Weekend Going Out In Style....Tropical Troubles Await
Another stellar day with bright sunshine, high clouds and temps quickly warming through the day. Highs will top out in the lwr-mid 80's making for a warmer summery feel this afternoon inland. The hot spot will be much of northern and western New England, but the heat will extend into SNH, Northern Worcester and Merrimack Valley with the best chance of seeing temps climb into the mid 80's. Meanwhile, relief from the heat will again be found at the beaches with light SE winds keeping temps in the upper 60's and lwr 70's. Again, it may be obvious, but I can not stress enough sun protection from days like this...especially if you are going to be at the beach, ballpark, golfcourse, ect where you will be exposed to the sun directly for long durations.
Amazing looking at the satellite this morning and all the areas of low pressure off the coast to keep track of. Our models do not handle all these pieces of energy perfectly, so there will be a bit of now casting in the coming days. Either way, it is pretty clear an upper low to our south will usher and direct moisture up the coast and into New England in the next 24-48 hours. There will be several pieces of energy to track along the remnants of Tropical storm Alberto which continues to maintain it's core and strength. Dry air will be it's down fall eventually, but it will supply energy and moisture into the over all flow up the east coast.
ESE winds will allow the low level moisture to begin to gather at the south coast after midnight and push inland towards dawn Monday morning. Clouds will spread from north to south monday morning with the steady showers likely waiting for midday to afternoon. This pattern will have plenty of moisture/energy to work with so embedded downpours are possible and rumbles of thunder in any elevated convection. Cool onshore winds from SE along with clouds and showers will make Monday much cooler in the lwr-mid 60's
Heading into Monday night, part of the remnants from Alberto along with other tropical moisture will be heading up the coast, but the heaviest rain will be remaining off the coast. Still, with a humid tropical environment over us, just a small amount of lift will be enough to trigger scattered showers or a downpour from Monday night into Tuesday morning. As one low pulls away, I expect some drying Tuesday with breaks in the clouds ahead of an approaching cold front. Breaks of sun will spike temps in the Lwr-mid 70's...while no breaks would keep it cooler in the 60's.
I am leaning towards the midday breaking clouds with southerly winds developing ahead an approaching cold front. The atmosphere will become destabilized enough for a few late day scattered storms along this front especially in the N & W. Still the potential for a few diurnally driven showers or storms will exist into Wednesday...but much of the time should be rain free. The one thing I am a bit concerned about is low level clouds getting trapped under an inversion. So I am expecting abundant clouds through Thursday...a few breaks of sun with temps averaging above normal with rising heights by the end of the week with temps climbing inot the 70's and 80's heading to the weekend.
An upper level ridge will help to pump in unseasonally warm air Friday and Saturday. A cold front pushing through Saturday may trigger a T'storm, but building high pressure behind the front will provide cooler less humid air for the second half of the Memorial day weekend. So while much of the week is less than perfect with a tropical feel...the unofficial start to summer should get off to a pretty good start!
