Hurley's Picks: Aaron Rodgers' Jets are the NFL's most compelling story

BOSTON -- Have you ever spent a summer watching "Hard Knocks"? Surely, if you enjoy football even in the slightest bit, you've spent a summer watching "Hard Knocks."

And so you know, that after spending a month learning the ins and outs of of an organization, you typically come away with one thought: This team is great and has everything needed to dominate the NFL. (You'll often see that team then have an absolutely disastrous season, but that's beside the point.)

Watching the Jets this summer, though, I had quite a different reaction. This was, after all, a Jets team that I believed in. They had rookies of the year on both sides of the ball, they had what I believed to be a real-deal head coach, and they were adding one of the most talented passers in football history to make it all work. How could this not be great?

Yet the more we saw about the Jets ... the more questions that arose.

Does Robert Saleh really have command of the roster the way I always envisioned? Some of those speeches were ... less than inspiring. (Not Jonathan Gannon levels of uninspiring, no. God no. But still.)

Is the assistant coach group satisfactory? Nathaniel Hackett is ... a bit strange. Jeff Ulbrich appears to be a bit hot-headed. Zach Azzanni seems to be less of a receivers coach than Randall Cobb. How's this all going to work?

Did they really just disgrace the legacy of "The Sopranos" by using the theme song for a stupid little cut scene about the Jets?!

And, bigger than anything else, what's Aaron Rodgers' deal? We've seen hours upon hours from this guy over the past several years, and we don't seem any closer to grasping ... his entire deal. And while he certainly seems happy and free to be with the Jets, we also saw him use Cobb to deliver a message to all of the receivers that they need to stop making little mistakes. That's distinctly a Green Bay Aaron kind of move.

The peek behind the curtain has been thought-provoking at the very least, and it's all worked to make the Jets an even more compelling story this season. In fact, they just might be the most compelling story across the league.

Think about it: When was the last time the Jets had real expectations placed upon them before a season? Expectations to make a postseason run, expectations to contend for a Super Bowl, expectations to outperform Bill Belichick's team, expectations to win at a consistent level. The answer is ... unclear. 

Yes, the franchise had those two years with consecutive AFC title game appearances. There were some expectations on those teams. But they were also the first two seasons with Rex Ryan at the helm. If anything, those seasons established expectations on future seasons -- expectations which were never fulfilled. (The Jets didn't make the playoffs in Ryan's next and final three seasons in New York.)

You'd probably have to go back to the Bill Parcells era to find comparable expectations for the Jets. But even then, the late-30s Vinny Testaverde/young Chad Pennington quarterback room didn't quite carry the same weight that Aaron Rodgers does right now.

And what makes this year so captivating is that for one, it feels like a short-term deal. Rodgers turns 40 in December, and even though Tom Brady made it look easy, playing tackle football after age 40 is extremely difficult. Rodgers may not be the exception to that rule.

Secondly, this year could go in any direction for the Jets, and none would be surprising. 

If the Jets fulfill the loftiest of expectations and make the Super Bowl, it won't be surprising.

If the Jets absolutely faceplant and fall apart before Halloween, it will shock nobody.

Anything and everything in between is on the table. And for that reason, we will be watching -- all season long.

I think that's enough ado. More than enough ado, even. Let's make picks.

(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)

Detroit (+4.5) over KANSAS CITY
It's a little too hip to lean on Detroit here. Feels like everyone is riding the Lions hype train off the relative success of last year.

But ... is this not a DAN CAMPBELL kind of night? Super Bowl celebration, national TV, season opener, all of that. It doesn't take a high degree of imagination to picture that man getting his locker room fired up to GO IN THERE AND PUNCH 'EM IN THE MOUTH.

That, plus the Travis Kelce knee thing, plus the questionable Chiefs' receiving corps, plusssss the Lions game-planning all spring and summer for this moment? It's a borderline comfortable pick. (It was more comfortable if you got it at 6.5, before the Kelce news.)

ATLANTA (-3.5) over Carolina
Not entirely enthralled with the NFC South this year. That division figures to cause some issues this year. Bad vibes from jump street. But for the sake of this game, I'm fine betting against a rookie QB making his debut on the road (albeit in a stadium that can be silent if the home team stinks.) 

BALTIMORE (-10) over Houston
Admittedly, it's going to take some mental adjustments to take the Texans seriously again. Coming off the Bill O'Brien/Romeo Crennel/David Culley/Lovie Smith stretch where the team went 11-38-1 over the past three years, it'll take me a while to wrap my head around a potentially stable situation under DeMeco Ryans. And while a 10-spot for Week 1 makes me squirmy, the aforementioned rookie-QB-on-the-road corollary helps soothe the nerves.

