Durkin: 2011 NFC North Preview
By Dan Durkin-
(CBS) Are you ready for some football? I know I sure am.
Prior to last season, nary an NFL pundit had two teams from the NFC North playing against each other for the right to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLV, but that's exactly how it worked out, making the NFC North as relevant as any division in football. The NFC North boasts the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers, our beloved Chicago Bears, the paper champion Detroit Lions, and a Favre-less Minnesota Vikings, so 2011 will be full of intrigue.
Here is my take on how the NFC North will shake out with predictions and a look at each team's general outlook, strengths, and weaknesses.
1. Green Bay Packers
Predicted Regular Season Record: 12-4
2010 Record: 10-6 (4-2 NFC North, Super Bowl Champions)
In 2010, the Green Bay Packers put to rest a few NFL myths like the need for a "load" back, or being bitten by the injury bug. As the injury bug bit Green Bay's "load" back Ryan Grant in the first quarter of the first game of the season, yet the Packers still brought the Lombardi trophy back to Green Bay. The injury bug must have really liked the taste of Packer meat, as it went on to bite other notable contributors like Jermichael Finley, Nick Barnett, Mark Tauscher, Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar, Mike Neal, not to mention eight other players. Want to hear something really scary? The Packers will be better in 2011.
On July 11, 2008, Ted Thompson became public enemy number one in Green Bay when he showed Packer legend Brett Favre the door and handed the keys to the car to unproven Aaron Rodgers. A petition for Thompson to be fired was created on this day (search it if you'd like to sign it, as they're about 8,500 people short of their goal of 10,000 petitioners), and every move he made from that point on faced extreme scrutiny.
Fast forward three years and you can't find a general manager who has built a team in a better manner than Thompson and much of that is attributed to his ability to make tough decisions. From letting Favre go, to hiring Mike McCarthy as head coach – fresh off a 2005 season with San Francisco where he coordinated the NFL's 32nd ranked offense - Thompson has displayed guts on the job. He has built a talented young roster through the draft and unlike his counterpart in Chicago, Thompson doesn't have to claim to people he has a draft driven philosophy, he proves it.
Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. For me, his ascension began in the 2009 playoffs against the Arizona Cardinals when he single-handedly forced overtime, leading the Packers to 35 second half points and four passing touchdowns. The surgeon-like precision Rodgers displayed while throwing on the run made it very clear to me that Green Bay was starting to build something very special. Armed with speedy Greg Jennings, reliable Jordy Nelson, match-up nightmare Jermichael Finley, and wily veteran Donald Driver, it will be bombs away again for Rodgers and company. The Packers pass to set up the run, so any contributions they get from Grant, James Starks, or John Kuhn are gravy. This is a well-oiled machine on offense and the Packers will have no issues scoring in bunches in 2011.
Defensively the Packers have game changers on their front seven in Clay Matthews and BJ Raji, who allow defensive coordinator Dom Capers to throw a variety of fronts and blitzes to keep offensive blocking schemes guessing with their protections. In the secondary, Charles Woodson was nothing short of brilliant last year, and Nick Collins' performance in the Super Bowl was impeccable. The chink in the armor on defense will be finding a suitable replacement for Cullen Jenkins. Mike Neal has been tabbed fill this role, who showed flashes as a rookie but saw his season cut short with a shoulder injury.
So what can derail the Packers in 2011? Shoddy offensive line play and complacency. The Packers have dedicated back to back first round draft picks to offensive lineman, indicating that they are aware of the need to keep Rodgers' jersey clean in order to win. The Packers will also have to deal with the big bulls-eye on their back each week. Every team they face will throw their best punch at the defending champ. Judging by how they ran the table to get into the playoffs last year and then beat the three best teams in the NFC on the road, the Packers are up for the challenge. My money is on a 12-4 season and a repeat as Super Bowl Champions.
2. Chicago Bears
Predicted Regular Season Record: 9-7
2010 Record: 11-5 (5-1 NFC North, NFC North Champions)
Please click this link - here - to view the Chicago Bears Season Preview I submitted to the 2011 Pepsi Max Score Search.
3. Detroit Lions
Predicted Regular Season Record: 7-9
2010 Record: 6-10 (2-4 NFC North)
In this life nothing is certain but death, taxes, and predicting a breakout season for the Detroit Lions. Picking the Lions to end their losing ways has become as trendy as boat shoes on a hipster, yet every year it's the same story. Once the regular season wraps up the Lions get their popcorn ready, put new batteries in the tv remote, and watch the playoffs on the couch like the rest of us. NFL soothsayers will lead you to believe that 2011 is the year of the Lions, but to echo Public Enemy, I say, don't believe the hype.
To be fair, the Lions are making moves to improve, but for a team that's won eight games in three seasons that's damning with faint praise.
There will be so many eyes on every hit quarterback Matthew Stafford takes this year that state legislators should consider renaming the state Miichiigan. In a division featuring some of the NFL's finest pass rushers, are tackles Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus up for the challenge? They'd better be, as offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is going to air it out this year given the lack of a reliable running game. Linehan has weapons to work with in the passing game none bigger than wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who is unequivocally the most difficult individual match-up for NFL secondaries. So if the Lions can keep Stafford upright, 2011 could be the beginning of one of the best quarterback-wide receiver combinations in the NFL for years to come.
