Winter's Return...
Another incredible "Winter" with a high in the upper 40s, plenty of sun and nearly windless conditions...one of the best of this Winter in my opinion. Tomorrow we get another gem with very warm temps near 50, mostly sunny skies and manageable wind...do enjoy!
The weather makes a 180 degree turn over the weekend and Winter makes a comeback. Here are the components: Gulf of Mexico moisture, energy from the West Coast and an Arctic front. The three are collectively 2000 miles away from each other and are expected to merge in our coastal waters two days from now. To get a large storm out of those ingredients, several things have to come together. The front has to get through the region quick enough to deliver cold enough air but not too quick to push the developing low out to sea. The energy from the West has to successfully link the northern and southern streams to tap the deeper Gulf moisture before it slides too far offshore. It also appears that the West Coast energy will come in pieces and the first will actually spin up a separate low farther out to sea...almost a double barrel structure which would cut-off the moisture inflow to the low closest to us. Clearly, a lot needs to occur at just the right moment, so the odds of a biggie occurring are pretty small.
However, with all that said, there still should be enough of those pieces lining up to give us several inches of snow during the daylight on Saturday. The double barrel low has me concerned that moisture will be lacking though so amounts will be held down north and west of Boston. The warmer air at the start has me concerned over SE Mass at the start so amounts will be held down on the Cape. In both locals my early though are for 1-3"...fluff north and west of Boston and slop on the Cape. In between, mostly Plymouth and Bristol counties, 3-6" of snow looks likely and that should be our jackpot area.
With such a complex evolution I'm sure adjustments will be needed as we get closer.