CLEVELAND (+2.5) over Cincinnati
Call me a worry wart, if you'd like. Go ahead. Say it. Say it!

But with my last visual of Joe Burrow being him going down in a heap this summer, I'm hesitant to believe the Bengals are ready to hit the ground at full speed. Of course, if anyone could make me look stupid on that worry, it's Burrow. But Cleveland as a home dog against a potentially disconnected Bengals offense feels like an OK play.

Jacksonville (-5) over INDIANAPOLIS
Who's gotten more love this summer: The "sleeper" Jags or Anthony Richardson? It's a close race.

Both cases might be evidence of some over-eager football fans hoping for greatness. Or, who knows, maybe everybody is right.

But, well, if it wasn't a theme already, it's a theme now. We're not trusting the rookie QBs this week.

MINNESOTA (-6) over Tampa Bay
I think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to be a bad, bad football team this year.

Tennessee (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
You know, the safest thing I could do here is just go with favorites across the board, close my eyes, hope for an 8-8 week, then pick things back up in Week 2 with some real data in my back pocket. But where is the fun in that? Why even get out of bed in the morning if you're not going to take Mike Vrabel's team as road dogs in Week 1? Seriously.

San Francisco (-2) over PITTSBURGH
I don't like this budding Brock Purdy era. Feels risky. BUT! For as long as Christian McCaffrey is healthy, I've got to trust in the Niners. I know these opportunities are fleeting, so I don't want to let one slip by.

WASHINGTON (-7) over Arizona

Green Bay (+1) over CHICAGO
Packers ... Bears ... Packers ... Bears. Tough one.

On the one hand, we're looking at a Packers team that doesn't have Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre as a Week 1 starter for the first time in 55 years. (Rough estimate.) So it's hard to get a complete feel for the team.

Then there's Chicago, which seems to have some thoughtful leadership at the top of the organization. But we're also talking about a team that, despite having a quarterback who made Twitter explode once or twice every Sunday, ended the year on a 10-game losing streak.

Is this the week that the Bears beat the Packers for the first time in five years and the second time in eight years? I don't know! But probably not!

DENVER (-4) over Las Vegas
What if Sean Payton doesn't do a good job in Denver? Just ... what if? Something to think about.

Miami (+3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
I think a lot of people assume things about both teams. In the end, both of them might underperform.

For now, I don't hate riding with Miami at full speed to start the year. Should be a fun game.

Philadelphia (-4) over NEW ENGLAND
There's been this weird phenomenon all summer where tons of people have convinced themselves that the Patriots are going to win this game. If I'm being honest, the curse has gripped me, personally, as well.

It makes sense, because we watched Bill Belichick-coached teams kick so many rear ends over the years that we're conditioned to expect it to keep happening. But we must recondition our minds! The Patriots don't beat good teams anymore. Not usually, anyway.

Look at the Patriots' strength of victory (combined winning percentage of teams they've beaten) since 2020: .429, .394, .415. They'll pull off a random upset from time to time -- Cam Newton vs. the Ravens comes to mind, or the tornado-wind game in Buffalo -- but by and large, they win and lose when they're supposed to.

And in this one, even with Tom Brady in the building, they're not supposed to win.

SEATTLE (-5.5) over Los Angeles Rams
It'll be interesting to see if the Rams end up being as bad as everybody expects. It will be equally interesting to see if Geno Smith can put together a solid season of quarterbacking for just the second time in his NFL career.

NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) over Dallas
A couple of picks ago, I talked about the need to recondition our brains. Well, full disclosure, I am not doing that with the Giants.

In Brian Daboll's first season, the Giants were absolute monsters at covering the spread. The team went 13-4 against the spread. Thirteen-and-freaking-four! It got so absurd that I even took them at plus-8 in the playoffs against the Eagles. I knew they couldn't cover that spread, they just weren't good enough, but dang it, they had taken me so far, I owed it to them to try.

So yeah, this may be me living in the past. It may be inadvisable. But that ride last year was majestic. I'd love to see a repeat.

NEW YORK JETS (+2.5) over Buffalo
I don't necessarily believe this deep in my soul, but I am beholden to the facts. And those facts show that the Jets gave Josh Allen fits as a passer last year. Allen completed just 55.7% of his passes with one touchdown and two picks in the two games vs. the Jets. He averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and posted a grisly 64.4 passer rating.

Now, Allen did run like a wild banshee in those games (86 yards and two touchdowns in one game, 47 yards and one touchdown in the other), but Jets had Mike White and Zach Wilson at quarterback .. and STILL won one game and lost the other by one possession.

Plus, as has been made perfectly clear, the Jets are going to be every football fan's favorite soap opera this year. And what would a hit show be without an explosive season premiere?

Last year: 132-144-8

You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.