Their defensive line - dubbed the "Silver Crush" by head coach Jim Schwartz - is legit. Second year defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is the anchor and has already established himself as the best defensive tackle in the NFL. Suh flat out dominated as a rookie with 10 sacks, and when combined with Corey Williams, (eventually) rookie Nick Fairley, Cliff Avril, and Kyle Vanden Bosch, the Lions will pose a serious challenge to every offensive line they face. Deficiencies at the second level of the defense were seemingly upgraded with free agent signings Justin Durant and Stephen Tulloch, so the front seven is formidable.
However, breaking the culture of losing is a difficult challenge and something a team has to learn how to do. Anyone predicting playoffs for the Lions is suggesting they're a better team than Green Bay, which is laughable. Think about it. The NFC North will most likely not generate a wild card berth, odds are those will go to teams from the NFC East and South, leaving one playoff ticket for the NFC North competitors.
In the end their offensive line is still porous, they lack a power running game (the loss of rookie Mikel Leshoure was huge), their secondary can be exploited, the run defense is soft, so add it all up and you're left with a 7-9 team whose only triumph may be leaving the comfortable nest they've made in the NFC North basement.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Predicted Regular Season Record: 7-9
2010 Record: 6-10 (1-5 NFC North)
Welcome to Postfavreland, population: Minnesota Vikings.
What a difference a year has made for the Vikings. At this time last year the Vikings were a media magnet for all the wrong reasons, none of which had anything to do with the product on the field. From Brett Favre's alleged affinity for sexting pictures of little Brett to Jenn Sterger, to lame duck former head coach Brad Childress allowing Favre to skip out on training camp and subsequently arrive in corn pone fashion, the Vikings were a model of dysfunction where the inmates ran the asylum. The dark cloud hovering above never subsided and all of this silliness carried over into their disappointing 6-10 season.
Favre has since retired (we think), Childress has been fired, and new head coach Leslie Frasier has hitched his wagon to Donovan McNabb. Despite the new drama free situation in Minnesota, I smell another disappointment for the Vikings in 2011.
Every week you line up with Adrian Peterson in your backfield your team has a chance to win. Peterson is still at the top of his game and more importantly is entering a contract year. Fully aware of the short shelf life of an NFL running back, you know Peterson is going to be very motivated to have another monster year and earn his last major payday. But will his offensive line be able to open holes for him? Maybe. Will a change of scenery rejuvenate Donovan McNabb? It better because the McNabb I saw last year in Washington looked old, slow, and very inaccurate. Those are huge question marks that will prove to make or break the Vikings season.
One interesting point to note about the Vikings is how much the lockout affected their draft plan. Since they were unable to remedy the quarterback situation prior to the draft, they were forced to draft and severely reach for FSU quarterback Christian Ponder with the 12th overall selection. In any other year, Ponder would never have been a first round draft pick, but now he's the franchise quarterback and it is to be determined if that's a good thing or not.
New offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave loves to run the ball, so I see the Vikings trying to grind out wins this year with the running game and a controlled passing game utilizing tight ends Visanthe Shiancoe and rookie Kyle Rudolph, with the occasional down field shot to Bernard Berrian and newly appointed #1 wide receiver Percy Harvin. This potentially low scoring outfit will put pressure on the defense, which may not be able to shoulder the load.
The Vikings still have legitimate play-makers in their front seven, led by Kevin Williams and Jared Allen on the defensive line, and linebackers Chad Greenway and EJ Henderson. Kevin Williams will finally serve a two game suspension related to the positive test for the diuretic StarCaps, which is a big blow to the defense. Surely Philip Rivers is licking his chops at the Week 1 matchup versus the Vikings. If the Vikings are unable to generate consistent pressure with their font four, their already shaky secondary will be tested all season long.
Another challenge the facing the Vikings is replacing starters at every level of the defense (Ray Edwards, Pat Williams, Ben Leber, and Madieu Williams). Brian Robison and Remi Ayodele will be asked to fill the shoes of Edwards and Williams respectively, which is a big undertaking. Ayodele showed flashes manning the nose in New Orleans and is still developing, but to this point in his career Robison has been a very ordinary NFL contributor, which will allow offensive lines to slide their protection scheme to Allen's side of the line.
There are too many question marks on both sides of the ball for the Vikings to make a marked improvement over last season, but they will play a last place schedule. Even so, they will be at best a 7-9 football team.
Dan Durkin joined The Score's columnist community after finishing runner-up in the 2011 Pepsi Max Score Search. He is a graduate of the University of Illinois where he was a member of the men's football team (despite his best efforts to join the women's team). Dan is a longtime Scorehead, known as Dan in Wicker Park - even though he no longer resides in Wicker Park - who will be sharing NFL analysis and opinions. You can follow Dan on Twitter @djdurkin. To read more of Dan's blogs click here.
