What To Watch For: Can Patriots Keep Jackson, Ravens From Running Wild?
By Matthew Geagan, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- The New England Patriots are 8-0 for just the third time in franchise history, and would love to head into their bye week at a perfect 9-0. But the Baltimore Ravens are standing in their way.
Fans have been clamoring for a tough matchup for the Patriots, and they'll get that on Sunday. It starts a key stretch for New England, with five fairly difficult matchups over the next six weeks.
And things are always interesting when Bill Belichick puts his Patriots up against John Harbaugh and his Ravens. Here's what we'll be watching for during the game, while waiting for the inevitable fireworks after it:
Running Ravens
The Patriots defense is excellent, one of the best in the game today and perhaps ever. The doubters will say they haven't played anyone good, which will end Sunday.
But the Ravens are well suited to exploit the one hole on New England's otherwise stellar defense, and that's their struggles to stop the run. Teams aren't racking up big rushing yard totals against the Patriots at just 86 yards per game (those giant leads they build have something to do with it), but opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per attempt, which has the Patriots ranked 21st in the league. Now they face a Ravens team that feasts on teams with their ground attack.
The Ravens lead the NFL in both rushing yards (1,429 in seven games) and yards per rush (3.2 yards per attempt). That's thanks to quarterback Lamar Jackson running like a running back. It's not just his escapability in the pocket; the Ravens draw up plays specifically for Jackson to run. He's succeeded thus far, dynamically scampering for 576 yards on 83 attempts, good for 6.9 yards per carry. He has 268 rushing yards in his last two games alone. (Disclaimer: one of those games -- and 152 of those yards -- came against the Bengals.)
And when it isn't Jackson picking up the yards on the ground, Mark Ingram is doing his part at 4.7 yards per carry. The veteran back has found the end zone seven times this season, picking up 470 rushing yards along the way.
This ground attack has helped the Ravens control the clock throughout the season, ranking first in the NFL in time of possession at 35:33 per game. The Pats rank third at 34:13 per game.
On the flip side, the Ravens are pretty good against the run, and should be even better against New England's struggling ground attack. If they can keep the ball out of Tom Brady's hands, it will go a long way in handing the Patriots their first loss of the season.
Make Jackson Throw
That's why it will be important for the New England defense to force Jackson to use his arm as much as possible. As great as he's been on the ground, the second-year QB is still prone to making mistakes through the air. He has five picks in his seven games, with two coming against the Browns in Week 4 and three against the Steelers in Week 5. He was sacked nine times over those two games, so if the Patriots can apply the same pressure they've been all season, they'll force Jackson into making mistakes. It could be a big game for the Boogeymen, which would be fitting given the time of the year.
Jackson primarily looks to his tight end, Mark Andrews, who has 36 catches on the season. Next up is rookie Marquise "Hollywood" Brown with 21 catches on 39 targets. The Patriots secondary, you may have heard, is pretty good this year. They have the corners and safeties to matchup with anyone Jackson goes looking for, and if the front line and linebackers can goad the quarterback into rushing his throws, the Pats should add to their league-leading 19 interceptions on the year.
First Quarter Points
Getting out to a lead early will go a long way in forcing the Ravens offense to go more aerial than on the ground. And the Patriots have been pretty great at doing just that this season.
New England needs just two points in the first quarter on Sunday night to surpass their first-quarter scoring from last season. They've outscored opponents 87-7 in the first frame this season, which is just ridiculous. It's even more impressive considering they've scored on their first possession just once in the last five games.
Bonus: Folk Story
The Patriots will have a new kicker on Sunday night, with veteran Nick Folk replacing Mike Nugent, who was released on Tuesday. Folk was an 80 percent kicker during his 11-year career but hasn't booted one through the uprights in an NFL game since 2017. He last kicked for the Arizona Hotshots of the now defunct Alliance of American Football earlier this year, converting 12 of his 16 field goal attempts. His 55 yarder will forever go down as the longest field goal in the once glorious league.
But now all that matters is what he does with the Patriots, and with the competition getting a little stiffer, and the weather getting a little worse, they're going to need a reliable kicker should they find themselves in close games. We'll see if Nugent is that guy, or if Bill Belichick will have to scrape the bottom of the kicker barrel again during the bye week.
