Hurley: Setting Reasonable Home Run Expectations For Travis Shaw In 2016
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- It's not often that a largely unheralded prospect with a .242 Triple-A batting average gets looked upon as a potential savior in a big market like Boston, but that's kind of what's taking place with the Red Sox at the moment.
To be fair, in the wake of Travis Shaw getting named the starting third baseman over Pablo Sandoval, nobody has thrust massive expectations on the 25-year-old Shaw. He's not expected to mash 50 homers and contend for the AL MVP. He's really just expected to ... not be Pablo Sandoval. And he can do that.
Yet, Shaw's eye-opening performance in the 2015 season is unquestionably impacting the perception of the player. In just 65 games and 226 at-bats in the big leagues, Shaw managed to crank out 13 homers and 10 doubles while building an impressive .813 OPS to go with his .270 batting average. By comparison, in more than twice as many at-bats, Sandoval hit just 10 home runs and 25 doubles for a .658 OPS and .245 average, while also making far too many errors in the field.
Considering Sandoval showed up to camp looking the exact same as he did last year (if not, bigger), there never was any reason to believe he was poised for a bounceback season in Boston. And so, the decision to start Shaw makes sense. He seems like a baseball player; at this moment in time, Sandoval does not.
Yet in setting expectations, there is always the danger of taking a small sample size and extrapolating it out over the course of a full season. If one were to take Shaw's 2015 numbers and project 2016 stats, it would dictate that Shaw should hit about 35 home runs and drive in about 100 runs, all while maintaining a .270 average, which last year would have tied him with Evan Longoria for fifth-best among AL third basemen.
Those expectations seem high.
To help determine just how fair or unfair such a forecast may be, I've decided to dive into the situations in which Shaw hit those dingers last year. This won't jibe with analytics crews, but I've long believed that it's simply easier for a player to put up fatter stats for a last-place team -- especially in the final months of a baseball season when nothing is on the line. There's no pressure. Games can get out of hand on the scoreboard. Opposing pitchers aren't necessarily locked in, nor are they necessarily an opponent's best pitcher. Hitting remains hard, but in such situations, on a scale of Batting Practice-To-Facing Aroldis Chapman In The Ninth, the degree of difficulty does slide down just a bit toward the easier end. (How else can we explain Will Middlebrooks' 2012 performance for Bobby Valentine's crew?)
So, to determine just how much the Middlebrooks Factor played into Shaw's success in 2015, I'm going to look at each of his home runs and assess its difficulty based on these factors:
Situation: Was it an 8-2 game with one runner on base in the sixth inning, or was it 3-3 in the eighth?
Pitcher: Was it a front-line starter, a mop-up guy, or someone in between?
Pitch: Was it a great piece of hitting, or did the pitcher serve up a meatball?
It's far from scientific, obviously, but it should prove informative. In honor of a man who's hit too many home runs in pressure situations to count, all taters will be graded on a scale of one to five heads of David Ortiz. Let's go!
Home Run No. 1: Aug. 1, 2015 vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The situation: Bottom third, Red Sox leading 5-0, bases empty
The Pitcher: LHP Matt Moore (5.43 ERA, 1.540 WHIP)
The Pitch: Inside fastball
Notes: This came as part of Shaw's real breakout day, when he went 4-for-4 with two homers, a double, three RBIs, and a walk. It was a nice day. But the game situation of this first homer and the putridity of the pitcher (Moore went 3-4 with a 5.43 ERA in 2015) don't help Shaw's cause. Still, first big league homer, and it was crushed to right field at Fenway, so he gets a little extra boost on the scoreboard to kick things off. Three Papis!
Home Run No. 2: Aug 1. vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Situation: Bottom eighth, Red Sox leading 9-6, one runner on
The Pitcher: RHP Kirby Yates (7.97 ERA, 1.475 WHIP)
The Pitch: High fastball over the middle of the plate
Notes: While the situation technically might have been more tense, the pitcher and the pitch absolutely stunk. Yates rocked a 7.97 ERA in his 20 big-league appearances last year, giving up a nearly impossible 10 home runs over 20.1 innings pitched. He stunk in Triple-A, too, putting up a 5.33 ERA for Durham. This is where Yates left a 93 mph heater for Shaw:
Yuck.
You can watch both of the Aug. 1 home runs below, but this one gets a grade of 1 out of 5 Papis.
