Hurley's Picks: Add Russell Wilson to list of potential Patriots quarterbacks in 2024
BOSTON -- It's funny how everything can kind of get twisted and interwoven in the world of professional football.
Take, for example, the Christmas Eve clash between the Patriots and Broncos. Had Bailey Zappe's jump ball to DeVante Parker fallen incomplete in the final minute of the fourth quarter, the Patriots would have punted the ball to Denver with about 40 seconds left in the game. Perhaps Russell Wilson could have engineered a drive to get the Broncos into field-goal range to win the game.
Had that happened, the Patriots would have dropped to 3-12, and they'd still be in prime position to draft one of the top quarterbacks available. And the Broncos would have improved to 8-7, staying alive in the hunt for a playoff spot in a very-crowded AFC.
But as we know, that didn't happen. Parker caught the ball, the Patriots gained nine more yards, and rookie kicker Chad Ryland smashed a 56-yard game-winner right through the uprights to give the Patriots a victory. And a lot of things changed.
The most immediate change came in Denver, where Sean Payton (and likely GM George Paton) decided to move Wilson to a backup role for the next two weeks, elevating former Patriot Jarrett Stidham to QB1. Doing so will likely ensure that Wilson doesn't suffer an injury, which could put the Broncos on the hook for roughly double the guaranteed money they'll owe Wilson when they presumably cut him in the upcoming offseason.
The longer-term picture involving the Patriots gets interesting. The Patriots dropped to fourth in the draft order with that win, as the free-falling Commanders appear incapable of stopping their losing streak. And with the Patriots still having a very winnable game against the Jets left for Week 18, New England could end up toward the back end of the top 10 when it's all said and done.
And if they do end up there, trading up to get back into the top three or four to draft either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye (or Jayden Daniels) will be a questionable decision, considering the needs of the team at offensive tackle and wide receiver. And it could lead the Patriots into the free-agent waters to fix their quarterback issues.
And if Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield re-sign in their respective locations, the pickings figure to be slim. Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Tannehill, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold, Gardner Minshew, Josh Dobbs and Drew Lock are not names that will get anybody overly excited.
For that matter, neither will Russell Wilson's name. But if the Patriots end up drafting a quarterback who may need to spend a year or two on the sideline, Wilson could represent the best available veteran quarterback on the market.
It'd be a similar situation to the spring of 2020, when the Patriots tried convincing themselves and the rest of the world that Stidham was the guy. After realizing he wasn't, they had to turn to Cam Newton, who had been left without a job for three months. Did that work out? Well, no, not really. But the Patriots would have certainly won fewer than the seven games they won with Newton in 2020 if Stidham had been the starting QB. (At least one very brave, tall, muscular sports writer predicted the Cam Newton potential in New England, even when Tom Brady was still slinging touchdowns for the Patriots. So, you know, take these prognostications seriously.)
There is a case to be made, though, that Wilson in 2024 has more to offer than Newton in 2020.
In 2020, Newton was coming off a season when he played in just two games, due to a Lisfranc injury. So you could compare his 2018 season to Wilson's 2023 season if you want to get an idea of each veteran QB's status:
Russell Wilson, 2023
7-8 record
66.4% completion rate
3,070 pass yards
26 TDs, 8 INTs
98.0 passer rating
341 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
Cam Newton, 2018
6-8 record
67.9% completion rate
3,395 pass yards
24 TDs, 13 INTs
94.2 passer rating
488 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs
Factor in that Newton was two years removed from that season (with a significant injury in the interim) when he signed with the Patriots, and it's a comparable scenario.
Adding to the potential appeal of Wilson will be his cost, which figures to be low. With $39 million in guaranteed money still coming to him next year from the Broncos, he'll likely be willing to sign for cheap money in what will be his age 36 season.
It wouldn't be ideal for a Patriots team looking to execute a rebuild that will once again make them Super Bowl contenders, but such a transformation probably can't happen overnight anyway. And if the Patriots end up with someone considered to be in that second tier of QB prospects -- like Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy or Quinn Ewers -- then they'll need someone to man the reins for the next year or two to keep the ship moving forward. Don't be shocked if they determine Wilson to be a better option that Mac Jones and/or Bailey Zappe.
(Home team in CAPS; Thursday lines)
The picks column is a bit of a disaster this year. I don't know what to tell you. Some years, you just don't have it. So I'll try to keep it brief.
New York Jets (+7.5) over CLEVELAND
Way too much Cleveland love out there. I get it. Theyr'e better than expected. The Joe Flacco story is fun. But come one now. These are the Cleveland Browns we're talking about. Relax.
DALLAS (-5.5) over Detroit
The Cowboys are 7-0 at home, with an average margin of victory of over 24 points. Good enough for me.
Miami (+3) over BALTIMORE
I get that the Ravens just beat the best team in the NFL and thus might lay claim to now being the best team themselves ... but this is the 2023 NFL season. Nobody's good enough to really dominate. Every up has a down.
New England (+13) over BUFFALO
The Patriots smell, sure. But after that grisly back-to-back blowout loss combo in Weeks 4 and 5, they've been blown out just once in their last seven losses. Trust the defense to capitalize on some Josh Allen turnovers to keep the game close enough.
CHICAGO (-3) over Atlanta
Here's a football game. It will feature 22 players on the field for all plays. Some people will attend the game. Then it will end.
HOUSTON (-5) over Tennessee
As someone who watches quarterbacks around the NFL every week, I sure do hope C.J. Stroud can resume his stellar rookie season. The NFL really needs him. (Could we get AI versions of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning to come back somehow? Just a new idea I got right now. Pretty good one, if you ask me.)
Las Vegas (+3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
A really fascinating situation in Vegas is playing out. We know they didn't let a strong finish for Rich Bisaccia sway them in elevating him from interim head coach to real head coach a couple of years ago, and now they're facing a similar quandary with Antonio Pierce. And if they finish their season with wins at Indy and home against Stidham and the Broncos (both very winnable games), the Raiders could land an improbable playoff spot, too.
Fortunately, Mark Davis is the man making decisions, and he's always on top of things. So he'll probably handle this one the right way.
(Short week, coming off an emotional win in Kansas City would normally have some alarms sounding for me. But the fired-up-team-playing-hard-for-interim-coach aspect negates it in this one, I think.)
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) over Carolina
I'm honestly not sure the Jaguars are good enough to beat anybody anymore. They are that bad. Nevertheless. Pick Carolina in any matchup at your own peril.
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
PHILADELPHIA (-10.5) over Arizona
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over New Orleans
San Francisco (-13) over WASHINGTON
SEATTLE (-3.5) over Pittsburgh
And that's all I've got to say about that!
Cincinnati (+7) over KANSAS CITY
This one's less about my belief in the Bengals as much as it is my disbelief in what's going on in Kansas City. That offense looks so lost. Patrick Mahomes takes a snap, stands there for a few seconds hoping something good happens, then takes off running because he doesn't trust any of his receivers. Even Travis Kelce is good for a drop per week. Wild times.
DENVER (-3.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
This is a tough one. I would stay away from this one unless you're a real adrenaline junkie. Even then. Just don't. Come on.
MINNESOTA (-2) over Green Bay
As a general rule of thumb, I don't pick teams that almost blow games against the 2023 Panthers. There's a residual stench on that team for weeks.
Last week: 8-8
Season: 109-121-8
