The Arctic Strikes Back!
Morning Lows this morning were -14 in Duluth, -32 in International Falls. Windchills -20 to -40 below zero after 1 to 2 feet of snow. Wow. Cold arctic air has invaded the nation behind this powerful storm which has mercifully taken and inside track and provided us with a simple 2-4" rain fall and balmy air. The cold air has pushed all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico before pushing into New England. It is cooler in Orlando Florida than it is in Boston right now. High temp of 29 in Atlanta today...coldest high temp since December 21st 1976. Two days in the Lwr 50's has been nice, but now a return to reality is on the way!
A cold front is pushing through New England tonight. An upper level short wave is providing enough instability and lift that showers are developing along this boundary. On the cooler side of the front, light snow has developed in Pittsfield, Springfield, Orange, Hartford, Windsor Locks, and Gardner. Worcester will be changing over to snow this evening as well. In fact this upper level disturbance has the potential to provide scattered rain/snow showers across much of the region as the front approaches the coast. As temperatures fall behind the front, there is the potential for black ice to develop after midnight. It could be a slippery commute on some untreated surfaces thanks to lows dropping down into the 20's. The best chance of slick conditions will be 495 westward. Not much is expected, but there will be a few spots picking up a small accumulation on some grassy surfaces tonight.
Seas Southeast of Cape Cod have built up to 20 feet, so the surf is up for surfers and wind surfers brave enough for the elements. I know a few out there! Definitely a bit sick in the head. The ocean calls their names. With the front off the coast Tuesday, the upper low is still over head..expect plenty of clouds mixed with breaks of sun. Breezy conditions with cold air reinforced with WNW winds gusting to 25-30 at times. Highs will be 15-20 degrees cooler with highs 30-35.
Arctic air will continue to funnel with persistent NW winds from aloft down to the ground. The coldest day will be Wednesday with highs near 20 in NW hills to Near 30 on the Cape. Gusty windchills will make temps feel like single digits and teens. Generally cold dry pattern will hold from the middle to end of the week with some increasing sunshine as well as an ever so slight moderation in temp.
Highs will remain below normal with a trough in place over the Northeast. In fact the next 10-15 days will likely average below normal across the east thanks to this blocking pattern we are in.
So far we have gone 290 without any snowfall. Not since March first have we seen any accumulating snowfall in Boston. We have been wondering when is it our turn? Well, something is definitely in the works as many of you already know. The models have been all over the place this early in the game. The timing track and intensity are certainly up in the air at this point...but our models are hinting at a storm coming up the coast this weekend. The 12 Euro has a brief graze early Sunday AM at the coast. The 18 Z GFS has a monster noreaster with upto a foot of snow! BUT the run before showed the storm staying well south of New England and out to sea. At this point it is anyone's guess what will happen...but this weekend's forecast will be something to keep an eye on. We will have more confidence of what to expect by Wednesday and hopefully our guidance will come to at least a more common solution. Again, how these models handle the heat energy in this blocking pattern is not their strength. The closer we get to the event the better data we will all have to work with. Until then get ready to bundle up and prepare for a little black ice for the morning commute tomorrow in areas who see light precip tonight. Have a great week!
11 PM update:
Latest 00Z GFS model has taken a farther south and less amplified track of the weekend storm we are tracking. This is showing no storm for New England. This is one measely model run, but this is coming in line with other models which have been keeping the storm offshore as well. A cautious optimism for a miss from this storm...but certainly plenty of time for this to change in the days ahead....
