. His blockers sense something, too. That's open field…go, kid…
Sunday. 2:00.
Dan Bernstein has been the co-host of "Boers and Bernstein" since 1999. He joined the station as a reporter/anchor in 1995. The Boers and Bernstein Show airs every weekday from 1PM to 6PM on The Score, 670AM.
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