Home Run No. 3: Aug. 14 vs. Seattle Mariners
The Situation: Bottom third, 5-1 Red Sox, one runner on base
The Pitcher: LHP Mike Montgomery (4-6, 4.60 ERA, 11 HRs allowed in 90 IP)
The Pitch: 90 mph over the fat of the plate
Notes: Batting practice.
One Papi for you!
Home Run No. 4: Aug. 14 vs. Seattle Mariners
The Situation: Bottom eighth, 14-1 Red Sox, bases empty
The Pitcher: LHP Rob Rasmussen (9.98 ERA over 15.1 MLB innings)
The Pitch: 92 mph, at the belt, middle of the plate.
Notes: Yeah, no.
The second dinger of the night came as part of another big game for Shaw, who went 3-for-5 that night.
If the scale accounted for zero Papis, this would qualify as zero. Alas, it's a one. (You can watch homers three and four here.)
Home Run No. 5: Aug. 17 vs. Cleveland Indians
The Situation: Bottom third, 0-0, bases empty
The Pitcher: RHP Danny Salazar (3.45 ERA, 1.130 WHIP)
The Pitch: Breaking ball on bottom part of strike zone, but over the middle of the plate
Notes: Hey now! That's a legitimate situation and a legitimate pitcher, as Salazar posted a 3.45 ERA over 30 starts last year. This was the only run he allowed over seven innings in this game. Salazar did serve up 23 homers, which doesn't exactly put Shaw in exclusive company, but still, it counts.
The pitch itself wasn't great, as it caught way too much of the plate, but credit goes to Shaw for going down and getting it. That's not an easy one to send 400 feet into right field. That's three Papis!
Home Run No. 6: Aug. 19 vs. Cleveland Indians
The Situation: Bottom second, 1-0 Red Sox, bases empty
The Pitcher: RHP Corey Kluber (3.49 ERA in 32 starts/222 innings)
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, below the zone, fat of the plate
Notes: That's another legitimate situation and legitimate pitcher, as Kluber was the reigning Cy Young award winner last year. Granted, he led the league with 16 losses and he did give up 22 homers, but his other stats were good. Even the pitch itself wasn't bad, as it was low enough that it probably shouldn't have resulted in a home run. But Shaw went oppo, digging it up and lofting it over the Monster in left-center. Impressive stuff.
We're going four Papis here and we're not looking back.
Home Run No. 7: Aug. 27 at Chicago White Sox
The Situation: Top eighth, 0-0 score, one runner on base
The Pitcher: RHP Nate Jones (3.32 ERA, 0.947 WHIP)
The Pitch: 97 mph down and in, on the black
Notes: This was a nice one. A really nice one. Granted, Jones did give up five homers in just 19 innings last year (likely thanks to that cockamamie delivery where he shows the ball to the batter the entire time), but a 97 mph fastball on the inside edge is still a 97 mph fastball on the inside edge. Jones threw the exact pitch he wanted; Shaw turned on it and destroyed it.
That's what a FIVE PAPI home run looks like right there, folks.
Home Run No. 8: Sept. 7 vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Situation: Bottom eighth, 9-4 Red Sox, one runner on base
The Pitcher: LHP Jeff Francis (6.14 ERA, 1.636 WHIP,
The Pitch: 70 mph middle-middle
Notes: Oh my God.
Jeff! No!
This is legitimately a batting practice homer. Jeff Francis started Game 1 of the 2007 World Series! Granted, he got lit up in Game 1 of the 2007 World Series, but still, what happened?!
Sorry, Travis. It's not your fault.
Home Run No. 9: Sept. 8 vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Situation: Bottom second, 1-0 Blue Jays, bases empty
The Pitcher: RHP R.A. Dickey (3.91 ERA, 25 HRs allowed in 214.1 IP)
The Pitch: 83 mph fastball, middle-middle
Notes: Shaw anticipated a first-pitch fastball from the knuckleballer. He got it. He smashed it.
This was the only run of the day allowed by Dickey, who pitched six innings.
Good approach by Shaw, but, well, it was an 83 mph fastball at the belt that split the plate in half. We'll go two out of five Papis, just for the anticipation, but even that is being generous.
