Bears vs. Lions Preview and Prediction
Trying to figure out what the Bears will be in 2010 has been a chore. It was 3 seasons ago since Lovie Smith said, "Trust me". In those 3 seasons, the Bears haven't made the playoffs and compared to the other teams in the NFC North, look like they're going backwards. This summer, the Bears again have asked fans to trust them. Trust that the additions they made on defense will provide pressure. Trust that Mike Martz knows what he's doing and can teach it to Cutler & Crew quickly. Trust that some of the issues we saw in preseason aren't a precursor to what we'll see once the games count. Sunday provides the first test of Bears fans trust and Lovie Smith's preparation...here's how I see it going:
Lions O vs Bears D
Matthew Stafford is a player to keep a watch on over the next couple of years. He seems poised to take the next step. He needs help to do that and the Lions front office went out and got him some help in the offseason. Detroit added TE Tony Scheffler, WR Nate Burleson and drafted RB Jahvid Best. Scheffler could cause trouble for the Bears when they are in Cover-2 because he's capable of running the seam. Burleson is very adept of running after the catch and can't totally be confined to single coverage. People in Detroit feel that they got a steal in Best. In college, he had vision and burst. Watch for him to make plays catching the ball out of the backfield too.
Hmmm...a whole paragraph in and haven't mentioned Calvin Johnson.
Johnson is a matchup nightmare for the Bears. Last year when Zach Bowman had to check "Megatron", Bowman got torched. The Bears coaching staff adjusted, playing more Cover-2 and shifted Charles Tillman to his side. Tillman seems to play better against big WR. In the offseason, the Bears decided that Bowman and Tillman would switch permanently with Bowman playing LCB and Tillman at RCB. That means that the team has more faith in Bowman being the featured corner. I'm still skeptical about that, especially against Johnson, but I digress.
The issue with the Lions is still their offensive line. It's pourice. Even with all the weapons, if Stafford doesn't have time it'll be hard for him to be effective. The Bears paid Julius Peppers a lot of dough to get after the quarterback. Through the preseason I found him to be most impressive individual on the field. He didn't quit on plays and against Oakland and Arizona teams eventually started to either chip or double team him. His presence needs to be felt immediately. Beyond Peppers, I expect you will see the Bears blitz a bit more to see if the rookie Best is ready for blitz pick up and if Stafford can perform under pressure. I must admit, it will be nice to see Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs playing together again. Here's hoping they both can stay healthy.
Bears O vs Lions D
It's been annoying to hear what the Bears are going to do without being able to actually see it. The idea that magically everything is going to click leaves me skeptical. The Bears offense is supposed to be about timing and trust and I haven't seen enough of either to tell you this thing is going to work over an entire season.
The Lions secondary is in shambles. In fact they're back-7 (LB & DB) are bad. They could make up for it with strong defensive line play. The Lions added Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Miller and drafted Ndamukong Suh. I like this group. Vanden Bosch and Miller have something to prove and Suh looks every bit the part of a menace at the DT spot. He will be a challenge for the middle of the Bears offensive line. Olin Kreutz who ordinarily ignores rookies gave the slightest of nods to Suh. That says to me that he's been impressed with what he's seen on tape.
Jay Cutler has had great success against the Lions. In 3 games his stats are phenomenal: 43-68, 437 yards, 6TD and 0INT. That's a passer efficiency rating of 111.0. The Bears offensive line will have to hold off Suh and the boys to make plays down the field, but I'll give Martz the benefit of the doubt that he can gameplan against a young and banged up secondary. That all goes out the window if Chris Williams can't protect, but expect Brandon Malumaneula to be lined up on his side for most of the day. Johnny Knox has to get proper depth on his routes, but if he does he could have a HUGE day.
Special Teams
The Bears have looked awful in the summer, but if there's one thing I have confidence in it's Dave Toub's ability to get the team ready on Sundays. The 3-player combo of: Patrick Mannelly, Brad Maynard and Robbie Gould are one of the best in the NFL. With the roster figured out this unit should play better. Lions kicker, Jason Hanson has been hurt in the preseason. His knee injury kept him from kicking off or FG tries in the preseason.
Final Thought
The Lions are a sexy upset pick this weekend. I think they're closing in on becoming a bigger threat in the NFC North, but they aren't quite there yet. The last couple of games between these 2 teams have featured a lot of offense. I don't think that's going to change. Both teams have offensive line problems and both teams have secondary concerns. I'm not convinced the Bears are any good yet, but I do think this is a good matchup for the Midway 11. The Lions will make a game of it, but the Bears will be 1-0. Bears 31 Lions 20.
*Catch me after Doug and OB on Sunday. I'll have a complete wrap up, locker room report and take your calls.
