What To Watch For: Jets' Running Game, Rex Ryan's Creativity And Patriots' Need To Avoid Injury
BOSTON (CBS) -- The Patriots clinched their division last weekend, but with two games left on the schedule, they still have a lot to play for.
With a pair of wins to close the season, the Patriots will secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they slip up against either the Jets or the Bills, they'll need the Broncos to fall to either the Bengals or Raiders in order to maintain that top spot in the AFC. Because the Broncos' losing to Cincy or Oakland seems hard to imagine, it stands to reason that the Patriots are going to need to win these two games in order to earn that No. 1 seed.
A quick look at the standings, which shows that the Jets are 3-11, would tell you that picking up a win this weekend will not be extraordinarily difficult for the Patriots. Yet the history between the two teams -- plus some unique factors that are sure to play a role -- means that coming out of Sunday with a win will be anything but a walk in the park.
Here's what to watch for when this game kicks off on Sunday afternoon.
Rex's Imagination Run Wild
If you've been living under a rock, perhaps you were unaware that Rex Ryan is in his final weeks as head coach of the Jets. The once-bombastic and brash Rexy has been reduced to a self-deprecating, sad case down in New Jersey, and it's clear that ownership and the front office intends on taking a new direction for 2015.
So with just two weeks left in his time with the Jets, and with his least-favorite team coming to visit for his final home game, it's safe to expect Ryan to dig deep into his brilliant football mind and devise some high-risk high-reward schemes on defense in an effort to confuse Tom Brady.
Really, this wouldn't represent a major change in philosophy for Ryan, who's tried to compensate for the lack of talent in his secondary by drawing up some truly exotic blitzes. Yet with Bill Belichick on the opposing sideline and Brady under center, you just know that Rex will have that extra bit of motivation to come up with something special for this game.
Brady -- who's no slouch himself in the football IQ department -- better be ready.
Ball Protection
The goal of such a drastic defensive approach, of course, will be to force the Patriots into turnovers. After all, nothing levels the field quite like a well-timed (or ill-timed, depending on your perspective) turnover.
And if you look at the overall work of each team this year, you can see why one sits atop the league standings while one is near the basement. The Patriots have a plus-11 turnover ratio, good for fourth-best in the NFL and second-best in the AFC. The Jets, meanwhile, have a minus-11 turnover ratio, which is the second-worst such mark in the league.
There were no turnovers on either side when the two teams faced off in October, a game which the Patriots were only able to win by two points. A fumble here or an interception there could make the difference for whichever team can make a play.
Ground Game
The Jets may not have too many redeeming qualities, but their running game would certainly count as one. New York ranks second in the NFL with 147.1 rushing yards per game, with the running backs Chris doing most of the damage. Chris Ivory has rushed for 739 yards on 174 carries (4.2 YPC) while Chris Johnson has gained 613 yards on 135 carries (4.5 YPC).
You'll remember that the last time these two teams met, the Jets nearly pulled off the upset, thanks largely to running the ball and controlling the clock. The Jets rushed for 218 yards that night, with Ivory picking up 107 on 21 carries.
Given that Geno Smith's completion percentage is under 58 percent, the quarterback is clearly not a passer. New England needs to change its approach in order to shut down that running game this time around, or else the Jets will find themselves flirting with another potential upset.
Bones, Tendons, Muscles, Etc.
Look, it's important for the Patriots to win these last two games. Earning that first-round bye is important. Securing home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs is important.
But nothing -- nothing -- is more important than keeping the key players healthy. That list includes, in order of importance:
1. Tom Brady
2. Rob Gronkowski
3. Darrelle Revis
4. Julian Edelman
5. Jamie Collins
6. Dont'a Hightower
7. LeGarrette Blount
Ideally, you wouldn't want any of your players to get hurt. But if you could only choose seven players to put into a protective bubble until January, that septet would be it.
(There will always be arguments about which players are most important, and perhaps some would disagree with the members and order of this list. So here's a brief justification:
1. Brady: Obvious.
2. Gronkowski: You've seen what Patriots postseasons look like when Gronkowski is anything less than 100 percent.
3. Revis: The MVP of the defense. Everything changes if he's not out there. Everything.
4. Edelman: Brady's spread the ball out pretty well, but Edelman is still his main man. The offense slows down when TB12 doesn't have JE11.
5. Collins: The most athletic, versatile player on the defense. Oh, and he can block field goals, too.
6. Hightower: The quarterback of the defense. Every defense needs an anchor. Hightower is that anchor.
7. Blount: This guy can be a horse when the weather gets cold. Jonas Gray has shown some flashes, but Blount is the proven ball carrier.)
Of course, all of these players must still play and get their regular reps. Don't expect Bill Belichick to pull his starters at halftime or anything like that. He's made it clear that he doesn't coach afraid, and treating his stars with kid gloves is not in his repertoire.
So instead, you'll have to watch the game with one hand covering your eyes and the other hand holding crossed fingers.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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