The Wheel In the Sky Keeps on Turning
Appropriately, the infamous Journey song is perfectly suited for this weather pattern. The upper low wheel in the sky keeps turning weak lows along a stalled front south Of New England. This morning we are dealing wave #3, after Friday's #1 and Saturday morning's #2. Either way it has be quite a pattern this weekend with temps running about 10 degrees below normal!
Steady rain has filled in across eastern MA for the rest of the morning. It is a chilly raw rain which is not very fun to be outside in with light NE winds and temps in the 50's. This rain is along with a low currently off the coast which will be tracking up into Maine this afternoon. The heaviest rain will occur for the rest of the morning through the early afternoon at the coast. Rain will taper to scattered showers this afternoon across SNE, so at least the rain will not be as steady. After 3 PM...most of the showers should be ending and have shifted north.
The heavy rain will shift into NH and ME this afternoon with heavy downpours and the potential for some embedded thunderstorms as the low will continue to strengthen as it move is land with energy wrapping into the upper low. Most areas at the coast will see about .25-.50" There could be locally heavier amounts farther north in any downpours which occur. Amounts drop of to almost nothing outside of the 495 belt. Meanwhile the Cape is the jackpot for rainfall picking up 1-2" already with an additional half inch or more this morning. Again, look for slow improvement during the afternoon with plenty of clouds.
Clouds will finally start breaking tonight as winds shift to the west behind the departing low across the north. Skies cloudy to Partly cloudy overnight may give us our first glimpse of the Harvest Moon. After a few morning clouds...sunshine will be on the increase Monday with breezy drying west winds with highs near 70.
As the upper low finally pulls away it will be replaced with weak upper level ridging which will allow for a pretty nice start to the week with some warming temperatures back into the lwr-mid 70's. Meanwhile, the upper level flow will still be streaming in up from the Gulf with SW winds will supply more moisture and humidity into the pattern and direct it up the coast. There are some timing issues of when exactly the next batch of showers will arrive. I think it is safe to say, Late Tuesday to Wednesday will be our best chance of showers. We will have to see if the pattern slows down even more to keep clouds through Thursday. With slightly cooler drier air following in behind the departing midweek showers for Thursday Friday.
Forecasting too far out in a pattern like this has proven to be a challenge in terms of timing when or what day it will rain. Even yesterday's forecast was for Sunday was for a drier day that what is actually happening now. Still holding out hope for later today. Still, despite the complexities of the pattern, the NAO is going negative into the first part of October, which will help keep a trough in the east and a return to below normal temps for the 2nd week of October for a good portion of the nation. Some places in the US who had the hottest heat during he summer will be in line for some of the coldest temps of the early cool season. Flakes will soon start to fly across the nation with a renewed significant cold push coming out of Canada in the coming days.
