Hurley's Picks: Bills Are A Team To Be Reckoned With, While Seahawks Face Imminent Doom
BOSTON (CBS) -- So, here we are again. Despite the NFL doing everything in its power to drive fans away, we are right here, frothing at the mouth for the start of the football season.
Call it what you will -- a sickness, an addiction, a case of us all simply being losers -- but together we are embarking on a four-month stretch where we carve out our place on our sofas so that we may camp out for 10 hours every Sunday. We'll be locked in on Monday nights, and Thursday nights too, even though we know those games are horrifically, historically terrible.
We know, also, that the league is run by unfair, borderline incompetent folks, as evidenced by the latest serving of humble pie dished out by a federal judge. And we know that a whole firestorm awaits us this fall as publicity for the "Concussion" movie grows and grows.
But we also know, albeit begrudgingly, that the NFL will always win. Look no further than the ratings for the Hall of Fame game this summer, or the ratings for preseason replays at midnight on the NFL Network for proof of that reality. These games are all meaningless (beyond meaningless, really) and yet they resemble football closely enough that people watch by the millions.
We can shout and scream and say all sorts of things, but none of it will matter, because we'll keep coming back.
Now, that could be interpreted as a depressing statement, but remember, we're all here because we actually like football. And thankfully -- mercifully -- after perhaps the most obnoxious offseason in the history of any professional sport, it is time once again for football. Real, live football.
It's OK for us to admit we're excited. It's who we are.
Let's make some picks.
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Pittsburgh
There are X's and O's breakdowns, and there are arguments that can be made based solely on the quality of the two football teams involved in any game.
But then there are moments that defy rational explanation, times when it's clear that all of those intangible emotions work together to provide an outcome that might never be the case outside of that vacuum.
And that's simply the case when an NFL team opens the season after raising a Super Bowl banner. It's quite absurd:
2014: Seattle 36, Green Bay 16
2013: (The Ravens didn't open at home because the Orioles didn't feel like sharing the city.)
2012: New York Giants 17, Dallas 24
2011: Green Bay 42, New Orleans 34
2010: New Orleans 14, Minnesota 9
2009: Pittsburgh 13, Tennessee 10
2008: New York Giants 16, Washington 7
2007: Indianapolis 41, New Orleans 10
2006: Pittsburgh 28, Miami 17
2005: New England 30, Oakland 20
2004: New England 27, Indianapolis 24
That's nine out of 10 games where the Super Bowl banner-raising team beat their opponent, and despite some close contests, the average margin of victory comes out to 11 points. There's clearly something in the atmosphere of those stadiums that make it very hard for the home team to lose.
Add in the insane level the Gillette Stadium crowd will reach upon seeing their hero take the field after defeating Roger Goodell in court, then factor in the rage factor after Spygate was unnecessarily drummed up and brought to the forefront by ESPN this week, and good golly, Miss Molly, the Patriots might win by one thousand points. A full thousand.
BUFFALO (+2.5) over Indianapolis
As a reminder, the Bills beat Aaron Rodgers last December, and they now have Rex Ryan running their defense. They will present trouble for teams all season long. Granted, their quarterback is Tyrod Taylor, but the Colts did absolutely nothing to patch up their putrid run defense in the offseason. Don't be surprised when the Bills start 1-0 and the Colts fall to 0-1.
Green Bay (-6.5) over CHICAGO
I'm not sure it's entirely worth the people of Chicago's time to have the Bears participate in this NFL season, especially after they ended last season on a five-game losing streak. But hey, more power to them.
Seattle (-4) over ST. LOUIS
To be clear, I do believe the Seahawks are in for a massive disappointment this year. They can say all the right things, but let's be honest: There is no getting over what happened to them on Feb. 1, 2015. There is just no way to mentally overcome the pain that comes from essentially winning the Super Bowl but then having it snatched away on a foolish play call that will go down as one of the worst of all time.
Russell Wilson may have taken his teammates to Hawaii for an airing of grievances, but none of those players can admit that one cannot simply get over a Super Bowl loss like that one, especially not after just a few months.
Oh, and good luck to Darrell Bevell and Pete Carroll in ever having their players' complete trust. From the SI story:
"Players who believed that Seattle's coaches opted to pass -- instead of handing off to Marshawn Lynch -- to make Wilson the Super Bowl hero said so. Those who felt some teammates had not taken responsibility for what happened said as much."
It's such a wonderful environment that Kam Chancellor, perhaps the best safety in football, would rather play Tiddlywinks in his home than play football for the Seahawks at this current moment.
Should be a fun season in the Pacific Northwest!
All that being said ... they can beat the Rams. I know the Rams won last year. I know, I know. But they did it with trick plays. Those work once. They won't work again.
And frankly, any time the Seahawks line up from the 1-yard line, hand the ball to Marshawk Lynch and score a touchdown, it's sure to cut like a knife into the heart of any Seattle fan watching on TV. That's going to be tough for the twelves.
