What To Watch For: Playoff Feel To Patriots-Jets
BOSTON (CBS) -- Nothing beats a divisional game at the end of the regular season, especially when both of the teams have something to play for.
As we hit Week 16, both the Patriots and Jets have plenty to play for Sunday afternoon in New Jersey. With a win, the Patriots can lock up home field advantage -- making next week's regular season finale against the Dolphins fairly meaningless. At 9-5 the Jets are still fighting for their postseason lives, and need a win to continue that battle. With a loss and wins by the Broncos, Chiefs or Steelers, that playoff dream comes to an end for New York.
Oddly enough, both teams wouldn't be in this position if they had just beaten the Eagles (at home) earlier in the season.
Here's what we'll be watching for at 1pm on Sunday afternoon:
Another Rock Fight
Week 7 was a hard-fought battle between these two squads, as the Patriots needed a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to walk away with a victory to improve to 6-0. They overcame six drops by New England receivers and an onside kick recovered by New York in the final 18 seconds of the game (you can thank a false start by Brandon Marshall that resulted in a 10 second runoff).
While the Patriots have emerged as the victors more times than not in their recent bouts against Gang Green, it's never really been easy. Since a 49-19 pounding the Pats put on the Jets in the 2012 season, the last five matchups have all been decided by three points or less (with New England winning four of them).
With so much on the line for both teams, expect another close battle on Sunday.
Maybe The Pats Will Run The Ball This Time?
In that Week 7 matchup, Tom Brady threw the ball 54 times -- 90.9 percent of New England's offensive plays. With Brady credited with four carries, that left just five running plays for LeGarrette Blount and James White. It was an easy game check for both of them that day.
That was the first week the Patriots were without Dion Lewis, so you can kind of understand why they didn't run the ball much against a very good Jets rush defense. And the Jets have just gotten better in that department, currently sitting second in the NFL allowing just 82.8 rushing yards per game and with just two rushing touchdowns against them all season. So don't be surprised if the Pats ditch the run again in this one, especially without Blount to pound the ball up the middle. New England brought in 32-year-old Steven Jackson earlier this week to give them some (hopefully) fresh legs that might be able to pick up 3-4 yards per carry, but we'll see where he's at after sitting out all of this season.
It would be hard for the Patriots not to run the ball more than last time, but you never know what Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have planned under their hoodie and visor, respectively. Given the beating Tom Brady has been taking the last few weeks (12 sacks and 26 QB hits over the last month), maybe they should let Jackson, White and whoever else wants it to run the rock at least a few times.
Patriots Third Down Defense vs. Jets Third Down Offense
This one will likely be won by the team that has more success on third down. The Patriots defense has been phenomenal getting off the field on third down this season, but the Jets are having some very good success converting in those must-have situations.
The Jets went 8-for-14 on third downs in the first meeting, and are converting 46 percent (28-for-61) on third down during their current four-game win streak.
On the flip side, the Patriots' D is holding opponents to a 29 percent success rate over their last four games (including their only losses of the season). In their last eight games, opponents are just 35-for-111 on third down against the Patriots -- a 32 percent success rate. For the season, the Patriots are holding opponents to a 36 percent success rate on third down, which rounds out the Top 10 in the league.
The Jets' D is pretty solid on third down as well though, keeping opponents to a 33 percent success rate.
Something is going to give on Sunday.
Another Good Test For Secondary
Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan have been spectacular this season, especially as of late, but they'll have their hands full on Sunday.
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker form a pretty scary duo in New York's receiving corps, and former civil war general Ryan Fitzpatrick has been playing out of his mind this season. Marshall and Decker have both caught a touchdown in seven games this season, and the Jets are 6-1 in those contests.
It'll be up to the New England secondary to slow one of the best passing offenses in Jets history (Fitzpatrick is just 580 yards away from setting a new franchise record), a task they've been up to on many occasions this season. But with the Jets fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, the challenge will be that much bigger on Sunday.
Tune in to Patriots-Jets Sunday afternoon on 98.5 The Sports Hub and WBZ-TV — the flagship stations of the New England Patriots. Pregame coverage on 98.5FM begins at 10am, with coverage on WBZ kicking off at 11:30am with Patriots GameDay. After the game stay tuned to three hours of postgame coverage on the Hub, and to Patriots 5th Quarter on WBZ!
