Welcome Back...
Noting like a little snowstorm talk to grab the attention of a few old-school bloggers...thanks for returning...and to the regulars, thanks for sticking around and for your thoughts.
No need to get into detail over the obvious...in this corner we have the GFS with the big bomb and in that corner we have the EURO with a sideswipe. Which way to go??? Well for now...this far out...you really have to stick with the more reliable model and time and time again that's the EURO. With that said it doesn't mean we won't get nailed it just means that the odds favor we won't and with so much up in the air right now that's what we have to go with...odds. It is very certain that there will be a large East Coast or ocean storm late in the weekend. A product of a shortwave spinning around the base of the longwave trough digging it deep into the SE US possibly tapping into Gulf of Mexico moisture. Ultimately, the configuration of the longwave trough will determine the path and direction of the developing surface low out ahead of the trough and its eventual impact on the Northeast. Currently, the GFS has a negatively tilted trough which keeps the surface low from getting too far east before heading north. While the EURO is more neutral allowing for the surface low to head off the East Coast more before getting captured by the upper level system. The problem is that many little bundles of energy, some of which are still out over the Pacific Ocean, will pull and tug and morph into shape the upper level trough so we'll just have to wait to see how it starts to unfold.
Until then, another blast of bitter air has swooped in...highs tomorrow will end up colder than last week's cold outbreak...low to mid 20s! The cold will abate a little end of the week when highs will strive to reach 40. Flurries will continue for several more hours tonight with an upper level vort max passing overhead. Another will spin over tomorrow evening and night for additional flurries. Other than that we are looking at tranquil times.
Thanks again for participating, these next several days should be a lot of fun. Barry is in for Melissa this week so he'll have you bright and early.
