Whatever Gronkowski's Injury Situation May Be, Patriots Would Be Wise To Play It Safe
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Rob Gronkowski suffered a punctured lung during Sunday night's game. Or, perhaps, he did not.
While the reports on the specifics of Gronkowski's injury are conflicting -- when it comes to Gronkowski, aren't they always? -- there needn't be a controversy regarding the tight end's availability this coming weekend.
He shouldn't be playing. They don't need him.
On its surface, such a statement could be considered overly dismissive, especially considering the Patriots are coming off a loss and the San Francisco 49ers are coming off a very competitive game on the road in Arizona. Given the way New England's defense has been exposed on a grand stage, logic might dictate that the team is going to need its offensive weapons now more than ever to ensure that a 12-4 or 13-3 season (and home field advantage in the playoffs) does not slip away over the season's final seven weeks.
That belief may, actually, be true. But the Patriots still don't need Rob Gronkowski to defeat the San Francisco 49ers. For that matter, they would probably be all right without Tom Brady.
If the Patriots need anybody this weekend, they need LeGarrette Blount. Through 10 weeks of football, here's where the 49ers rank in key defensive categories:
Yards allowed per game: 32nd
Points allowed per game: 32nd
Pass yards allowed per game: 14th
Rush yards allowed per game: 32nd
Passing TDs allowed: 18th
Rushing TDs allowed: 30th
Obviously, the pass defense leaves itself open for a number of opportunities to throw the ball, but if Bill Belichick's team is going to do what Bill Belichick's teams always try to do, then the Patriots will look to exploit that woeful rush defense of the 49ers.
And unfortunately for Chip Kelly's squad, the Patriots have had no problems rushing for touchdowns on the season as a whole (fourth-quarter goal line stands notwithstanding). The Patriots rank third in the NFL with 13 rushing touchdowns, and 12 have come from Blount, who leads the league in that category by three touchdowns. The Patriots are certainly not the most efficient rushing team, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, but they've proven to be able to run the ball when needed. (Again, we can't let the most recent event distort the perception of the entire season, particularly when Tom Brady has said that he wasn't really trying to score on his first QB sneak from the 2-yard line.)
It also helps the Patriots' cause that San Francisco's offense has been an inept unit all year. Here's where Chip Kelly's offense ranks:
Yards per game: 29th
Points per game: T-22nd
Pass yards per game: 30th
Rush yards per game: 7th
Passing TDs: T-24th
Rushing TDs: 4th
Third-down conversions: 24th
The Patriots' defensive weakness aligns with the 49ers' offensive weakness, and the strengths line up too. While nothing can be taken for granted with regard to the Patriots' defense at this point in time, it's still a rather fair projection to expect the 49ers to even get to 21 points, which is their average for the year.
As it relates back to Gronkowski, the exact extent of his injury remains unclear from the outside -- as it always does. He and his family have famously butted heads with the team when it comes to managing his injuries over the years. That aspect of the relationship culminated last year in a joint statement that was likely sent to show that the two sides were on the same page; its mere existence spoke much more loudly to the contrary. Injury mystery clouded the start to his 2016 campaign, too, as a hamstring injury suffered during the summer forced him to miss the first two games of the year and led to him looking like a decoy in Weeks 3 and 4.
While it may stand to reason that Ian Rapoport's report of a punctured lung came from the Gronkowski side of the information spectrum and that Adam Schefter's report of a less severe "chest injury" might have come from the Patriots side, that would only be speculation based on previous disagreements. And when it comes down to it, the specifics don't even matter much in this particular instance. The Patriots are indeed a much more formidable team, but they showed in Weeks 1 and 2 that they can win games without him.
If the Patriots want to win the Super Bowl this year, they'll need Rob Gronkowski -- and they'll need him to be healthy. They don't need him to win in Week 11 (or even Week 12 at the Jets, really), and playing things extra safe this time around will work toward that much larger goal.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
