What To Watch For In Steelers-Patriots AFC Championship Game
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Weeks between football games tend to feel long. The week between the divisional round and the conference title game can feel interminable.
Alas, it's finally the weekend, and it's almost time for the Patriots and Steelers to kick off this year's AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium.
It's a pretty high-octane matchup, as the Patriots are riding an eight-game winning streak, while the Steelers have won nine straight games. Neither team has lost since Nov. 13. Alas, one will lose this Sunday. The other will move on to the Super Bowl. That's quite the scenario.
As for the game itself, here are four keys for focus in Sunday night's AFC Championship.
An Offensive Flow
If the Patriots can jump out to an early double-digit lead, that may be enough to bury the Steelers deep enough to make a road comeback nearly impossible. For the Steelers, disrupting the Patriots' offensive game plan right off the jump needs to be priority No. 1.
And, considering Houston managed to be successful in that endeavor last weekend, there's evidence that it can be done.
Here's how the Patriots started last week's game:
--Three plays, 8 yards, punt
--Two plays, 35 yards (plus 30 yards on a penalty), TD
--Kick return TD
--One play, 0 yards, INT
--Fumbled kick return
--Three plays, 2 yards, punt
--Six plays, 45 yards, punt
Considering kick return touchdowns (and kick return fumbles, for that matter) are a bit of an anomaly and certainly can't be counted on, it wasn't the most encouraging start to the playoffs for Tom Brady's offense. Looking at the offense, and that's one successful drive out of five, with a pick sprinkled in.
Now, because the Houston offense was inept, this did not prove to be overly problematic for New England. But it's hardly a recipe for success.
From Pittsburgh's perspective, if the defense can limit the receiving opportunities underneath and force Brady to throw too many deep passes, it could be possible to to force a similar result.
Really, the Patriots' offense vs. the Steelers' defense in the first handful of drives could be the most critical part of the whole game.
Red Zone Defense
The Pittsburgh Steelers failed to find the end zone last week against Kansas City. Perhaps you had heard? I do believe that some folks have been mentioning that this week.
Anyway, as a result, the Steelers scored just 18 points. It was the fifth time the Steelers had been held under 20 points on the year, and here's why that's interesting: in the other four games, they went 0-4. For the mathematically disinclined, those four losses made up 80 percent of Pittsburgh's five losses on the season. Three of those losses came on the road. So, when the Steelers are kept in the teens or lower, it generally leads to a loss. (The lone exception, of course, is when Alex Smith is the opposing quarterback, what with his allergies to throwing the ball down the field.)
For the Patriots, keeping the Steelers out of the end zone and forcing them to settle for field goals will be of significant importance. Considering Roethlisberger's thrown nine touchdowns (and nine interceptions) total in his nine road games this year, doing so is a real possibility.
In order to do it, they'll need to cover the obvious threats in Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, but also the non-superstars like Jesse James and Eli Rogers. In other words, Patriots safety Duron Harmon can't get caught looking elsewhere, only to leave a tight end wide open in the end zone for an easy six points like he did last week.
It's a matchup that does favor the Patriots, as Pittsburgh reached the end zone on just 55 percent of red zone trips this season, which left them ranked in the middle of the pack. The Patriots allowed touchdowns on just 51 percent of opponents' red zone trips, which ranked them in the top 10.
Attacking The Rookie(s)
Tom Brady is a pretty nice guy. Artie Burns seems like a nice young man. Unfortunately, in a high-stakes football game on Sunday evening, niceties will be pushed aside, and things might get ugly.
Burns is Pittsburgh's rookie cornerback, and no matter which assignment he draws vs. the Patriots, it won't be easy. To Burns' credit, he's been all right this year, though Pro Football Focus noted that he allowed more touchdowns than any other rookie cornerback.
Add rookie safety Sean Davis to the mix, and Mike Tomlin will be asking a lot of his first-year players. Going on the road, in the playoffs, and being tasked with limiting Tom Brady is a tough gig.
For some perspective on something wild: Artie Burns was born in 1995, the same year that Tom Brady went to Michigan.
When Brady suffered an injury during the Patriots' AFC Championship Game win over the Steelers in 2001, Burns was but a wee little 6-year-old.
And now, in January of 2017, Burns will be trying to pick off Brady's passes with a trip to the Super Bowl hanging in the balance.
Lew-sing The Ball
Dion Lewis is an incredible offensive weapon for Bill Belichick to have at his disposal. He is simply dynamic with the ball in his hands, as he possesses the speed, quicknes and elusiveness to make defenders miss but also has the toughness to lower his shoulder and drive through the chests of linebackers. And certainly, this all was on display as he made his playoff debut last week and became the first player in postseason history to score a receiving, rushing and return touchdown in the same game.
Not bad.
One problem: He struggled to hold on to the football.
He fumbled on a kick return, giving the Texans the ball at the 12-yard line for a drive that quickly led to a touchdown. Later in the fourth quarter, with the Patriots only need Lewis to hold on to the football in order to set up a field goal, he once again put the ball on the ground. Guard Joe Thuney fell on it, preserving the field-goal opportunity, but that was a fumble that could have opened the door for Houston if it had just bounced another way.
For as dynamic as Lewis may be, the fact is that he may have used up all of his leash. One more fumble, and he might be seeing a lot of LeGarrette Blount and James White in the backfield as he watches from the sideline.
It's a significant factor, too, when you consider that the Patriots are undefeated when Lewis plays since he joined the team last season.
Lewis should be able to avoid fumbling this week. He had fumbled just four times in his career on 239 touches, so fumbling twice in the same game is a rarity. How well he responds to the first two-fumble game of his career will play a major role in how well the Patriots offense functions.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
