When Tuukka Rask Faces Heavy Workload, Bruins Are Nearly Undefeated
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- In any sport, it's often difficult to square perception with reality. Opinions are often so ingrained, and opposing sides are often so deeply entrenched, that there's no statistic or trend or change in character that could ever really work to permanently change perception. And in a sport as fluid as hockey, where it's simply difficult to portray anything as factually true, that's especially the case.
This is all a roundabout way of saying that sometimes people accuse Tuukka Rask of not playing to the level that his $7.5 million salary might dictate. Yet ... well ... he might be doing just that.
Obviously, the traditional numbers on Rask aren't good at all. His 2.53 GAA has him ranked 25th in the NHL, almost a full half-goal behind league leader (min. 40 starts) Ben Bishop's 2.06 GAA. And Rask's .919 save percentage has him ranked 18th in the league, well behind the .929 mark of Corey Crawford, who leads the league among goalies with at least 40 starts.
Both numbers are well behind his career 2.23 GAA and .925 save percentage, and so it might stand to reason that he's having a down year. But anyone who's watched the Bruins this year knows that the circumstances have made it less than ideal for the goaltender. Notably, the lack of able D-men has made it a tough season to be a goaltender for Boston.
Yet, as Rask was peppered with a relentless onslaught of pucks on Monday night in Sunrise, I was curious of two things. First, how many times this year has Rask been forced to make 35 or so saves? Secondly, what has been the Bruins' fate on those nights?
To me, those are the nights when a team leans on its $7 million goaltender, and if the Bruins are losing on those nights, then it does not really make sense to really have that upper-echelon goalie if he can't stand on his head when he's facing a barrage to keep his team in the game.
He was certainly up to the task on Monday, even though he allowed four goals, because he made a season-high 47 saves and faced a season-high 51 shots. That included a stretch in the second period when the Bruins were outshot 18-5.
Monday was an impressive showing, but here's what I found most interesting: In games where Rask faced the heaviest workloads (35 or more saves), the Bruins are now 7-0-1. In those eight games, Rask has a .957 save percentage and 1.69 GAA.
Expanding that further, if we consider 30 shots per game to be the league average, here's how the Bruins have fared when Rask has faced an above-average (30-plus shots) workload: 14-3-4. In those 21 games, Rask has a .937 save percentage and 2.34 GAA.
To put it succinctly, when Rask has been forced to face an above-average number of shots, he's been his best, and the Bruins have thrived. They own a .667 winning percentage in games where Rask faces more than 30 shots, and they're a sub-.500 team (13-15-2) when he sees 30 or fewer shots. (For what it's worth, the trend doesn't hold up when backup Jonas Gustavsson starts, as the Bruins are 4-3-0 in games when Gustavsson has faced more than 30 shots. They're 6-2-1 in games when Gustavsson starts and faces 30 or fewer shots.)
Does that one number prove definitively that Rask is earning every dollar in his massive contract? Of course not. Yet it should provide some comfort to anyone worried that he may be falling short of the agreement. The numbers show that when the Bruins have really leaned on Rask, he's been able to provide the necessary support.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
