What To Watch For: Patriots-Broncos About Much More Than Brady-Manning Matchup
BOSTON (CBS) -- It's not exactly the Super Bowl, but as far as midseason meetings go, it's about as close as it gets.
Peyton Manning and his merry gang of Denver Broncos will be coming to town on Sunday afternoon to take on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a matchup that almost always lives up to the impossible levels of hype.
That's because, of course, of the presence of Nos. 12 and 18 taking snaps for their respective teams. Yet while the two quarterbacks will certainly figure into the final outcome, there's much more to this game than the two future Hall of Famers.
So without further adieu, let's lay out What To Watch For when the Broncos and Pats kick off Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium.
The Unpredictable Weather
Bill Belichick made it clear on Friday that he doesn't put too much stock in weather forecasts. After all, living in New England all this time, he's surely seen the weather drastically change in an instant.
Yet the forecasts seem pretty clear for Sunday, and they call for cold temperatures that will drop below 40 degrees, with strong winds.
It's not all that dissimilar to last year's Broncos visit, which saw the wind completely shut down Manning's passing game and even led to Belichick opting to take the wind instead of the football to start overtime. It was a huge gamble, but eventually, it paid off.
And cold weather has rarely been Peyton's friend, as he is 8-11 in his career in games that are played outdoors in temperatures below 40 degrees. He has 30 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in those games, and that .421 winning percentage is a massive drop-off from his .724 winning percentage in all other conditions.
If it's cold and windy as expected, the entire Broncos offensive game plan could go out the window. That is, unless ...
Back To The Ground Game?
In last year's regular-season meeting, all Manning had to do was hand the football to his running back. It was nearly enough to win the game, as Knowshon Moreno (224 yards, one touchdown on 37 carries), Montae Ball (40 yards on seven carries) and C.J. Anderson (16 yards on three carries) ran the ball at will against a Patriots defense that dared Manning to check down into running plays. Manning did exactly what the defense wanted and it ultimately led to a confused and disjointed Broncos offense that scored just seven points in the second half. It allowed the Patriots to climb back into the game and force overtime.
This time around, it'll be interesting to see how both sides approach the game. Moreno is gone, and Ball was ruled out due to injury, so Ronnie Hillman will be taking over main running back duties. Will the Patriots come out with the two-high safety look? If so, will Manning let his running game do all the heavy lifting? The weather will play a major factor, but so will the strategy. It'll be rather fascinating to see what Belichick has in store for Manning, and vice versa.
Watch Out For Pot Roast!
Terrance Knighton doesn't have any statistics that jump off the page at you. In seven games, he's got 15 tackles, 0.5 sacks and zero forced fumbles. But he lands on this list because he was an absolute menace last year against the Patriots.
In the regular-season meeting, Knighton recorded three tackles (one for a loss), and in the AFC Championship Game, he delivered the back-breaking sack of Tom Brady on a gotta-have-it fourth down attempt. On that play, the Patriots faced a fourth-and-3 from the Denver 29-yard line, trailing 20-3. Maybe the Patriots had the perfect play drawn up, but we'll never know, because Knighton -- aka Pot Roast -- burned right past Logan Mankins and then devoured Brady.
The game was basically over, thanks to that individual effort from Knighton.
This year, Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly are going to have to do a better job, because we've seen time and time again that when Brady faces pressure up the middle, the Patriots offense goes kaput.
Earth To Edelman?
Julian Edelman was arguably the Patriots' MVP in the early part of the season, as he looked to be Tom Brady's only reliable receiving option. Yet as the rest of the receiving corps has gotten more involved, Edelman's step back has gone a bit further than one would expect.
He's caught just five passes for 58 yards in the past two games, a steep drop from his average of 6.7 catches and 68 yards per game in the first six weeks of the season. Of course, the Patriots have won their last two games, so it's not as if Edelman's drop in production has hurt the team in any way.
Yet he is an important cog in the passing game, and this may be the perfect opportunity for him to break back out. For one, he's well rested, as he hasn't taken too many hits over the past few weeks. Secondly, he matched up well against the Broncos last season, when he caught nine passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns in the regular season and then caught 10 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game.
This time around, it could be another big week for Edelman.
The Quarterbacks Might Garner Some Attention
OK, fine. For as much as there are dozens of factors that will come into play in this game, this is still Brady-Manning. You've heard by now that this will be the 16th time these two great quarterbacks will meet, making it a full season of games between Brady and Manning. Brady's already won 10 games in that series (which you can review in painstaking detail right here), but seemingly each game carries its own importance.
Plus, who know how many more of these there will be? In a sport like football, where devastating injuries take place every other minute around the league, there's never a guarantee that these two all-time greats will be on the same field ever again. If they are, great, but in the meanwhile, we should all enjoy it while it lasts. Once these two are gone, the league will simply not be the same.
Tune in to Sunday's Patriots-Broncos game on 98.5 The Sports Hub and WBZ-TV — the flagship stations of the New England Patriots. Pregame coverage begins on WBZ-TV at 11:30am with Patriots GameDay, and on 98.5FM at 1:30pm. Following the game, switch over to myTV38 for Patriots 5th Quarter, and stay tuned on the Hub for three full hours of postgame reaction and analysis.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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