Time Is On Our Side
The days keep getting longer. The sunset is now later at 6:46 PM. The Sun is higher in the sky and we are retrieving and absorbing more of it's radiation. The sun's angle this time of year is similar to early October. The average high temp is in the mid 40's..by the end of the month will be in the lwr 50's. Time is on our side. We are over the hill in regards to the worst of winter. If only weather played by such a strict set of rules! As we know March in New England, especially after a winter like the one we have had, never goes out easy. It can be a very active and transitional month and so it goes this year.
For now, we are getting a brief taste of what is to come in the very near future. Spring like temps are finally arriving in the Northeast thanks to an upper level ridge in place across the east coast. Low clouds are breaking today, but high to mid level clouds are spreading in aloft. This will make for mostly cloudy skies today with breaks of sunshine possible by midday into the early afternoon. Light southerly winds will help to keep temps mild in the 40's and Lwr 50's. Cooler temps will be at the south facing beaches and along the immediate coast. Best chance of Lwr 50's will be inland where there are a few breaks of sunshine. A quite tranquil Monday with a grey look for the most part.
Clouds will be filling back in tonight with lows holding in the upper 30's to near 40 with light southerly winds. The breeze from the SSW will begin to pick up Tuesday with a potent cold front which will be pushing through during the afternoon-evening. Tuesday will start off dry and cloudy for the AM commute. Temps will be climbing into the Lwr-mid 50's with a balmy breeze developing. Rain will be spreading into western New England by noon time and spreading eastward during the afternoon hours. The could be some enhanced banding on along the front which could lead to some localized heavy downpours leading into the evening hours. I expect most areas to be raining for the evening commute. With about 6-16" of snow still on the ground, any heavier downpours with the melting snow will lead to large puddles forming on the roadways for this commute. I expect about .50-1.5" of rain to fall with this frontal passage. Rain will be winding down later Tuesday night as the front pushes off the coast by midnight Wednesday.
Wednesday will be a transition day, with mild air still holding tight even though the front has passed off the coast. After a mild start in the 30's, temps will spike back up into the Lwr 50's with partly sunny skies and west winds. A second cold front will approach which could trigger a brief shower by sunset, or a snow shower in the NW hills. A deep trough with an upper low will sit over us through Thursday with a cyclonic spin which will make for variably cloudy skies and a hit or mis sprinkle or shower. A more seasonally cool airmass will arrive for Thursday into Friday with breezy NW winds from Canada keeping temps in the 30's to near 40 under partly sunny skies. Overall, a pretty nice end to the week.
A few questions for the weekend. As the Upper low pulls away, a weak shortwave will follow in behind it. This could trigger a few scattered rain or snow showers by Saturday afternoon. The best chance of any snow would be in northern New England, especially in the higher elevations. Meanwhile, the GFS takes this wave further south and has it missing us completely and pulling away Sunday. Either way. A dry Sunday is possible for all the St. Patrick's day festivities and Parades.
After that, the focus would have to be on what our Euro model is showing for next week. It is not something anyone really feels like talking about or mentioning, but it is printing out the potential for another large coastal storm for next week around Tuesday. The Euro this morning has this printing out another foot or more of snow, strong winds at the coast, and rough seas. This storm could come with stronger winds because it should be tracking closer to New England. This morning's run was the second consecutive run showing this storm. It is waaaay to early to have any confidence on how this will eventually play out. We will have to watch to see if the other models start catching on to this solution. What a way to start the week! Again, there is plenty of time between here and now for this to change. It most definitely will. Just letting you know what is on the table as we look ahead. March is never easy.
