What If Alex Rodriguez Joined Red Sox In 2003?
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- "What if?"
It has been, always and forever, the most asked question in the world of sports. What if this play went slightly differently? What if that decision wasn't made? What if a bounce, a breeze, a freak occurrence went the other way?
In some respects, it can be a painful endeavor, exploring the "what if" of past sporting events. But the converse is true as well, as sometimes things work out for the better despite efforts toward the contrary.
For the Boston Red Sox, that certainly is true regarding their history with Alex Rodriguez.
With the news coming down on Sunday that Rodriguez will abruptly be retiring at the end of this work week, the retrospectives are coming. Columnists and talking heads will try to contextualize an incredibly impressive yet undeniably questionable career from one of baseball's all-time greats. He's fourth on the all-time home run list, trailing only Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth. He's 20th on the all-time hit list, sixth in total bases, and third in RBIs, again trailing only Aaron and Ruth.
Yet he's also unmistakably ... A-Rod. He's a player who should have been celebrated for his greatness but instead spent much of his career being arguably the least likable star in the sport. And he's been busted for steroids. Twice.
And if the Red Sox had their way back in 2003, he'd have done most of it with a B on his hat.
The story's well-known but worth revisiting as A-Rod prepares for the final road trip of his career, which will fittingly take place in Boston.
It was December of 2003, and the Red Sox were reeling from the most devastating, season-ending gut punch since Bill Buckner. The franchise desired change, and the Texas Rangers presented that opportunity.
Eventually, the two teams managed to work out what was one of the biggest trades in baseball history in terms of star power and dollars being moved. Manny Ramirez and prospect Jon Lester were going to go to Texas. Alex Rodriguez would go to Boston. To complete the makeover, Nomar Garciaparra was being traded to the White Sox in exchange for outfielder Magglio Ordonez.
The 2004 Boston Red Sox were going to be a completely rebuilt team. Alex Rodriguez and Curt Schilling were going to be the centerpieces.
But of course, the proposed restructuring of Rodriguez's mammoth contract was not approved by the players' union, and the deal was nixed.
Two months later, A-Rod was a Yankee.
Baseball history was forever altered.
While we know what happened next -- the Jason Varitek mitt to the face, the Slap Heard 'Round The World, the breaking of an 86-year championship drought, the World Series MVP performance by Manny Ramirez -- it's safe now to wonder ... what if?
What if the Red Sox and Rangers figured out those contract details and executed the deal? What if Rodriguez slid right in at shortstop at Fenway Park, replacing a local legend in Nomar, with the expectation that the home crowd would warm up to him once the fans started seeing that production? What if Manny Being Manny never became a Boston phenomenon, with Ramirez instead exiled to Texas for his best years?
For step one, let's perform an exercise that probably isn't very applicable in real life but is nonetheless our only real option. Let's compare the stats of all involved parties in 2004.
Rodriguez: 155 G, .286 BA, .888 OPS, 36 HR, 106 RBI, 112 R
Rodriguez playoffs: 11 G, .320 BA, 1.014 OPS, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 11 RRamirez: 152 G, .308 BA, 1.009 OPS, 43 HR, 130 RBI, 108 R
Ramirez playoffs: 14 G, .350 BA, .923 OPS, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 8 RGarciaparra: 81 G, .308 BA, .842 OPS, 9 HR, 41 RBI, 52 R
Ordonez: 52 G, .292 BA, .836 OPS, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R
Again, it's not quite as simple as taking one player's season for one team and universally applying it to say those stats would be identical or even similar if that player were on another team. But it's all we have.
And in that respect, A-Rod and Manny are nearly a wash, but not quite. Ramirez led the league in home runs, slugging, and OPS during the regular season, and he really upped his game when the season was on the line in October. From Game 4 of the ALCS through Game 4 of the World Series, he batted .371 as the Red Sox went on a historic eight-game winning streak to win it all.
While Rodriguez's playoff numbers look good on the whole, he wilted when the Yankees needed him the most, batting .118 in Games 4-7 when the Yankees could have clinched their trip to the World Series. Also, the whole slap thing. How embarrassing.
As for Nomar and Magglio, injuries hampered both players from doing much in 2004. Nomar later proved to be more valuable when he was the main piece of the three-team trade that sent Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz to Boston at the trading deadline, as both players held key roles in that championship run. If the Sox had acquired Ordonez and he did suffer that knee injury that limited him to just 52 games, it's fair to imagine the Red Sox woefully lacking production out of their left fielder, thus severely impacting their championship hopes.
To be sure, A-Rod's production was great, but Manny's was better. And considering the magic that the '04 Red Sox team seemed to have (they went 53-21 after August), it feels safe to state with a great degree of certainty that the Red Sox would not have won the World Series in 2004 if they had acquired A-Rod like they wanted to.
And beyond that, you have to start wondering about 2007 and 2013. The latter of which absolutely never would have been possible if Jon Lester was property of the Rangers. Lester, you'll recall, pitched 213.1 innings during the 2013 season, posting a 3.75 ERA before going 4-1 with a 1.56 ERA in five playoff starts en route to the Red Sox' third World Series victory in 10 years.
Lester contributed to the 2007 team, famously starting the clinching Game 4 of the World Series just a few months after returning to baseball after successful treatment for cancer. But Ramirez was a significant contributor in 2007 as well, hitting .348 with a 1.160 OPS, four home runs and 16 RBIs in Boston's 14 playoff games. That included a .400 average and 1.411 OPS in the ALDS vs. the Angels and ALCS vs. the Indians. He also casually served as protection in the lineup for David Ortiz, which can't quite be quantified. It can, however, be questioned how well Rodriguez would have been able to do the same.
Of course, "what if" questions remain unanswered because history can never be rewritten. We can only take what we know and make our best approximations as to how differently things would have played out before our eyes.
And while we can't know anything in this alternate reality to be 100 percent accurate, we can safely assume that there are no baseball fans in Boston who'd be willing to go back in time and change anything about the events of December 2003.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
