Will Ja'Lynn Polk, Caedan Wallace be stars for Patriots? Here's what history tells us

BOSTON -- On the one hand, Eliot Wolf and the Patriots' top decision-makers did everything right in the 2024 NFL Draft. They identified needs on the roster, and they targeted those positions with their selections. Seven of the team's eight draft picks were on offense, as the team that ranked 31st in scoring last year didn't take a defensive player until the sixth round.

On that mission, it was a success. But given where they picked some of those players, it's more than fair to have some concern about whether they will pan out at the NFL level.

When the Patriots took wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk out of Washington at No. 37 overall, they did so after nine receivers had already been drafted. And when they finally got a chance to take a tackle, thirteen of them had already gone off the board, to the point where the Patriots had to take a right tackle in Caedan Wallace with the hope that he can make the switch to the left side. 

Nobody on the planet knows whether or not they'll work out. That much is understood. But for some perspective on how the 10th receiver and 14th tackles have fared in the NFL, I went back a decade and looked at who those players were. And because everything in the draft is inexact, I spread it out to the ninth, 10th and 11 receivers and the 13th, 14th and 15th tackles off the board. 

The results? That might depend on whether you're an optimist or a pessimist -- at least at wide receiver. 

The full list will be below, but the bottom line is this: The hit rate on receivers is actually not that bad. And some of the best receivers in the NFL -- Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson, D.K. Metcalf -- were all either the ninth, 10th or 11th receivers taken in their respective draft classes.

Looking at Pro Football Reference's weighted approximate value in addition to receiving output and Pro Bowls and All-Pro recognition, there were 12 hits out of the 30 receivers taken in this group. A 40 percent hit rate is actually higher than ESPN's assessment of first-round receivers.

As for exactly the 10th receiver taken? Lockett is by far the best of the bunch, with his 59 touchdowns and nearly 8,000 receiving yards. Diontae Johnson, the 10th receiver taken in 2019, who's made a Pro Bowl and an All-Pro Second Team, was another big hit. The spot has also included some misses that might scare New England football fans, like Tyquan Thornton.

At tackle, there's a lot more variance and fewer stories of massive success found that deep into the position. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Brandon Shell were both the 15th tackles taken in their respective draft classes, with each player starting more than 65 games in their careers. David Edwards (45 career starts) and Robert Hainsey (34 starts since being drafted in 2021) were both the 14th tackles taken in their draft classes, too.

Overall, of the 30 tackles taken under these parameters, eight have proven capable of starting in the NFL on at least a somewhat regular basis. Yet some of those players started right away, presumably because they were drafted to fill a need, only to lose their grips on their jobs within two or three years.

On the more concerning level, nine of these tackles ended up not playing in the NFL at all. So based on history, there's just as good of a chance that Caedan Wallace can start for several years as there is of him not being fit for the NFL.

Now, that can't be fully stated, as there are different levels of depth in every draft. This year, we saw eight tackles taken in the first round and five more tackles going off the board late in the second round and early in the third round before the Patriots took Wallace. This draft class was lauded as having exceptional tackle depth, so comparing the spot to some past years -- like 2017, when Conor McDermott, Kofi Amichia and Jylan Ware were the 13th through 15th tackles taken -- would not be accurate.

But, well, that's the history. As someone around here used to say quite often, it is what it is. And it's now up to Polk, Wallace, and the Patriots' coaching staff to try to make them success stories in New England. 

The 9th, 10th and 11th WRs drafted by year (hits and potential hits in bold)

2023
9th Tank Dell
10th Jalin Hyatt
11th Cedric Tillman

2022
9th John Metchie III 
10th Tyquan Thornton
11th George Pickens

2021
9th Tutu Atwell
10th Terrace Marshall Jr.
11th Josh Palmer

2020
9th Laviska Shenault
10th K.J. Hamler
11th Chase Claypool

2019
9th D.K. Metcalf
10th Diontae Johnson
11th Jalen Hurd

2018
9th Michael Gallup
10th Tre'Quan Smith
11th Keke Coutee

2017
9th ArDarius Stewart
10th Carlos Henderson
11th Chris Godwin

2016
9th Leonte Carroo
10th Chris Moore
11th Malcolm Mitchell

2015
9th Devin Funchess
10th Tyler Lockett
11th Jaelen Strong

2014
9th Davante Adams
10th Cody Latimer
11th Allen Robinson

The 13th, 14th and 15th OTs drafted by year (hits and potential hits in bold)

2023
13th Colby Sorsdal
14th Asim Richards
15th Warren McClendon

2022
13th Cordell Volson
14th Darian Kinnard
15th Matt Waletzko

2021
13th Spencer Brown
14th Robert Hainsey
15th James Hudson

2020
13th Charlie Heck
14th Cameron Clark
15th Colton McKivitz

2019
13th Yodny Cajuste
14th David Edwards
15th Justin Skule

2018
13th Rick Leonard
14th Will Richardson
15th Tyrell Crosby

2017
13th Conor McDermott
14th Kofi Amichia
15th Jylan Ware

2016
13th Caleb Benenoch
14th Joe Haeg
15th Brandon Shell

2015
13th T.J. Clemmings
14th Andrew Donnal
15th Tayo Fabuluje

2014
13th Kevin Pamphile
14th Garrett Scott
15th Laurent Duvernay-Tardif