Tropical Low Makes Close Pass Tuesday, Tropical Air to Follow
Nice to see the sun today as highs climbed to 80-85 inland with 70's at the coast. High pressure is pulling off the coast with a more southerly flow for the overnight. Clear skies to start will give way to a lowering of clouds after midnight. These clouds will be in place Tuesday morning, but will try to break inland for some partial morning sunshine away from the coast. It should be brighter inland Tuesday, but clouds at the coast with light SE winds will keep temps in the mid 70's coast and 70's near 80 inland. Sun will be brightest across the north with skies eventually turning mostly cloudy.
Clouds streaming north around the backside of a high are part of an area of low pressure currently off the coast of the Carolinas. It does not look like much now, but this low will become stronger as it pushes up the coast and will take a very close track to the benchmark near Nantucket tomorrow night. This low has the look of a tropical depression with it's warm core and strengthening with it's track northward. The strongest winds will remain on the east side of the low, so most of the coast will be spared much in the way of any wind from this hybrid low...but it will come with a period of some rain and maybe some heavy downpours. Seas upto 4-8 feet offshore will build with the approaching low so mariners should be aware. Upper level winds will help to steer most of the energy from this low far enough off the coast that most of New England will remain dry Tuesday, but Cape Cod will turn rainy by late afternoon into the evening. Showers may even hug the coast tomorrow night before this low quickly pulls away. Cape Cod will see the heaviest of the rain with the potential for .50-1" in any heavy rains that may develop...track dependent. Some of this rain may even push into Plymouth county.
By Wednesday morning, this low is pulling away, cloudy skies with breaks of AM sun will fade to increasing PM clouds with an approaching cold front Wednesday which could trigger a few more scattered showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon into evening. Wednesday may end up being on of the better surfing days we have seen in a while. Highs will still hover near 80 through the midweek with a more humid feel developing. This front will wash out or stall over us Thursday and could act as just enough of a trigger to fire up another brief PM T'storm...no biggie. Weather looks very warm, muggy but quiet heading towards the weekend
The active and unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend with an approaching warm front and cold front. The warm front may trigger and afternoon storm or two Saturday, with the cold front towards New England Sunday. This will likley trigger a few more afternoon showers or thunderstoms inland away from the coast. It may take until Monday for this to completely push through. By this time a very warm and humid feel will be in place with temps well inot the 80's. All the while, any storms that does pop up will have enough moisture to work with to make for some heavy downpours. I realize this all may sound like a lot...but it is not. It is not picture perfect weather by any means but there are plenty of dry moments along the way.
You may be wondering what the weather will be like for the Pan Mass Challenge? I would not worry too much about it the way it looks right now. A few pop up showers Saturday are possible. Sunday's ride on the Cape looks dry, muggy and warm with temps in the Lwr 80's. Of course, in all reality...it is still to far away to have any real confidence...but the overall idea should stand.
