Hurley's Picks: The NFL will never fix officiating because it just doesn't have to do it
BOSTON -- If you look at the NFL this week, you can't help but get swept up in some officiating controversy. It's a situation that has never really been "good," per se, but its issues tend to flare up from time to time, leading some people to declare it to be a crisis.
Are we in one now? No, probably not. But the league and its officials are clearly having a tough time officiating football games in the wake of the mishandling of Tua Tagovailoa's concussion by the Dolphins and the NFL. At least, that seems to be the case after an absolute joke of a roughing the passer penalty made to protect Tom Brady, followed by a garden-variety-but-still-abysmal roughing the passer call on Kansas City's Chris Jones on Monday night.
With the Grady Jarrett penalty on Brady, referee Jerome Boger said that the Tua situation didn't factor into his decision-making at all. Instead, he assessed that Jarrett "unnecessarily" threw Brady to the ground.
Dear reader, I don't mean to demean. I don't mean to condescend. But simply to ensure that we're all on the same page, I tell you this: In the sport of tackle football, a defender must tackle the ball carrier to the ground in order to complete a tackle. It is, by definition, a necessary part of the process of tackling.
You see?
So when Jarrett completed his tackle, it actually wasn't unnecessary at all.
You do see.
That dubious call didn't cost the Falcons the game; they were losing. But it did cost them a chance to win the game. And that's just atrocious.
It was Boger's second dubious roughing the passer call in as many weeks, after he saw "forcible contact in the head/neck area of the quarterback" despite that not taking place on Josh Allen in the Bills' win over the Ravens.
You might remember Boger and a playoff crew botching a play late in the first half of last year's Raiders-Bengals playoff game, blowing an early whistle before a Bengals touchdown, then telling us all that the whistle came after the catch, even though we all have ears, eyes, and brains. Let's have a hand for Jerome Boger, people!
Obviously, the situation was exacerbated on Monday night, when Chris Jones made arguably the most athletic play a 300-pound man can make yet was penalized for it anyway. While referee Carl Cheffers said after the game that he saw "all" of Jones' weight land on quarterback Derek Carr, the rest of us saw Jones somehow having the awareness to brace his fall with his left arm, even as he ripped the football free with his right arm.
I mean. This is art, people.
The body weight rule was put into the rulebook to prevent linebackers from taking advantage of vulnerable quarterbacks and driving them into the turf. Broken collarbones and separated AC joints are bad for business, so this rule makes sense.
Enforcing this rule on a play like this? It doesn't.
It also stood out that Cheffers didn't call roughing the passer on a play that looked similar (but possibly worse?) than the one on Brady a day earlier:
Not that such a play should be roughing the passer. But by Boger's standard, it certainly qualified.
Ideally, there'd be some sort of safeguard in an instance like like the Jones penalty. Cheffers probably couldn't see Jones brace himself with that arm, which was behind Carr's body. Replay made it pretty clear that Jones did what was possible to make the play while still respecting the laws of gravity. Perhaps a quick look at a screen could solve this problem.
Ah, but, well: No. Remember the review process for pass interference? It was so bad that it felt like the NFL was bombing it on purpose, just so that it wouldn't open the door to reviewing all penalty calls. Even the most obvious of errors were rarely fixed, and all it did was serve to delay games, to the point where the NFL ditched it entirely.
In a perfect world, a replay system to fix the problem would go into place, and we'd all live happily ever after. That's never going to happen.
And here's the dirty little secret: The NFL doesn't need to.
For as much as we all may whine or cry or bellyache about this call or that, the fact is that it hurts the NFL ... in no way. Did you turn the TV off after that awful call on Jones? No -- you probably tweeted about it, or texted a friend, thus increasing attention on the game. Even as Cheffers' crew missed some obvious holds, and even as they oddly called a defensive hold on a field goal snap (what?), you didn't turn it off. And you won't this week, or next week, or the week after that.
We've got rage and frustration and some righteous indignation, but we also have no power.
