Weekend Changes?
So far we've received around 1 inch of rain but we are not done yet and there are multiple waves of moisture streaming up the East Coast. The question will they work back into New England and if so how far west?
The 500mb trough to our west is slowing down as it continues to amplify and eventually it will cut off meaning it won't pass over New England until Sunday. Because of this, the PVA (positive vorticity advection) out ahead of the trough along with the baroclinic zone offshore will provide an ideal environment for low pressure development or cyclogenesis. For now these lows are hugging the coast aiding in lift and an avenue for moisture to cruise in giving us rain. The next wave is about to arrive and steady rain and downpours will once again fill in tonight and exit tomorrow morning. The zone will then shift offshore only to be pulled back our way on Saturday as the upper level system cuts off and tugs rain back into Eastern New England at least grazing us with a little light rain during the day on Saturday if not becoming moderate once again. With the 500mb trough traversing New England on Sunday the steady precip will get kicked out to the East. However, with that cold pool of air overhead, I expect clouds to dominate and a sprinkle or flurry not out of the question either.
Next week still looks warmer, even the more pessimistic GFS is showing a warming trend after we get out of the cyclonic flow early in the week.