Home Run No. 10: Sept. 12 at Tampa Bay Rays
The Situation: Top seventh, 8-2 Red Sox, one runner on base
The Pitcher: LHP C.J. Riefenhauser (Career 6.30 ERA, 1.550 WHIP in MLB)
The Pitch: 89 mph, outside third, bottom edge of strike zone
Notes: This came in the eighth inning, after David Ortiz launched his 500th homer. The Rays were down big, the game meant nothing, and the drama had been sucked from Tropicana Field (well, as much drama as can possibly exist in that spaceship). It was uninspiring, to say the least. (You can watch it at the end of this video, if you care.)
Two out of five, because while that was an easy pitch to *hit*, it wasn't necessarily an easy one to lift to deep left-center field.
Home Run No. 11: Sept. 15 at Baltimore Orioles
The Situation: Top eighth, 5-4 Orioles, bases empty
The Pitcher: LHP Brian Matusz (2.94 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 5 HRs allowed in 49 IP)
The Pitch: 90 mph middle-middle
Notes: OK, the pitch itself wasn't great by any means, but it was a crucial point in the game, and it was against a pitcher who does not give up very many home runs. Shaw absolutely destroyed it, as center fielder Adam Jones didn't even so much as lightly jog toward the warning track.
Good stuff. FOUR Papis!
Home Run No. 12: Sept. 28 at New York Yankees
The Situation: Top sixth, Yankees leading 2-1, one runner on base
The Pitcher: RHP Ivan Nova (5.07 ERA, 1.404 WHIP, 13 HRs allowed over 94 IP)
The Pitch: 93 mph two-seamer, middle-middle
Credit to coming up big with his team trailing on the road, for sure. But the pitcher stunk (Nova has a 5.65 ERA over the past two seasons and has allowed 19 HRs in just 114.2 IP) and the pitch stunk too. So we have to cap this score at three Papis.
It was also a Little League home run in that short right field in the Bronx. Those barely count. Three is generous.
Worth noting: This was another first-pitch homer. Shaw's guessed right on a few of these so far.
Home Run No. 13: Sept. 30 at New York Yankees
The Situation: 0-0 top first, two runners on base, full count, two outs
The Pitcher: RHP Masahiro Tanaka (3.51 ERA, 0.994 WHIP, 25 HRs over 154 IP)
The Pitch: Two-seamer, low in strike zone, middle of plate
Note: Tanaka had an interesting season, and he allowed the 18th-most HRs in the AL despite pitching just 154 innings. So in that sense, it wasn't a remarkable occasion for Shaw to homer off the Yankees starter.
The pitch wasn't great, per se, but it was a good 3-2 pitch, and it stayed down enough where Tanaka probably didn't expect to see it get turned around and launched about 400 feet to straightaway right field.
I'm feeling this one (you can watch it here) rates between three and four, but I'm feeling generous, so let's go with cuatro.
Conclusions
Of course, this was a subjective experiment, but I have shown my work and you can judge it for yourself. By the end, on a scale of one through five, the average rating for difficulty/impressiveness on Shaw's 13 home runs is ... 2.65. On the whole, it was not the most impressive collection of 13 homers ever hit.
There was one five-Papi rating in there, and there were four rankings of just one Papi. Three of those one-Papi homers came very early in his pro career, when opponents likely didn't really know who he was. Those one-rating dingers will likely be harder to come by in 2016.
The idea here is that in April, when no teams are out of it, the degree of difficulty should theoretically be higher. Plus, with pitchers now having some tape on Shaw, they'll be more in tune with his tendencies now that he's in the starting lineup and has some experiences. They'll seek to exploit some tendencies, and it'll make light a bit more difficult for Shaw. (No more 70 mph layups from Jeff Francis.)
Still, Shaw showed a lot in some of those home runs, particularly the ones that came on low pitches. He displayed a great ability to not only square those up but to loft them plenty high enough to clear the fences, which is indeed a rare skill.
In terms of trends, he hit seven homers vs. righties and six vs. lefties, and that's in only 82 at-bats vs. left-handed pitching. That bodes well for his late-inning homer ability, unless his reverse splits hold true and he ends up facing a lot of righty relievers. He did hit more homers at home (8) compared to on the road (5) in similar ABs (119 at Fenway; 107 on road), for whatever that might be worth. His inferior average on the road (.215) compared to home (.319) has gotten some attention, but the power has translated a bit better on the road.
Overall, while he won't likely be able to sustain his 2015 pace for something like a 35-homer season in 2016, it's not outrageous to pencil him for somewhere in that 20-30 range. He was aided a bit by the level of competition last year, but he showed enough of his own hitting ability to suggest he should be able to crank out plenty of long balls for the Red Sox this season.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