Cleveland (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
All that stuff I said earlier about our addiction to football and how we all can't wait to watch it and all of that stuff? Yeah, that does not apply to this game. Don't watch this game, people. Do not watch this game.
(I know nothing about Todd Bowles, by the way. Never before has a more anonymous head coach run a team in such a large media market in the United States. I know he led the Cardinals' defense and had a bunch of NFL jobs before that, but I know literally nothing about the man. I've yet to hear him speak, and I've done nothing to actively avoid doing so. At the same time, I've expended zero effort to learn about him. The level to which I do not have any interest in this man fascinates me. I am fascinated by my lack of fascination.)
Miami (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Have an offseason, Redskins! Have. An. Offseason.
Carolina (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
I live by very few rules in life, but one is this: Don't pick Jacksonville when the opponent only needs to cover three points. I don't care if the Jaguars are at home or if the game is played on Mars. Don't pick Jacksonville.
But I will say this -- I respect the hell out of this guy:
And also, the Jaguars have a pool in their home stadium, and nobody can take that away from them.
I'm sure it's a very nice pool. But we're going to go ahead and not pick the Jaguars.
HOUSTON (-1) over Kansas City
Every year, you have to be wary to not fall for Hard Knocks syndrome, where you irrationally believe (or doubt) a team because it's the one team you truly know inside and out. So while it'd be easy to trust that Bill O'Brien is steering the ship in the right direction, or that J.J. Watt/Jadeveon Clowney/Vince Wilfork are going to create a number of headaches for a whole lot of teams, it's important to remember that with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and with Arian Foster injured, the team has a ceiling.
But another tenet of mine comes into play here, and that is simply this: Alex Smith stinks. If you've ever read one of my picks columns, you've read those three words too many times to count. But it's true.
So I have no doubt that the Texans will start this season on the right foot. My only question is ... will they bring back Smash Mouth?
ARIZONA (-2.5) over New Orleans
The Saints sneaky stunk last year, and that was one of the more surprising/more subtle storylines of the season. We all just see Drew Brees and figure they're good for at least 10 wins and a playoff berth, but they were just bad last year.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have got themselves some mojo. Sure, everything they built last year kind of collapsed when they kept losing quarterbacks and ended up starting Ryan Lindley in their playoff game. But they made enough positive progress that it's safe to believe they'll be a playoff team again this year.
Detroit (+3) over SAN DIEGO
I'd be lying if I said this pick wasn't influenced by the fact that I've been a bit favorite-heavy thus far. But at least I'm being honest here. The fact is that nooooboooody knows what will happen with this year's NFL. There will be surprise failures, there will be surprise successes, and we can't say for sure right now which teams will fill out those roles. We have some ideas, but nobody's going 32-for-32 with their predictions.
I'm not going to lie to you and pretend that I can see exactly how the next four months will play out. Instead, I will show you this video of a sheep that really needs a throat lozenge.
You're welcome.
Baltimore (+4.5) over DENVER
I've heard Boomer Esiason say multiple times this week -- multiple times! -- that the Broncos' adding Wade Phillips to run their defense was an underrated move of the offseason. I've also heard numerous people -- numerous -- try to convince me that Gary Kubiak is somehow going to make the Broncos a better team. And I just laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh.
OAKLAND (+3.5) over Cincinnati
I feel like I'm going to come to regret this one. I really do. But hell, I'm going to say it.
I'm high on the Oakland Raiders right now.
OK, OK, OK, not "high" high, but higher than usual for Oakland. Amari Cooper ... Khalil Mack ... these are game-changing type players. And Derek Carr was fine last season. He was fine, I tell you!
(When I look back at these Week 1 picks at the end of the year, I fully accept that this entry may be the most comical. But I'm a risk-taker, baby!)
Tennessee (+3) over TAMPA BAY
How did the NFL rig it so that we'd get Mariota vs. Jameis in Week 1? That's wild.
It's juicy, in theory, until you realize that we'll be seeing the two worst NFL teams from 2014 squaring off in muggy, rainy Tampa. Sounds pretty gross. Take the points and avert your eyes.
DALLAS (-6) over New York Giants
It was a catch.
Philadelphia (-3) over ATLANTA
The Eagles are nothing if not intriguing. The Falcons, meanwhile, are just nothing.
Minnesota (-2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
I'm not sure I've ever seen a team go from playing in the Super Bowl to the verge of irrelevance in so short a span. In just two seasons you go from Jim Harbaugh to Jim Tomsula, you lose Patrick Willis and Justin Smith and Aldon Smith and Anthony Davis and Chris Borland (whom you also added during that two-year span), and you go from having a dynamic threat in Colin Kaepernick to having a quarterback whom the rest of the league figured out. It's stunning, really, and kind of sad. I liked those Niners.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
