Hurley: The Night The Tom Brady-Peyton Manning Rivalry Was Really Born
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- For as much as you hear hype surrounding "Manning-Brady XVII" in advance of this Sunday's AFC Championship Game, you hear many folks retort that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are quarterbacks, and they therefore do not face each other.
This statement is both plainly true and partly ignorant.
Yes, obviously, Brady and Manning never square off face-to-face. Each deals only with the other's defense, and through 15 years in the league together, sadly zero games have been decided by a Brady-Manning wrestling match on the 50-yard line. (There's still time to change that, Roger.)
But to say that the characterization of the Brady-Manning matchups is inaccurate is, well ... not accurate.
When the Patriots and Broncos meet, and formerly when the Patriots and Colts met, both quarterbacks were well aware of the moment. They knew that it was no coincidence that just about all of their matchups took place during sweeps season, when TV ratings are of paramount importance to the networks airing the games. Brady and Manning both know their places in football history, and they know how their career stories are intertwined.
To dismiss the hooplah surrounding their matchups by saying "they don't face each other" is to overlook so much.
But admittedly, declaring this upcoming game as the 17th showdown of two historically great quarterbacks is to slightly oversell the situation. Really, it wasn't until one fateful night in January 2007 that the real Brady-Manning rivalry was born.
Prior to that point, Brady was a nearly unparalleled winner, but he was hardly a statistical king. And he was beloved for it. "I'd take the QB who knows how to win a game over the guy who just puts up numbers" was a common refrain heard around New England.
In his first six seasons as a starter, Brady's single-season high for touchdowns was 28, and his highest yardage total was 4,110. He averaged 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns per season. He was a perfectly good quarterback with three Super Bowl titles and two Super Bowl MVPs to his name. Even if he never made significant statistical jumps from that point on, he was on his way to a Hall of Fame career.
Yet during that same span, Manning averaged 4,200 yards and 32 touchdowns per season. He topped 4,000 passing yards in five of the six seasons. He set an NFL record with 49 touchdown passes in 2004. He was named NFL MVP twice. He was in the midst of the most prolific passing stretch in history.
Yet, while Brady was building a 10-1 record as a starter in the postseason, Manning went just 3-3.
Famously, two of those losses came against the Patriots. And while those games are included in the Manning-Brady lore, they probably shouldn't be. Tom Brady most certainly did not beat Peyton Manning in either of those games. That distinction would belong to Rodney Harrison, Ty Law and the rest of the historically dominant Patriots defense of the '03 and '04 seasons.
In those two games, they held an in-his-prime Manning to 56.2 percent passing for one touchdown and five interceptions. He averaged just 237.5 yards in those two games, which was nearly 40 yards off his regular-season average in those seasons. In the 2003 AFC Championship Game, Manning was coming off a 304-yard, three-touchdown, zero-interception performance in the previous round; in the '04 divisional round trip to Foxboro, Manning was coming off a 458-yard, four-touchdown day.
The 2003 Colts averaged 27.9 points per game. Against the Patriots, they managed to score just 14 points. The '04 Colts were even better, averaging 32.6 points per game. In Foxboro, they scored a measly three points.
What Bill Belichick's and Romeo Crennel's defenses did in those two games was monumental. Brady, meanwhile, did just fine. He completed 62.5 percent of his 64 total pass attempts, throwing for 237 yards in the '03 playoff meeting and just 144 yards in the '04 playoff rematch. In total, across the two games, he threw two touchdowns and one interception.
So really, for the first half of their careers, it would not be the greatest representation to call it a Brady-Manning duel.
But, again, that changed in January 2007.
During the 2006 season, Brady's Patriots lost to Manning's Colts at Gillette Stadium, which meant that their AFC Championship Game rematch would take place at the RCA Dome in Indy. That night, despite having to throw passes to the likes of Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Heath Evans and Troy Brown on his last legs, Brady was able to get the Patriots out to a 21-3 lead early in the second quarter. A wild game ensued, with Manning's Colts storming all the way back to win 38-34. The Colts went on the Super Bowl, where they beat the Bears.
Granted, Manning didn't have his best statistical performance in that conference championship game, throwing for 349 yards to go with one touchdown and one interception, but he finally had that all-important victory over the Patriots, and he finally was able to earn his only Super Bowl title. (He threw for 247 yards, one touchdown and one interception in that Super Bowl but was named the MVP anyway. But that's a story for another day.)
