Hurley's Picks: Bucs, Packers, Bills on Overrated Watch ahead of Week 1
BOSTON -- It's the start of a new season. Some people see that as an opportunity for boundless optimism.
Those people are weirdos.
While it's fun to get carried away with all sorts of wonderful possibilities, the reality of football -- and life, sadly -- is that bad things are pretty much always more likely to happen.
Hm. Kind of a dark way to head into a season.
Nevertheless.
As it relates to the 2022 NFL season, there are obviously some rather high expectations being placed on players and teams all over the league. Much of that is, of course, warranted. Some of it's a bit misguided. Fortunately, a true visionary is here to cut through all the muck and find where some hype has grown a little out of control.
Ado: over. Time for a look at Overrated Watch entering the season.
Buffalo Bills
People talk about this team's playoff loss as if some act of God came out of nowhere to destroy them. When in fact ... bad coaching in some critical moments sunk them.
Their defense with 13 seconds left in regulation was atrocious. A fireable offense. Then in overtime they ended up having Matt Milano in man coverage against Travis Kelce in the red zone. It's so crazy that that didn't work out for them. Having the NFL's No. 1 defense doesn't mean much when you ... go ahead and do that.
Throw in the fact that they are, still, the Buffalo Bills, and they just should not be Super Bowl favorites. Curses may not be real, but, well, maybe they are?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The thing that's always made Tom Brady unstoppably great is that he's been psychotically obsessed with winning football games. Perhaps he'll turn that switch back on when the season begins, but he's been more interested in hawking underwear and NFTs this summer than football.
There are other concerns. Speaking of end-of-postseason defensive failures, Todd Bowles left a safety one-on-one against Cooper Kupp to kick away an incredible comeback against the eventual Super Bowl-champion Rams. Bowles is now the head coach, a position he's held twice before, posting a 26-41 record. Ryan Jensen is also out with no real known return date, and Brady has never looked worse in his career than he has in years with a questionable interior offensive line.
Bucs at +700 (shortest odds in the NFC) feels like a play at Brady's star power more than anything.
Green Bay Packers
We know Aaron Rodgers can do a lot with a little ... but we're about to see that theory pushed to the extreme. The Packers' depth chart at receiver is ... not good.
Just like last year, when Rodgers was the MVP (should have been Brady's trophy but that's neither here nor there), the Packers will be good enough to be ... good enough.
Los Angeles Rams
We obviously can't doubt the Rams or Sean McVay or Matthew Stafford or Aaron Donald or anyone else on that team anymore. Championships have a way of making that happen.
But can that team repeat? Get all the way out of here.
Even the best championship teams from the past two decades failed to repeat. The mighty '06 Colts? They lost at home in their lone playoff game the next year. The Legion of Boom Seahawks actually made it back to the Super Bowl in 2014, but, ah, well, you know. The Patriots made it back to the Super Bowl a year after their 28-3 comeback, but they decided to let Nick Foles throw for 6,000 yards in a single night for some reason. Hey, and the Chiefs made it back to the Super Bowl a year after winning it all, but they got thoroughly blown out by Brady and the Bucs in the least competitive Super Bowl since the Seahawks destroyed Peyton Manning's Broncos.
Point is, nobody can be sure what kind of teamwide mental makeup is required to win back-to-back Super Bowls. Because nobody seems to have it.
Los Angeles Chargers
I actually like the Chargers. Who wouldn't? But people talk about that them as if they didn't go 1-3 in the final four weeks of last season while losing the funniest Week 18 Sunday Night Football game of all time to end the year. They went 5-7 after their hot start, when some people were waxing poetic about the genius of Brandon Staley.
Every season, there's some team that missed the playoff a year prior that goes on a deep playoff run. The Chargers seem to be the hot pick for that. That late-season loss to the Texans and the aforementioned Week 18 game where they managed to screw up a tie ought to caution against believing in that.
So there you have it. Everybody is overrated. Deal with it.
That was fun.
Let's make picks.
On a personal note, I'm coming off my best season ever. I was 152-119-1 against the spread in the regular season and 8-5 in the playoffs. Pretty good! Let's be better!
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
LOS ANGELES (+2.5) over Buffalo
I'll never dislike the defending champs as a home dog on a Thursday night season opener. Even if the defending champs are going up against the consensus best team ever assembled.
New Orleans (-5.5) over ATLANTA
I agonized over this pick much more than I should have. There's just something about the rosy picture of the Saints' operation that's left me leery this summer. But the Falcons are not ... good ... at football. Sadly.
CHICAGO (+7) over San Francisco
It's admittedly a bit of a soft landing for Trey Lance in his first start as THE guy at quarterback. He started twice last year -- playing poorly in a loss to Arizona while playing markedly better in a win over the Texans -- but it's a different pressure on the second-year QB entirely right now.
The 49ers should be good enough to win. But the points aren't a bad play here.
CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Pittsburgh
I was tempted to put the Bengals on Overrated Watch, mostly because they're the Bengals. Good things don't last in Cincinnati. A 30-year playoff win drought ends and we're supposed to just pencil them back into the AFC title game? Seems a bit much.
But the reality is it's impossible to dislike the offseason they had. Their offensive line was a nightmare; they fixed it. Their secondary was exposed in the Super Bowl; they used their top picks on defensive backs.
Credit where it's due. The Bengals organization appears to be functioning at a high level.
I've never said that before.
(The Steelers also haven't won a playoff game since 2016. Will people talk about that at some point?)
Philadelphia (-4) over DETROIT
Don't pick the Hard Knocks team. They're not as good as you think. Just because they were fun and likeable on the TV show does not mean they will win football games. Don't pick the Hard Knocks team. They're not as good as you think. Just because they were fun and likeable on the TV show does not mean they will win football games. Don't pick the Hard Knocks team. They're not as good as you think.
Sorry. Had to talk to myself for a moment there.
MIAMI (-3.5) over New England
There's reason enough to like the Dolphins over the Patriots on paper. Add in the insane voodoo that Miami has over Bill Belichick's team for whatever reason (the Patriots are 2-7 in Miami since 2013) and there's not too much to think about.
Sure, this game features one of the largest disparities in head coaching wins in the history of the league ... but at least the coaches coaching offense in Miami have spent the bulk of their careers coaching offense. That's a factor right there.
Baltimore (-7) over NEW YORK JETS
I was feeling good about the Jets. What a fun draft they had. Robert Saleh in year two. Surely Zach Wilson will be better.
Ah. But the Jetsiness comes for us all. Mekhi Becton got hurt. Zach Wilson got hurt. We have a few weeks of Flacco coming. What a waste of time this will be. Sad.
Jacksonville (+2.5) over WASHINGTON
HEY SPEAKING OF A WASTE OF TIME.
Cleveland (+1.5) over CAROLINA
Everyone has kind of turned off the Cleveland Browns until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension. But what if, even without Watson, the Browns are ... fine?
They certainly may be more fine than the Carolina Panthers.
Indianapolis (-7) over HOUSTON
The Texans ranked 31st in run defense last year. Figures to be an issue this week. They've got a new head coach and all of that but ... Jonathan Taylor: Kind of good.
MINNESOTA (+1.5) over Green Bay
Vikings win.
(I wrote about the Packers already, you know.)
TENNESSEE (-5.5) over New York Giants
I do quite like the Brian Daboll hiring. I think. And not just because it incidentally ignited the Brian Flores lawsuit.
But changing an organization that's been buried that deep, with a quarterback who more than likely is not up to the task ... that takes a while. This year will be considered a flush. We'll evaluate starting next year.
Kansas City (-6) over ARIZONA
I know things change. Players move. The Tyreek Hills leave. But as a general point of practice, I don't like to pick against Patrick Mahomes when the spread is in single digits. It's just a good way to live. A solid guideline. A calming fallback.
(I also will have trouble moving on from our last glimpse of the Arizona Cardinals. It was not good, folks. Not good at all.)
Las Vegas (+3.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
I have no guarantees that Josh McDaniels' second go-round as a head coach will be successful ... but I have to imagine he's been game-planning his first game back as a head coach for years. Literal years. Should be a fun one for him and the Raiders in a "road game" that probably won't feel like one.
DALLAS (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
I don't love this pick, because I generally like to pick Tom Brady to win his football games, especially when Mike McCarthy is roaming the other sideline (without the aid of Aaron Rodgers saving him on the field).
But I also developed this theory that Tom Brady -- whose sleep habits are, objectively, those of a weirdo -- is bad at night now.
Crazy? You tell me.
Last year, in games in the early Sunday window, Brady had a 109.7 passer rating, with 19 touchdowns and five interceptions.
In the late afternoon window, he had a 112.0 rating, with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. That's his sweet spot, man.
But in night games? Brady played five of them, and his passer rating was 83.7. He threw eight touchdowns and five picks.
That was a continuation from 2020. That year -- his first in Tampa -- his passer rating was 118.3 in the early window, 105.4 in the late afternoon window, and 73.9 (!!!) at night.
Tom Brady: Officially too old to be great at night. (He had to drop off somewhere, right?)
Denver (-6.5) over SEATTLE
I always leave open the possibility that I'm wrong ... but I do wish the Seahawks were a more legitimate opponent for this, the return of Russell Wilson to his homeland. It would be great if we had some high-profile quarterback matchup, or a reincarnation of the Legion of Boom, or really anything outside of crowd noise that would lend you to believe this game will be particularly interesting.
It's hard to get a gauge on the exact ceiling of the Broncos this year, but it does feel like they'll have a smooth runway to get the plane off the ground in Week 1.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