Sadly, "controversy" in any form is good for NFL business. (As someone with a residence in the New England region during the 21st century, I'd like to think I'm something of an expert on that topic.) And even when things might "look bad" for the league, I can assure you this: Things are quite good.
Even when the NFL loses, the NFL wins.
What a business!
Anyways, here are picks for all of the games we will watch and complain about on social media.
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
CHICAGO (pick 'em) over Washington
OK, I lied. The NFL loses here. We all lose here. Mr. Bezos loses here. I certainly lose here by having to try to pick a winner from these losers.
I think the Commanders are a better team but I also don't know how Carson Wentz responds to Ron Rivera's comment this week! I know Ron took a mea culpa, I know Wentz said it's all good, but man! The head coach publicly pined for the quarterback stability of Daniel Jones and Cooper Rush! That is a crisis waiting to happen.
So, X's and O's, on paper, I'm taking the Commanders and not thinking twice about it. But circumstances force my hand here.
Just to be clear, though: There is no correct choice.
ATLANTA (+5.5) over San Francisco
OK, perhaps Arthur Smith is on to something. When he went on that little anti-media rant after a Week 1 loss, he looked a bit ridiculous. But 5.5-point home dogs to a mediocre Niners team that's 1-2 on the road? Mister Smith: I APOLOGIZE.
New England (+2.5) over CLEVELAND
Technically, these two teams are pretty much the same.
BUT!
Bill Belichick showed last week that he still has a little something for people every once in a while. Shutting out the league's No. 1 offense while winning with Bailey Zappe at QB was one of those moments. And now he's in position to tie George Halas on the all-time wins list at No. 2, and he has a chance to do that ... in CLEVELAND, of all places?
I, for one, think we're about to see some of the best work of his Hall of Fame career.
(The Patriots are 8-2 vs. the Browns since Belichick became New England's head coach, with the Patriots outscoring Cleveland 269-162 in those 10 games. The losses came in 2000, a transitional year in Belichick's first season on the job, and in 2010, when the Patriots randomly flopped against Eric Mangini, who was chomping on seven pounds of tobacco at the time. If you were curious.)
New York Jets (+7.5) over GREEN BAY
Are you kidding me with this one? The Jets are frisky as all hell. The friskiest bunch going right now. And the Packers are the deadest team in the league. They are sleepwalking through their schedule. Aaron Rodgers looks roughly 27 percent invested in the process. Matt LaFleur seems confused. Famed defensive coordinator ... Joe ... Barry ... is also ... there.
Loving the points here. Not saying the Jets are going to go out and win at Lambeau. But I'm loving the points.
Jacksonville (+2) over INDIANAPOLIS
I know I got a little ahead of myself with the Jags Fever last week. Understood. Noted. Got it.
But come on. The Jags own the Colts. Now, it's a bit weird that they're wrapping up their season series in Week 6. I'll grant you that. But Jags Fever will be BACK by Sunday mid-afternoon. And that's a guarantee*.
(*It's actually not a guarantee.)
Minnesota (-3.5) over MIAMI
I'm not a college football expert. I make no bones about that. So I was a bit confused as to why Skylar Thompson was drafted.
He threw ... 12 touchdowns in 10 games last year for Kansas State. He threw ... 27 touchdowns in 26 games from 2019-21. He ran pretty well in 2019 but amassed 67 rushing yards over his final 13 games. What ah ... what was the appeal?
So I Googled, "Why did the Dolphins draft Skylar Thompson?" It was a great Google. Here's what head coach Mike McDaniel said:
"You're excited when you turn on the tape and you see a guy with passion play the position of quarterback. You could feel his command and his competitiveness and that's something that the entire team benefits from because you're touching the ball all the time and making decisions. We felt good about that opportunity. I just really like the way he played the game and how competitive he was. I think that everyone will be excited that we added another competitor to the team and move forward in that way."
All righty, then. We'll see how that passion translates to starting an NFL game. Usually "being good at quarterback" would be the best reason to draft a quarterback, but I'm no genius coach.