It was in that offseason that followed when something changed. Whether it was because Brady recognized his skill-set dictated he could do much more with better receivers, whether it was because the Patriots organization and Belichick recognized that the NFL was rapidly transitioning into a passing league, or whether it was a combination of factors, it's hard to say exactly. But it was crystal clear that philosophically, the Patriots and their quarterback changed significantly in the spring and summer of 2007.
In acquiring Randy Moss and Wes Welker for peanuts, as well as adding Donte Stallworth to the mix, Brady had an instant upgrade offensively. Josh McDaniels, Belichick and Brady went to work to design an offense that could carve up the entire league. It worked.
Brady completed 68.9 percent of his passes, after completing 61.9 percent from 2001-06. He threw for 4,806 yards, nearly 700 yards more than his previous single-season high. And he set an NFL record with 50 touchdown passes, besting Manning in the process.
Suddenly, Manning was no longer the only historically great quarterback who could put up numbers. Now Brady, too, was an NFL MVP.
Obviously, Brady hit a setback in Week 1 of the 2008 season, but it did nothing to derail his career.
From 2009-15, in 112 starts, Brady completed 64.1 percent of his passes, averaging 33 touchdowns, 4,512 yards, and nine interceptions per season.
In that same span, Manning has started 89 games, completing 66.8 percent of his passes and averaging 29 touchdowns, 3,759 yards and 12 interceptions per season.
Manning also set a new single-season record for touchdown passes with 55 in 2013, shattering Brady's mark of 50. (Manning ordered his receivers to practice the goofiest, least-spontaneous "celebration" of all time for setting that record, but again, that's a story for another day.)
The difference, of course, has come in the postseason. From 2009-15, Brady and the Patriots have gone 8-5, with Brady throwing 29 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while averaging 284 yards per game. Manning's Colts and Broncos have gone 5-5, with Manning throwing 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 251 yards per game.
Brady's made it to two Super Bowls, while Manning has made one -- which came at the expense of an offensively decimated Patriots team in 2013. Interestingly enough, both Brady and Manning faced the vaunted Seattle defense in consecutive Super Bowls. Manning threw for 280 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a blowout loss; 108 yards, plus his touchdown, came after the Seahawks led 35-0.
Though Brady did throw two interceptions against the Seahawks, he went 13-for-15 for 124 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to lead a remarkable comeback victory, earning Super Bowl MVP honors by throwing for 328 yards and four touchdowns.
This year, Manning is a shell of his former self, losing his job midseason amid suspicious injury circumstances, dealing with reports of HGH being sent to his house under his wife's name, and throwing just nine touchdowns to 17 interceptions. Brady, meanwhile, didn't let his federal court fight with Roger Goodell and the NFL distract him, as he led the league in touchdown passes with 36 and also in interception percentage at 1.1 percent. He threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns last weekend, rushing for another one, while Manning threw for a modest 222 yards without any touchdowns or picks in his divisional round home game.
Now, they're set to meet for the eighth time since the rivalry became a rivalry in 2007. Manning's completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions to go with a 325-yard average; Brady's completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 17 touchdowns and just four picks while averaging 285 yards per game.
Brady's come out with a victory in five of those seven meetings.
But of course, in the two meetings since '06 that have mattered most, Manning's managed to win and earn trips to Super Bowls. To do it again, he'll need to defy physics and physiology, or he'll just have to hand the ball off to his running backs. Barring a last-minute change of heart from Roger Goodell and/or the competition committee, Manning will not have to look Brady in the eye and defeat him mano a mano.
But when both quarterbacks take the field in Denver, both know what's at stake. It's not just a conference championship and a Super Bowl berth; it is likely the final chance for both quarterbacks to make their mark on their historic rivalry.
At this point, it's much too late for the main themes to change. Manning's always going to have the higher cumulative passing totals; Brady will always be more effective with fewer turnovers and, most importantly, more victories.
For Brady, Sunday's game represents another opportunity to add to his legacy as the greatest postseason quarterback of all time -- a journey that looks as though it can and will be extended for at least a couple of more years. For Manning, Sunday presents the chance at one last hurrah, one last opportunity to pull a John Elway and win it all before riding off into the proverbial sunset as a Super Bowl champion.
To do that, though, he'll need to be at his best while knowing that on the other sideline, Brady will be working to figure out how to solve the league's top-ranked defense.
By now, the bulk of the Manning-Brady story has been written. But when the opening kick is sent through the thin Denver air on Sunday afternoon, in terms of the immediate implications as well as the lasting impact on football history, both quarterbacks will know what's at stake.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
