Hurley's Picks: Eagles can win Super Bowl by staying grounded
BOSTON -- This week, you'll hear plenty of Philadelphia sports fans singing, "Fly, Eagles, fly!" But if those sports fans want to take in a parade next week, they ought to be calling for their team to stay on the ground.
OK. Just kidding. I wanted to see what it felt like to write the corniest possible opening for this column. Not going to lie. I think I nailed it. And it felt great.
Awkward ledes aside, as we look ahead to the football game that will be the 57th Super Bowl in our nation's history, it does look as though the recipe for an Eagles victory is simple -- at least, in theory.
Step one: Run the ball. Then run the ball some more.
Step two: Pick off a Patrick Mahomes pass and turn it into points.
Much like anything in sports, that's easier said than done. But there's reason believe the Eagles can do it.
Start here: With 147.6 rushing yards per game, the Eagles ranked fifth in the NFL this year. They also ranked fourth in third down conversion percentage (46 percent), and they converted 22 of 32 fourth-down attempts (68.8 percent). They also capitalized on their red zone trips, scoring touchdowns on 40 of 59 trips, a 67.8 percent success rate that ranked third in the NFL.
Or, shortened: The Eagles can run the ball, they can sustain drives, and they can score touchdowns instead of field goals to cap them off.
Those trends have continued during Philly's brief playoff run, as the Eagles have averaged a ridiculous 208 rushing yards per game, while converting an equally ridiculous 51.7 percent of their third downs and scoring touchdowns on 72.7 percent of their red zone trips. This is the recipe for success.
And the Chiefs' run defense might be accommodating.
Kansas City ranked 15th in yards allowed per rushing attempt at 4.35. Their third-down was so-so, ranking 13th at 38.3 percent, but they allowed touchdowns on 67.3 percent of opponents' red zone trips, which was second-worst in the NFL.
The Chiefs were good at preventing rushing touchdowns, ranking fifth in that department ... but they allowed more passing touchdowns than any other team in the league. The Eagles may excel at running they ball, but they can score through the air, too, with Jalen Hurts throwing 22 touchdowns during the season and two in Philly's playoff win over the Giants.
Then there's the interception portion of the program. Patrick Mahomes doesn't throw a ton of them. But he does throw some. And the Eagles have been rather opportunistic, ranking fifth in interceptions this season with 17 of them. They picked off Daniel Jones in the divisional round but didn't pick off any passes in the conference title game ... in large part because the opposing quarterback had a torn UCL and couldn't throw forward passes.
The interception is key to the equation not because the Chiefs are prone to throwing them, but more as a necessary deterrent to Kansas City scoring more points. If you haven't heard, the Chiefs' offense is quite potent. Some would even say they ranked first in yards and points this year, while also ranking first in passing yards passing touchdowns -- which would seemingly be pretty good. That offense will no doubt score points, and Travis Kelce will surely find unfathomably large pockets of open space to pick up chunk yards on third downs. That Chiefs offense ... pretty good.
But the Eagles' defense is good enough to limit the damage. The Eagles boast the best pass defense in the NFL, the second-best overall defense, and the eighth-best scoring defense. Their biggest defensive weakness is on the ground, but that aligns with a weakness for Kansas City. Plus, is Andy Reid going to pin his team's Super Bowl hopes on Isiah Pacheco or Patrick Mahomes?
It's easy to look at the quarterback comparison for this game and decide the Chiefs will win going away. But the Eagles have been whooping teams all year long. The Chiefs are too good to get whooped ... but the Eagles are the better team. If they can just play their game, they'll be champs.
The Line: Philadelphia -1.5
The Pick: Eagles 30, Chiefs 24
Regular season: 125-138-8
Playoffs: 7-5
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