For now, though, after seeing this ...
... I'm going to comfortably pick the Vikings for this here football game.
Cincinnati (-1.5) over NEW ORLEANS
The Bengals may not be an AFC juggernaut like we might have expected, but they're not as bad as that 2-3 record would indicate. They're going to win this game by double digits.
Baltimore (-5.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
We do love the Giants, no doubt. Brian Daboll has a big ol' bag of tricks. But for as long as Daniel Jones is there, they're going to be limited. And the travel week from London, plus the challenge of Lamar, it's a lot. Mark this one down as a loss, but we can still talk about the G-Men hitting their Week 9 bye at 6-2.
Tampa Bay (-8) over PITTSBURGH
All the Bucs do is throw the ball. It's all they do. Tom Brady doesn't care if all of his receivers are in the hospital. He'll scrounge together four guys and throw 60 passes to them every week. He freaking loves it.
Now he's taking that mentality into Pittsburgh, where the Steelers boast the second-worst pass defense in the league in terms of yardage allowed per game (287.6). They're sixth-worst in yards allowed per attempt (7.49), and they're tied for having allowed the third-most passing touchdowns -- 11 -- thus far this season.
Now, the Steelers have counteracted some of that by picking off eight passes. That's a lot. Tied for the most in the league, in fact.
But if there's one thing the Pittsburgh Steelers have never done with consistency against Tom Brady, it's pick him off. Brady has thrown 34 touchdowns and five interceptions in 15 career games against the Steelers. That ratio might stretch to 40:15 by Sunday night.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-10.5) over Carolina
The Los Angeles Rams are actually bad. Not struggling bad. Not slumping bad. Just bad bad.
Fortunately for them, the Panthers are much worse. And they don't seem like the bunch that'll get all riled up to play for their interim coach in his first week running the show.
Arizona (-2.5) over SEATTLE
This is taking all of my energy to not get sucked into the Seattle movement. They've really been quite a story. And the Cardinals are just so underwhelming in so many ways that the Seahawks might be the pick here, with their weird start time to ... allow for people to watch 90 minutes of a potential Mariners playoff game? I actually don't know what's going on there. Might be a detriment. Hard to say.
In any case. The late-game execution by the Cardinals was so bad last week that it is tempting to write them off completely. It's difficult.
But they're the smarter pick here. Barely. Barrrrely.
Buffalo (-2.5) over KANSAS CITY
A lot will be made about Patrick Mahomes being a home underdog.
Maybe that'll spark some sort of fire? I don't know.
I feel like when these "revenge" opportunities present themselves, the team that lost the game that matters more ends up winning, and people say "REVENGE!" even though no revenge has been attained.
But really, you're talking about a crapshoot here. Look at this: They're both 4-1. The Bills' strength of schedule is .480, while the Chiefs' is .460. Both teams have a .450 strength of victory. Both teams have one loss; it came on the road in Week 3 for both. Patrick Mahomes is really freaking good. Josh Allen: Also really freaking good.
Probably not a smart one to bet overall. But if you have to, go with the team seeking "REVENGE." It's more fun that way.
Dallas (+6) over PHILADELPHIA
We've got a couple of something's-gotta-give scenarios here.
Cooper Rush has to lose a game at some point, yeah?
Likewise, the Philadelphia Eagles are good, but they've got to lose a game or two at some point, right?
Fortunately, we don't need the second part to be true here. We can just trust the Cowboys to stay within a touchdown of their division rival on national TV. I think they can do it. And they might even win. It's not as if the Eagles have buzzed through the iron of the NFL thus far.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-5) over Denver
The Broncos are 1-4 against the spread. The Chargers are 4-1 against the spread. Why overthink it?
(That question was directed to Brandon Staley, who most certainly will overthink far too many things in this game. Please, Mr. Staley, sir, please. Just win the game the old-fashioned way. It's OK to do that. It's fine. Give it a whirl.)
Last week: 8-7-1
Season: 38-39-3
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
